Sunday Special A Tricky Flop Check in a Mystery Bounty

In Sid Sudunagunta's POTD debut he writes about the biggest tournament he ever played.

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

Hi, I’m Sid Sudunagunta, a recreational player based in the UK. Around 6-7 years ago I started playing online and became increasingly obsessed with poker. It’s my main hobby and I tend to plan my holidays around trips to various series and festivals. Over the last 2-3 years my focus has shifted away from NLH and more towards mixed games, though I’m always conscious that I don’t want to fall hopelessly behind in Holdem; to that end, Punt of the Day has been an invaluable resource. Most mornings start with one or two POTD articles over a coffee, while my cat Dorito bats my coloured pens off the table. I then go to work and try not to forget the lessons I’ve learned.

This hand is from a €3250 mystery bounty at EPT Prague in December 2025. I had won my seat in a satellite earlier that day, it was my first ever 3k and I had a slightly tricky table, sandwiched between two pros. I was finding it tough, had lost a few medium sized pots but had managed to claw my way back to around a starting stack.

EPT Prague €3250 Mystery Bounty (2k+1k)
(600/1.2k/1.2k) (SB/BB/BBA) 30k Starting Stack.
Registration still open. Bounties begin at (1.5k/2.5k)

I open KTo (sorry, don’t remember suits) UTG8 to 2.4k off 33k (27.5bb), BB (pro whose name I don’t know) calls. He covers me.

Flop (6.6k) T♦️8♦️5♠️: He checks, I check.
Turn (6.6k) 7♣️: He leads 5.5k, I call.
River (17.6k) K♥️ He leads 4.5k, I go all in 25.1k, he calls.

BB has J9o and I am eliminated.

What I Thought

Preflop: I thought this was a bottom of range hand 8 handed, would fold full ring.¹

Flop: I didn’t think this was a range bet board; T high favours my range however there are so many draws available and I didn’t fancy facing a check-raise.² I think shallower I would be more happy about betting and getting it all in with top pair if need be, but this stack depth felt a bit awkward.³ I know I need some top pair in my check back range and top pair, K kicker, no diamonds felt reasonable.⁴

Turn: Good card for villain, J9 and 96 get there, they have both of those⁵, I don’t have either (maybe I have J9s?).⁶ They also probably have more sets since I don’t think I would check 88 or 55 back on the flop, probably not TT either, given the connectivity. Villain can have 88, 55 and 77.⁷ They have lots more two pair as well (I only have 87s?).⁸ However they can bluff a lot here, with diamonds and/or hands with a 9 in it.⁹ Even though it’s a big bet I don’t think I should fold top pair here.¹⁰

River: I rivered top two and had intended to go all in if checked to, with SPR just over 1. Facing the block I certainly didn’t plan on folding and tried to decide if they were heavily weighted towards bluffs/thin value. I managed to convince myself they were blocking with bluffs and very thin value +/- some two pair I was now beating. I shoved, they snap called and I left my first ever €3k feeling very sorry for myself.¹¹

What I learned

I looked in GTO wizard at chipEV 28bb effective.

Preflop my hand isn’t a full frequency open, it only opens 30%, I think maybe I can just fold on a tough table but opening it isn’t a mistake.¹²

On the flop I have a pretty significant range advantage, 59.8% and my range bets 87.9% of the time (b60). Regardless of my suits, KTo bets pure (actually, KTo only bets 99.9% but I didn’t have my 1000-sided die to adequately randomise). Everything bets at least a little bit, my lowest frequency cbets are 44 and 65s.¹³

After the flop checks through, villain gets to lead a fair bit on the turn, 36.1% of the time. GTO wizard prefers b111 and leads J9s/o pure (96s/o mix). They can also bet sets, a fair amount of top pair (including things like T4/3/2s) and semi bluff flush draws and straight draws. A lot of 96 is in the check range, as are their two pair combos. Since I’m not supposed to be in this node with KTo, I think the solver analysis isn’t very helpful from this point onwards¹⁴ and in any case GTOw doesn’t block the K river, it plays check or shove. So facing this river block I need to decide what my hand is worth and I think I got that decision terribly wrong.¹⁵ I don’t think I gave villain enough credit for having a polar range and managed to convince myself they were blocking with bluffs and very thin value.¹⁶ But even if that is the case, I don’t think I can expect to get called by worse here, it would need to be exactly a worse two pair.¹⁷ I really don’t like this decision; I came away thinking I got coolered but on reflection I think the shove is way too thin.

While the river jam is the really big punt, I’m also not delighted with my flop play, or rather not understanding the flop strategy at all. I knew the T high board was good for my range, but didn’t realise I could bet at such a high frequency (effectively a range bet), or that my hand could bet pure.¹⁸

If you made it to the end of the post and are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players.

1. I think it’s a fold because you are 4 or 5 levels away from bounties being put in play and surviving to that portion of the tournament is worth a lot. I’d start by getting rid all my marginal VPIPs

2. It’s not quite a range bet board, ten high boards are good for you range, however the final clause gives away what’s off with your c-bet strategy here. You are rather happy if you get check-raised with KT here. Strong one pair hands are amongst the worst hands to play cautiously. It’s hard for the BB to make better top pair, two pair or a set. Worse top pair should often check-raise when you bet, your hand is more than happy to stack off on the flop, but will have trouble navigating turns and rivers unimproved. Bet now.

3. It gets trickier when deeper, but 28bbs is just not deep enough to ever consider folding such strong TP hand.

4. You are shallow enough that you will both stack off bare top pair often enough that slow playing TP with a good kicker is not all that appealing. You’d want to fastplay this one and stick to bluff catching with JT or T9. Similarly you are shallow enough that fastplaying without a backdoor becomes even more important. You don’t need the added equity protection, you might need when deeper stacked because you can stack off your hand right now.

5. You are getting too hung up on nut frequency here. You still have the strongest range and the threshold for stacking off is nowhere close to being a straight. The BB has a straight more often than you, but you have a set a lot more often.

6. I’d open J9s here before I open KTo

7. Your check back range on the flop should have a lot of middle of range hands like say A5s, 77 or AJ with a backdoor flush draw and some traps. You should have a set a lot more often than your opponent here. Checking back a set on the flop is rare, but so is checking the flop with range in the first place.

8. You could have T8s that you raise preflop, but you’d never check the flop back with it.

9. Or hands with a jack in it or hands with a 6 in them or (less likely, but possible) some total no pair no draw air.

10. I think shoving over a turn bet is pretty appealing here, he has two pair and straight more than you, but has a lot of draws, worse top pair or even hands like 98, shoving KT for value and protection seems reasonable.

11. I think the river is a very easy shove and there is not much to consider. He can easily be blocking worse for value and only lose to straights or sets that block the river in a spot where it seems very hard to block the river with a straight or set.

12. I think the combination of it being a tough table and the mild bounty bubble make it a fold, but being one pip too loose to open preflop can never be that costly.

13. The deeper you are the scarier these boards become and the more defensively you need to play because there are a lot of ugly runouts. This shallow there’s just a point where a simple top pair = nuts strategy takes over and you can bet a lot because you have top pair or better so often.

14. You aren’t supposed to have KT here, but you do have some reach of it at 40bb. At 35bb you have reach of QT. You always shove top two in those situations. If you shove the river at 40bb and it’s a pure value bet— not a merge play where you get called by JT, but fold out a set— It’s almost certainly a good play at 28bbs

15. I think you accurately gauged what your hand is worth, but you may have not accurately gauged what his river size means.

16. I am not sure why you aren’t giving him credit for bluffs, thin value and some occasional strong hands, which might count straight, but might count like KJ or T8.

17. In one exact betting line I looked at the solver has some trouble shoving KT because it’s trying to get called by hands like JT, however in that same betting line the solver also shoves K6. There is no merge with K6 where it folds out 87 and gets called by JT, it’s just a straight value shove. I think you’re being far too hard on yourself here and this a run of the mill cooler.

18. I agree that I think the flop is the big error in the hand and preflop is a marginal one. The flop is more or less a range bet and you have a hand that greatly prefers betting. I still think there is some merit to shoving the turn and I might even do it with AT (which I also wouldn’t check the flop with). Lots of people probe the turn too often with second, third and fourth pair and shoving is a good way to put pressure on those probes. The river shove is a slamdunk unless you had a really good live read that made you want to call, a call on the river would be extremely heroic and I would not beat yourself up for shoving the river, the flop check though…