There are bigger punts, but with this being a top player like Mizrachi and it being on the final 3 tables of the Main Event, I think this deserves a mention.
He shoves 19bb from UTG-7, which is completely unnecessary off that stack depth. Raise/folding this should be totally fine. Even if you think the table is overfolding to the shove, he has to get through 6 players still, any 1 of which could hold a hand that dominates yours (as happened).
The solver solution here is actually pretty wonky and involves the HJ mixing check, tiny block and ~2x pot all in. If you resolve it so that the biggest size for IP is b50. 99 without a a heart never folds, but 88 mixes folds and that's because IP has 99-66 quite a bit. I think actual humans are three betting PPs smaller than 99 rarely and pull too much preflop aggression from suited aces. So you're probably up against a hand that has you crushed (TT+) or a hand with has at least 10 outs like AK,A5,A6 or A8+FD. I think it's a good fold.
When you write "This hand seems pretty inconsequential, but the BB’s flop strategy is raise or fold and 76 is pure fold." Why would you raise/fold this spot? And why do you fold pairs on the flop vs. small bet?
When shallow on a lot of dry paired boards you play small raise or fold with your entire continuing range., you have very few "middle of range" type hands mostly trips or bluffs so there is no reason to check/call. Against an UTG range when your opponent has trips ~20-25% of the time you just don't have a strong enough hand to check call with. You don't have the best hand often enough and it's hard to improve to a hand that's a credible bluff catcher on later streets. Having an undercard to the 7 is costly and you would continue 87-K7 with a spade.
1. I don't think you need to fold preflop. You could decide to tighten up and fold marginal defends this deep in the main event, but the call is fine. You defend 76o for chips here and still mostly fold on this flop. You'd also fold on AK7fd or AKQ, sometimes you just hit bad flops
2. I would never fold trips on this runout it's far too strong a hand and blocks a ton of value. The reason why i'd play raise or fold with range on this flop is because we don't really have good hands to x/c down with. 88+ is all in preflop, 7x is already folding to a small bet on the flop. So you'd rather start raising and getting hands to fold, but if you did raise a hand like say JsTs on the flop and paired on the turn, you miight need to check/call down on the turn and the river.
Sorry if this is obvious but in the Kottler Kd2o hand I understand why the Kd is a good card to bluff on turn but why is it a good river bluff card when river wasn't a diamond?
Honestly I am not entirely sure, but digging into it a little. We almost always bet the turn with king high, no pair, no draw, but regularly check back Kx+FD. So we have slightly more bluffs with Kh or Ks on the river than Kd.
She's supposed to pure check the river, but if she decides to have a betting range KJ should beat all her bluffs. I think the main problem here is if someone is supposed to check range and they bet, they usually have a good hand. Also a wild card in the main event could just bet a pair of twos on the river. I think it's a pretty bad river call by Jason, but it's such a small pot it can't be too big a punt
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop/2025-wsop/event-81-10000-wsop-main-event/chips.767961.htm
(no timestamp for video since still ongoing)
There are bigger punts, but with this being a top player like Mizrachi and it being on the final 3 tables of the Main Event, I think this deserves a mention.
He shoves 19bb from UTG-7, which is completely unnecessary off that stack depth. Raise/folding this should be totally fine. Even if you think the table is overfolding to the shove, he has to get through 6 players still, any 1 of which could hold a hand that dominates yours (as happened).
https://www.pokergo.com/videos/wsop-2025-me-day7-table-c-part02
Curious about the hand that starts at 1:52:20
The solver solution here is actually pretty wonky and involves the HJ mixing check, tiny block and ~2x pot all in. If you resolve it so that the biggest size for IP is b50. 99 without a a heart never folds, but 88 mixes folds and that's because IP has 99-66 quite a bit. I think actual humans are three betting PPs smaller than 99 rarely and pull too much preflop aggression from suited aces. So you're probably up against a hand that has you crushed (TT+) or a hand with has at least 10 outs like AK,A5,A6 or A8+FD. I think it's a good fold.
When you write "This hand seems pretty inconsequential, but the BB’s flop strategy is raise or fold and 76 is pure fold." Why would you raise/fold this spot? And why do you fold pairs on the flop vs. small bet?
When shallow on a lot of dry paired boards you play small raise or fold with your entire continuing range., you have very few "middle of range" type hands mostly trips or bluffs so there is no reason to check/call. Against an UTG range when your opponent has trips ~20-25% of the time you just don't have a strong enough hand to check call with. You don't have the best hand often enough and it's hard to improve to a hand that's a credible bluff catcher on later streets. Having an undercard to the 7 is costly and you would continue 87-K7 with a spade.
Thank you, very helpful and really appreciate the response.
Two follow up questions:
1. If you need to fold this hand vs. small bet, should you just fold preflop?
2. What is the weakest hand you would call down with, I assume you need to fold some weak trips by the river?
1. I don't think you need to fold preflop. You could decide to tighten up and fold marginal defends this deep in the main event, but the call is fine. You defend 76o for chips here and still mostly fold on this flop. You'd also fold on AK7fd or AKQ, sometimes you just hit bad flops
2. I would never fold trips on this runout it's far too strong a hand and blocks a ton of value. The reason why i'd play raise or fold with range on this flop is because we don't really have good hands to x/c down with. 88+ is all in preflop, 7x is already folding to a small bet on the flop. So you'd rather start raising and getting hands to fold, but if you did raise a hand like say JsTs on the flop and paired on the turn, you miight need to check/call down on the turn and the river.
Sorry if this is obvious but in the Kottler Kd2o hand I understand why the Kd is a good card to bluff on turn but why is it a good river bluff card when river wasn't a diamond?
Honestly I am not entirely sure, but digging into it a little. We almost always bet the turn with king high, no pair, no draw, but regularly check back Kx+FD. So we have slightly more bluffs with Kh or Ks on the river than Kd.
Koon pays off Groeninger?
https://youtu.be/LIhs83NHFJo?si=3oKrNr5hksFDEdzm&t=774
She's supposed to pure check the river, but if she decides to have a betting range KJ should beat all her bluffs. I think the main problem here is if someone is supposed to check range and they bet, they usually have a good hand. Also a wild card in the main event could just bet a pair of twos on the river. I think it's a pretty bad river call by Jason, but it's such a small pot it can't be too big a punt
How about Boivin vs Seth Davies FT of the 250k where Boivin folds A9o on the river vs 66?
That hand looked reasonable to me, but I might run it for the main newsletter
Okay thanks!