Punt of the World Series Main Event
A Running Thread: Up to Date Throughout the Entire Main Event. We are Done
We at POTD are trying to find the biggest punt of the World Series of Poker Main Event. This post will be a running thread of all the contenders. The comments will be open to all, so if you have a submission, please post it here or reply to this post. If you suggest a hand, please link me to a live update or a video clip or legibly write out the HH. I don’t want to see a million messages that read “Mike Matusow’s bust out hand”. I will also briefly share my thoughts and give a grade, I normally grade on an A-F scale, but that is when I am grading my own play. Here I am grading the size of a punt and will be grading on a 0-100 scale. 0 is a perfectly played hand, 25 is a well played hand, anything over 50 is something with a clear mistake. Grades are a living breathing organism and may change throughout the tournament based on future play, changing my mind and persausion of readers like you. There is no tried and true formula for what makes an 100, but some criteria that will be considered
Stakes matter: Almost every hand played on stream on Day 1A is a hand that if I played myself, I’d give it a D or worse, but a true 100 needs to be for high stakes deep in the tournament. The gold standard for this type of hand is Joe Cheong's bustout hand in 2010
Quality of player matters: I am going to be grading pros who “should know better” a lot harsher than Joe or Jo Pokers on the run of their lifetime. Kristen Foxen's 2024 bustout hand is getting a higher score than Darvin Moon's three bet calling QJs heads up in 20091
Hands where a player is eliminated will be graded harsher than ones where they lose a large chunk of their stack
However, hands where the punter manages to win the hand in spectacular fashion might get an upgrade such as Nicholas Rigby's dirty diaper bluff in 2021
A hand where several players punt will get a bonus
Some hands have a particular Main Event Magic. An ineffable “I know it when I see it” quality. Mark Newhouse busting 9th again on a bluff(?) after declaring he wouldn't do it again. That’s Main Event magic.
Last updated July 17th 2025 9:22 AM EST. Hands Through THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT
Day 10
Day 10 was so quick that there where hardly any punts to note, unless you want to see me analyze every 0.05bb mistake made HU, Instead I will focus on Braxton Dunaway’s bustout hand, which several people insisted I write about. In this week’s Week in Review post, I will countdown the top 10 biggest punts. Let me know your favourites in the comments below.
I suspect Dunaway came into the day with a plan and that was to outlast Kenny and then try to spin up his short stack. His call is bad. I guessed T7s would be close and T8s is a call and was right. Being two pips off is never good, especially with connected hands where pips aren’t linear. The difference in EV between A8 and A7 is about the same as the difference between A7 and A6. That is not true for T8, T7 and T6. I tried to give Grinder a range where HRC would call T6s and the best I could do was 100%-QQ,KK,AA and that makes T6s a breakeven call. That being said, I don’t think Wasnock is a guy you want to get into a folding contest with and trying to gamble to give yourself some breathing room is not that crazy. The EV loss of calling T6s here is about the same as the EV loss of folding Q7s. I’ve seen people fold Q7s in spots like this before who were not met with the level of derision that Dunaway was for calling T6s. 62/100
Day 9
On days 5-8, we had three streaming tables playing for 10+ hours and PokerNews updates of non-TV tables, which gave me a lot of fodder for this Punt of the WSOPME project. Yesterday, 59 hands were played total, and while there was a lot of action, there wasn’t all that much punting. I’ll spare you the preflop play that didn’t lead to consequential pots postflop. You should not defend the BB with 92o or Q4o, or three-bet 73s, but given how often there is overly tight play at WSOPME FTs, the loose play was a welcome sight as a spectator, so I won’t fixate on it here. Today, I will be listing the punts in chronological order. The two biggest pots of the day, the Kenny Hallaert vs. Michael Mizrachi hands, will be getting the full POTD treatment and will be posted on the main blog soon.
A Flop Four-Bet with 62 (Hand #12)
K9 is not the type of hand you want to three-bet the flop with here, because this shallow when you have a gutter to the nuts (unless Hendrix checks back AK preflop), you want to make sure you see turns and rivers where you can make the nuts, and you are rarely folding out a better hand-- Hendrix would almost never raise the flop with ace high, and KT is never folding to a three-bet. You are targeting exactly a 2, which is a hand you can comfortably bluff on a lot of runouts and which almost always checks the turn unimproved and in this case rebluffed you. I’ll give Hendrix credit for sensing weakness and four-betting on the flop. However, once he four-bets to the min, Bojovic needs to call getting 6:1 with a gutshot to the nuts. I always appreciate people trying to run big bluffs at the Main Event FT, but this hand is not the one to bluff with and certainly not the hand to fold to a four-bet with. However, BvB play is very hard, and I’m usually disappointed with the quality of BvB play, so I’ll be a kind grader and give Bojovic only a 70/100.
Giving up Eight High on the River
YouTube clip
The preflop open is too loose, but the river check is the real loser here. Giving up a hand with 0% pot share, which I assume 86 does have, loses around 3bbs in an 11bb pot. Leo should have a lot of ace high, 3x, and 2x, which means you can value bet as thin as 44 here; you also can credibly have a flush. Leo has good instincts but is hardly a calling station, and you cover her at the biggest FT of her life; you’ve got to try to bluff her here. If you’re going to make these loose opens, you’ve got to find ways to win pots like this. 77/100
Another BvB adventure (Hand #23)
YouTube clip
Navigating boards where it’s possible to flop a straight OOP is very difficult. Let’s say you have a hand like two pair on 643. You will have a mediocre bluff catcher on the river if the turn is a two, five, or seven; a three is also not a great card for you. That is almost 1/3rd of the deck you need to fade and that is when you have top two. It is important to keep pots small OOP. For chips, in EQ this board is a pure check with range for the SB; it is probably even more of a check vs. Wasnock, who is not hitting the level of preflop aggression that the solver does, and who has a lot more one-pair hands and one-card straight draws. He bets ~half pot and gets raised to slightly less than half pot versus the chipleader when he is second in chips. He should have checked the flop, but once he gets raised, he should fold now. You can wait until you have a backdoor flush draw if you’d like to continue. The rest of the hand looks fine to me, but Dunaway should have avoided putting in 9% of his stack on the flop. 60/100
Day 8
As we get deeper into the tournament, my threshold for what is a punt is decreasing. There are fewer hands to review and the stakes are higher; even the smallest mistakes cost a lot of money. On Day 8 we didn’t only see one all-time classic level punt, but there were a lot of medium-sized ones as the field was whittled down to 9.
POTD
We Reach a Final Table of 9
Hand Starts at 4:41:00
Usually I try to bury the Punt of the Day in the middle of my update, but today there is no question: the final hand of the day. I do not know how to play 10-handed NL, but when you are fourth in chips, folding 88 UTG seems reasonable. I would likely three bet AK as Bojovic, with a plan to figure it out, but with a general plan of folding to a shove and 5-betting vs a 4-bet non AI. I am a little surprised Bojovic did not rejam with all that dead money out there; AKo really does seem like the magic hand.
Padron’s A6 shove is indefensible; it's possible he literally never has the best hand here and when he’s only shoving 8bbs, he’s rarely getting a fold. This is one of those Main Event magic hands where after 8 long days someone loses their mind and makes a play that is a massive loser. Padron folded JJ with 14 players left, only to go nuts with A6 and 10 people left. 99/100
Bad Preflop Plays
The Grinder Open Shoves 19bbs with AJo and with JJ
AJ Hand Starts at 6:30
JJ Hand Starts at 2:06:10
You don’t open shove 20bbs for chips, unless you are on the button. You’d never do it in a non-satellite tournament, unless you are a big stack. The Grinder found two 20bb open shoves. One with a hand that is too weak and one with a hand that is too strong. So at least he is balanced. Both plays lose a little more than 0.5bbs, which is a greater EV loss than opening 72o in these spots. 77/100
Folding to an 11bb shove with KTs
Hand Starts at 4:18:00
The 44 fold is borderline with the button still to act behind, but loses a small amount for chips. The KTs fold loses somewhere between 0.6 and 0.9bbs– far too big an edge to pass up when you’re only calling off 25% of your stack. Tony Gregg showed down some correct, loose reshoves preflop and actually might be looser than the solver cEV range here. However, I’ve seen so many big folds to small preflop shoves that I never expected to see KTs or 44 call it off. 60/100
You cover your opponent and he has 17bbs in the SB, please just go all-in preflop. Once Perati didn’t shove preflop, he bet the flop and check called the turn and river on QdJd7d2cAd. The river call is technically the best part of the hand, but is still almost certainly not good vs. someone who would have T8o and 98o as two of their most common bluffs and is probably barreling the turn too often with random offsuit diamond hands. The turn and river check might be the only winning plays in this hand. 88/100
Just Go All in Preflop #2
Hand Starts at 26:00
You have AKs preflop and 30bbs, please just four-bet shove preflop. Once you do just flat call pre, I could get behind check-raising the flop or blocking the river, but Padron’s line is fine. But a reminder: Playing AK OOP is very hard, even the computer finds it hard. Just four-bet shove and make life easy for yourself. 78/100
Just Go All in Preflop #3
Hand Starts at 3:10:00
I’ll repeat what I said above. You have 26bbs behind and AK there are 13.5 BBs in the pot. Playing AK OOP is hard. Please just go all-in. Just calling in this spot loses over 1bbs, you might get him to fold pocket eights. Please shove. 80/100
Just Go All in Preflop #4
Hand Starts at 1:45:00
In the previous AK hands, AK was fortunate enough to flop a pair. Here we see the perils of not going all-in with a clear shove. The button raises off 25bbs; you cover him and should be reraising with every pair. Once again, just calling here loses over 1bb, and he played the hand postflop in a way that let him get bluffed off the best hand. Because he got bluffed, I’m grading this worse than the AK hands. 85/100
Just Go All in Preflop #5
Hand Starts at 3:11:00
This one is the most defensible non-shoves and I suspect ICM agents would mix three-bet/folds in this spot. However, I think the best exploit here is clearly jamming. You might be facing a button who would open 54s type hands and certainly against a button who will call a three-bet with J8s. Just jam and take it down, if he has it he has it. 51/100
Wrong Hand to Three Bet
Hand Starts at 4:22:00
This shallow, you don’t want to three-bet a hand that has such poor high-card value. Can’t fault a guy for trying to sneak one through with 54s, but it’s the wrong hand to do it with. 66/100
How Is This Pot So Small?
Leo's Lead Freezes Dunaway
Hand Starts at 3:05:50
Leo could raise preflop here, but limping is fine. Leo’s river lead really doesn’t make sense here. If she check/calls twice, it’s much more likely her opponent has top pair that rivered trips than her. However, if her lead was designed to slow down Dunaway, it’s an expert move, because Dunaway not raising the river is a terrible play. No money has gone into the pot, and he has trips with a kicker that plays; his range is uncapped, so he’s not worried about getting three-bet shoved on; and if Leo shoves, Dunaway has a totally reasonable hand to call with. It’s hard for me to give this an extremely bad grade because we’ve seen people fold this caliber of hand, but I can’t believe this pot is so small. 80/100
Mega Cooler, but no one busts
Hand Starts at 15:30
I can’t believe Minghini did not stack Perati here. I think there is a funny dynamic where Minghini thought Perati had KK-JJ and was trying to milk him, so he didn’t want to bet too large and spook him off, and instead Perati just called with a hand where just calling loses well over 2bbs. However, the flop is a much heavier check with range than I expected from Perati and the turn check is pure form Minghini, which are two very tough plays to find. So I will give them credit for that, but the river is unbelievable so they’re included in the blog. 77/100
Loose Calls
Call-Call-Fold
Hand Starts at 5:15:00
This hand seems pretty inconsequential, but the BB’s flop strategy is raise or fold and 76 is pure fold. Once you get to the turn, I’d probably pure fold versus such a large bet, but calling is okay. What’s bizarre to me is calling the flop and the turn only to fold a brick river. Maybe he picked up a live read when Dunaway snap shoves the river, but outside of having a great live read on the river, calling the flop and turn here only to fold the river doesn’t make that much sense 60/100.
Bad Bluffs
Bluffing with the Best Hand
Clip Starts at 5:21:00
This river bluff doesn’t lose much EV. I guess Pisarenko is trying to target a 2, maybe Dunaway betting exactly 2M on the turn gave Pisarenko a reason to believe that Dunaway had a 2. This deep in the Main Event, I think bluffing a hand with this much showdown seems crazy. I was going to give this a pretty low grade, but once I made the 2M bet to 2 on the turn connection, I will give Pisarenko some credit for going with a sizing read, although I’d still prefer a bigger size to put even more pressure on a 6 or 2. 62/100.
Leo Margets bluffs with Jack High
Hand Starts at 3:10:00
When I watched this hand something felt off so I looked it up. Bluffing the river doesn’t lose much, but that is because the SB is supposed to lead the river over half the time because they have nines full of aces so often. Dunaway didn’t immediately check on the river so it’s possible he was considering leading. However, the real punt here is Dunaway check-raising the river. I think Leo rarely has quads or AA; however, I think it’s a lot more likely she has quads or aces than she will value bet the river and call a raise with TT-KK. Minor punts, but punts all around, so I will give this hand a 58/100.
Tight Folds
Wasnock Barrels an Open Ender
Hand Starts at 2:27:25
I’m mostly including this hand to rant about the PokerNews update that talks about Wasnock using his image. This man three bet 54s off 25bbs earlier in this blog. He might not be Adrian Mateos, but he’s hardly a nit. People often confuse not making aggressive solvery type plays with being a nit, but Wasnock appears to be reasonably aggressive. Stop profiling old people as tight, it’s no longer 2002.
HJ vs. CO is supposed to be a very low frequency c-bet spot, but the population loves betting a pair, flush draw or straight draw and Wasnock is not betting very large. KT is a fine hand to two-barrel, and vs. 40% pot AJ is making almost 1bb calling the turn for chips. KT is supposed to bluff every river 2-8 that isn’t a spade. If you think your opponent is betting too many draws and might not follow through with them, calling the turn is worth even more, and Padron snap folded. 64/100
Day 7
Voegle Snap Calls with a Straight
I can’t grade this one without knowing the whole hand, but if you have a hand that is an appealing river three-bet, you should probably think about three-bet shoving the river for long enough that your opponent can verbalize a bet size.
Afriat Folds a Full House
Clip Starts at 2:55:00
I already declared Nex folding a straight on the river as one of the worst folds in the Main Event. This is one of the worst folds of all time. A common trend in WSOPME hands is very small river raises. Afriat bets 60% pot and gets raised less than half pot, when an appropriate raise size would probably be somewhere in between full pot and all-in. When facing this small raise, I’d be thinking about how large my river three-bet should be, and Afriat is not just thinking of folding, but he did fold. To add insult to injury, his opponent lies to him and says he has 99, which I also think is a punt. You want Afriat on fire tilt; don’t tell him he made a good fold. It took 7 days, but we have our first 100/100.
Afriat Fold Two Pair
Clip Starts at 21:00
Not as bad a fold as the full house fold, but we can maybe chalk that one up to him misreading his hand. This fold loses ~8bbs vs the solver. You have four outs to the nuts, you cover your opponent by a lot and aren’t risking that much of your stack, and you often have the best hand. This fold is very bad, 90/100.
Afriat Folds Top Pair
Clip Starts at 1:03:00
This fold is not as bad as the other ones, but it still loses 5.5bbs, and he was a favourite to chop. Another disastrous fold; this would be fine vs a CO open, but you can’t fold vs a button open. 80/100
Afriat Folds Top Pair Again
Starts at 1:28:30
Finally, we’re getting somewhere close. Continuing here only makes ~0.5bbs, and folding is tight, but reasonable.
Schulze finally punts himself
Clip starts at 1:49:50
Schulze has been on the receiving end of two of the largest punts of the tournament, so it’s about time he punted himself. You don’t really beat value with AQ, but you occasionally chop with value. The bigger problem here is that you need to call with something; if you’re folding AQ on the river, you’re folding the river around 75% of the time. You chop with value, you might beat value, you beat all his bluffs and block his value bets. All these combine to a point where folding the river is at least a 10bb mistake. 87/100
The Grinder Shoves with an Open Ender (Pokernews update has the wrong board it is two diamonds, one club)
Clip starts at 1:21:41 any earlier and you need to see Kassouf's exit interview. You have been warned
One of those plays that doesn’t lose as much EV as you’d think, but can’t possibly be part of any reasonable poker strategy in a multiway pot for chips or in a tournament or exploitatively. 72/100
Chad Power Hero Calls AK high
Clip Starts at 15:30
The turn call is the real mistake here. The river call is fine, but when facing a 145% pot bet, you do not need to call the turn with a hand that is drawing dead vs most of your opponent’s value range. This is especially true with 36 players left in the Main Event. 68/100
Leo Margets folds 99
Clip Starts at 1:24:00
Leo might have had a live read that her opponent was generally tight or strong in the moment, and she was right. However, I find it very hard for a fold this big to be correct, because you need to be very confident your opponent doesn’t just have AK or AQ or KQs. I’m including this because I am trying not to be wholly results-oriented, and if I’m going to include every bad fold that makes the folder look like a dunce, I’ll include a couple that make them look like a genius. 60/100
Day 6
Tajou gets all-in with J3 and does not air hump a chair
Joined in progress at 2:02:00
I appreciate the PokerNews report with all the details here, but the PokerGo clip tells the whole story. When you’re all-in with J3o on T54, something has gone horribly wrong. Loose preflop play and a much looser flop play. 85/100
Nex folds a straight and also jacks
Clip starts at 4:02:00 (Jacks fold is at 18:40)
Nex is trying to single-handedly ruin the reputation that young Europeans are well-studied solver players and very aggressive. He correctly folded JJ preflop earlier in the day in a spot where he should not have, but it was at least the right fold in the moment. The second big fold he makes is something else. Before I analyze this hand, I’d like to thank the SB for missing the pure reshove with 22, allowing a much bigger punt to unfold on the river.
He is supposed to pure raise the turn, and not doing so loses a little bit of EV. The river fold is of course the big punt here. 76 is supposed to have 87% equity on the river; calling is supposed to make somewhere around 60bbs on the river. This is not one of those main event hands where “the solver says it’s making xyz, but actually this guy always has a full house.” For one, Schulze is running a pretty ambitious three barrel bluff; for two, I have no doubt that he could value-bet a jack for this size. If I was tanking this long with 76, it’s because I would have been spending an unreasonably large amount of time determining whether calling is better than sticking in my final 3bbs. I can’t believe he was not just thinking of folding, but did it. This is one of the worst folds in the history of the Main Event. 98/100.
Will Kassouf quietly folds a straight in 10 seconds
Hand Starts at 45:00 mark
I’ve played with Will Kassouf and he is unbearable. His antics during this Main Event were an embarrassment to watch. However, the WSOP putting him on a 10 second clock was also embarrassing. I don’t know why the WSOP can’t ever find an appropriate punishment, and they can only do nothing at all or punish someone much too harshly. Giving anyone, even Will Kassouf, a 10-second clock in a non-shot clock tournament with 87 people left in the Main Event is draconian and unfair.
The hand starts with a bad c-bet from Beckenstein and ends with a ridiculous bluff. What is he representing here? Is he really check-calling the turn with a set? Why does the queen blocker even matter? Will rarely has QQ here, and Beckenstein should have a reasonable amount of showdown on the river. He even chops with KQ and QJ. However, the insane part of this hand is Will’s fold. If you’re deciding to VPIP 94o and have less than 30bbs, you should never fold a two-card straight on the river, the end. The way Will folded, it’s like he didn’t even realize how big a fold it was. This is as bad as the other fold with a straight, but I’ll give Will a pass because he was on a 10 second clock. 96/100
Not much to say here. Don’t fold TT to a single raise with 11bbs. 80/100
A Big Shove With a Bare Open Ender
Clip starts at the 20:00
He limp/called preflop and check/called the flop before leading AI on the turn for around 300% pot. If this were called, it would be one of the punts of the tournament, a totally avoidable way to play a giant pot, but since he got a fold, it doesn’t rise to Punt of the Tournament. If the CO ever bet/folds the turn, check-shoving is better than open shoving. Then you can at least win a turn bet from the CO. 88/100
A Big Fold with JJ
Clip starts at 1:06:00
I assume most people reading this newsletter know you’re not “supposed” to limp UTG, but there are times when it can be a pretty good exploit at a table-- for instance, if your limp tricks the HJ into raising QTo (a pure fold by a lot) and the BB into jamming 26bbs with KTo (also a pure fold by a lot). The problem is, you need to call with JJ after limping. Had JJ called, I’d probably be writing this entry about KTo’s shove; instead, I am writing it about JJ’s fold. Which is probably a slightly better played hand than the JTs Wheeler played. 85/100
4bets with 33
Clip starts at 2:50:30
33 is not a hand you ever want to four-bet bluff with. It plays well in three-bet pots because it flops concentrated equity, which is a fancy way of saying you can flop a set. It is occasionally a hand you want to four-bet shove with because it’s doing okay vs. AK and AQ. If you four-bet non-all-in with it, you probably need to call a shove. 33 only needs 29% to continue, and ICM pressure isn’t that extreme. Even if he should fold to the 4-bet jam, the size is poorly chosen because it makes calling a shove so appealing. This is a really bad way to lose an extra 900k without seeing a flop. 82/100
A Big Fold with Trips
Hand Starts at 3:48
The turn lead is not really a play from the BB here. When you find an unconventional turn lead to make the pot extra big with a good hand, and then end up folding on the river anyways when the shove is for around 1/3rd pot, you’ve played the hand with one of the costliest strategies possible– putting a lot of money in the pot and folding anyways. He had an easy way to win the hand, he just needed to check/call the turn or shove over IP’s turn raise. Instead, he found a way to lose the maximum. This fold could be a 20+bb mistake. 95/100
Eric Afriat bets Jack high into a dry side pot twice
One of the first lessons I learned in poker was “don’t bluff into a dry side pot.” That’s not entirely true; there are classes of middle-of-range hands that can get one player to fold a better hand while still having equity in the main pot. This is not what is going on in this hand. If Afriat doesn’t improve, he wins the hand 0% of the time with jack high. He can only win the main pot if he improves, and there is no reason to try to get Bruno out of the hand. There is a marginal benefit to getting him to fold, say, AJ, because you can clear up two outs for yourself when Williams has AK. That is tiny compared to the downside risk: You might get all-in for a chiplead pot with the worst of it. The way this board ran out, Afriat was always gonna scoop the pot, but he made sure he was going to bust the tournament if he bricked out. He broke one of the first lessons I learned in poker, but he also got in a bunch of money with an OESFD, which can never be too bad a play. We have some more Day 7 punts from Afriat coming up, but this one is a 81/100
Day 5
Yesterday I was disappointed that all the big punts were really tight folds. Today, we don’t have that problem, we have some good old fashion torches. There are so many to write about that I need to keep this preamble short.
No grade, because I don’t know the action, but that is a lot of money to get in with a bare gutshot on a double FD board. A reasonable candidate to two barrel and bluff shove the river, but shoving is a punt
Another punt on a double FD board
I’d guess the action here is LRC BvB, x/c flop, x/rai ott. There is no reason to checkraise the turn with J8, you are ahead of his bluffs and dead vs his value. Let’s see what Michael Hawker does with his chiplead.
Brad Owen busts. Another hand on a double FD board
Hand starts at 3:17:42
I’m going to write about this one for the main blog, getting a lot of money in with a big draw like this can never be too bad, but this is not the way to do it. 70/100
Someone limpraises UTG is that strong?
I have to give credit to Bryan Chen. I’ve seen it all in my time in poker, but it’s really rare to see someone 4bet bluff shove into an UTG limp raise. I don’t think this is “just bad luck” that he ran into it, however if UTG is limpraising hands that KJo does okay versus, like AQs, shoving KJo is a 4 alarm torch instead of a 5 alarm torch. 84/100
This could be a massive punt that got lucky or a great exploit. Not close to POTWSOPME, but I wanted to share this excellent hand. I love that he windmills over a bluff and seems to sincerely apologize to his opponent for bluffing him. Great poker hand, not necessarily a punt 51/100
Greg Merson Fold #1 Fold #2 Fold #3
Hand 2 starts at 2:45, Hand 3 starts at 4:02
I’ve met Greg a handful of times and like him. Generally I like spreading the wealth around and if someone is going to win $10,000,000, I’d like to root for someone I like and someone who hasn’t already won $10,000,000 (8.5M technically). So I was agnostic on whether or not I should root for him. Then I saw him fold three three pure calls where he was bluffed every time and he’s been downgraded from “slightly rooting for” to “slightly rooting against”. Some good play from Day 6 onwards could get me to change my mind.
Hand 1 looks appears to be WP by both, but AJ mixes on the river vs a larger bet and I think snap folding without thinking about it and seeing a chop is pretty brutal
Hand 2 you are getting such a good price that you have enough equity to call vs hands he could be value raising here. The board is connected enough that certain rivers will kill action and not that much money will go into the pot and the guy was actually bluffing you with a reasonably ambitious bluff.
Hand 3 is also quite close. It makes almost nothing to continue and a lot of Qx/Jx fold. However combined if you get bluffed three times on streams with hands that pure continues. You get some sort of Nit Trophy for the day 70/100
However the nit trophy of the day goes to Roy Monahan. He open folded 88, he open folded AJo, he folded A6 suited in the BB facing a minraise. He has the two other folds pictured above. He hasn’t cashed a live tournament since 2017, so I don’t want to beat him up too much, but when you make five preflop folds that make me double take, including one that cost you a triple up. You get an entry in POTD 80/100
Azolay Folds Top Pair
Hand starts at 33:15
Sverko has shown some aggression and you’re facing a third pot raise. You have top pair with backdoor straight and flush draws. You cannot fold. Folding here loses around 10bbs vs the solver and you cover Sverko by 2M chips. This fold began a downward spiral from Azoulay and he did not make day 6. What could have been? 85/100
If Jung wanted to bluff he could have at least picked a larger size that would have put pressure on value bets. He has enough chips behind where he could have made life really tough for Hobold’s overpairs. Instead he makes a bluff that might only get other bluffs to fold. He probably just should have folded the flop and he definitely should have folded the river. I think this is a really bad bluff, but I’ve seen a lot of people make some really big folds so I’ll give it a slightly more favourable grade 88/100
Fabrice Bigot can make some big calldowns and might frequently lead the river if he backdoors a flush. You cover him by a lot. Checking the river here is a ~3bb mistake and while there are circumstances in the main event where I could be convinced checking is best. Not versus this opponent with these stack configurations.
I think factoring in stakes, we have the biggest punt of the tournament thus far. The first hand is a brutal cooler and there’s nothing 99 could do. Schulze could have worse for value or be bluffing. The second hand begins with a very loose preflop call, that’s not even a good type of hand to expand your range with. I’d call 32s before I call K6o here. Once you get raised on the turn Schulze is representing a bluff or a hand that has you drawing dead. Many of his bluffs wil havel equity versus you, but denying them equity is not worth so much you’d want to shove 200% pot. There is no reason to shove any hand on the turn, but certainly not a bare 6. I tried to see how much EV shoving a 6 lost, but the number the solver spat out is meaningless, because the solver never shoves and the CO response in this fake node involves regularly folding flushes, but occasionally calling sets. Getting boat over boated happens, but it does not need to be a tournament defining moment for you. If you’re on such tilt that the very next hand you make a horrible preflop call and then get in 80bbs drawing dead. That is a punt for the ages 97/100
Kottler goes wild with K2o
YouTube
In a shocking turn of events, I am going to defend this hand. The preflop play is terrible. Calling the flop checkraise, also terrible. The rest of the hand, totally fine. He almost got 55 to fold and his common bluffs for chips are hands like Kd6d. There’s a weird mechanic on the river in the hand where Chen is frequently supposed to lead all in because he has a lot more Jx than Kottler, but even if you force Chen to check Kottler still bluffs hands with the Kd regularly. We’ve seen tons of punty preflop play and calling the flop check raise is not the move, but the turn and river bluffs are good poker players and he almost got a fullhouse to fold. 73/100
Chen raises, Padron three bets, Chen four bets non-AI, Padron calls and check folds the flop. Please just 5bet shove or fold preflop. Playing AKo OOP with 1.5x pot to play is very hard to do. I think there are players in the main event you could hero fold preflop to, but calling is clearly the worst option here. However I expect to see a hand like this on day 5 of the main event every year. 60/100
To me, this is a much worse hand than Kottler with K2o. Two very bad preflop calls followed by a bad flop call, and then you get hero called on the river. At least Kottler made Chen tank with a fullhouse. 92/100
Hyul goes nuts with AdTd
Hand starts at 4:49
Tahiou(3.1m) UTG+1 raises KsTs to 65k, Hyul(1.9m) AdTd calls from the SB, Michael Mizrachi(3.6m) BB 6c3h calls
FLOP (225k): 8sKh5s: Hyul checks, Mizrachi checks, Tahiou bets 65k, Hyul makes it 180k, Mizrachi folds, Tahiou calls.
TURN (585k) 9s: Hyul bets 265k, Tahiou calls
RIVER (1.15m) Kc: Hyul bets, 450k Tahiou calls
To compare this to the K2o bluff. K2o is a much worse preflop hand, but at least turn and river bluffs are both credible and he has good cards to be bluffing with. In a three way pot you need a spade or a boat blocker or to at least bet a larger size on the river that might generate a fold. The only hands he is really targeting here are hands like AsQx or hands like TT-QQ with a spade. I’ve seen people make crazy folds in the main event, but Tahiou does not seem like that guy. 90/100
Day 4
I thought the types of punts we’d see on day 4 would lean more towards lighting stacks on fire, but it turns out we’d see a series of baffling folds that were bad in theory and every one included here was also the best hand (technically AKo folded preflop when 55 was in there, but you know what I mean) when they folded.
Let’s start with a punt that was sent to me by a couple Twitter users
Despite the PokerNews headline, this hand easily could be made up. T8 offsuit is a bad hand to three bet and the way he got all in postflop is not the way to do it, but once you flop second pair in a three bet pot and have 3x pot to play, getting all in is not that unreasonable … if your opponent is capable raise folding the flop around 30% of the time like the solver HJ does.
The solver doesn’t have Ts8h here, but it does have Ts8s and once they blocked the flop and got raised it would pure call the flop raise, check call or check shove the turn with a gutshot and check/call all-in on the river for quarter pot. Bad preflop play with T8o, but shoving the flop only loses 1bb and not nearly as bad as it appears. 66/100
Folding AK preflop to Stephen Chidiwck
2HR 41M of Part 1 of PokerGo footage
This hand is from the 2HR 41 Minute mark of part 1 of the PokerGo Footage. Just go all in with AK you have 60bbs and there are 15 in the pot and I’ve heard Stevie can three bet squeeze with air sometimes. 75/100
17M mark of Part 2 of PokerGo footage
You could fold some Jx on the flop, but not Jx with a backdoor flush draw and not AJ. Boivin was bluffing with a hand that had three outs vs Ramsey and there’s no reason Boivin couldn’t be raising a worse J himself. This fold is very costly. 70/100
1H 23M of Part 2 of PokerGo footage
UTG9 raises the LJ flats and the HJ squeezes 99 off 33bbs, UTG9 fold, the LJ flats TT again and check folds to a shove on 632. If you wanted to hero fold TT preflop it would be very tight, but is a solid play versus the right opponents. Once you call and hit such a good flop. You gotta go with it. Parsi has to be kicking himself. 87/100
Mariwalla folds the Nut Flush Draw
2 HR 0 Min in PokerGO stream Part 2
Some big folds people make are because they don’t want to risk their tournament life. This is not one of them. He declares “I had the nut flush draw”, so we know he didn’t misread his hand. If he had to call the raise and was not allowed to put money in the pot unless he has the nuts. He should still call the raise. This is a good reminder that even a guy who folds TPTK, can still bluff and you cannot fold a nut flush draw to anyone facing a less than half pot raise.
Nine high like an annoying chatter box Preflop Flop
3HR 0M in part 2 of PokerGo footage
Captain Thomas Kelly is a former firefighter with $56 in lifetime cashes before the Main Event. Thank you for your service, Captain Kelly, but when you have 30bbs and the third best preflop hand in a hand where one player is opening 95o, please, just go all-in. When you get to the flop, please at least call one bet. Will Kassouf has 2.5M chips, I have no idea why he is raising 95o or calling a three bet. I suspect we will see a bigger punt from him than this later in the tournament. 91/100
Francis Anderson has the wrong reads on Eric Afriat
3H 15M in part 2 of PokerGo footage
Eric Afriat has been around for a while and has played on stream during this main event. If you’ve played with him for an orbit, you know you cannot fold AdJd to Eric Afriat here. Francis says “KT that’s it”, if you think that’s that case you still might need to call, but you certainly don’t know how Eric Afriat plays. 75/100
Day 3
As we approached the bubble we saw some cautious play and not too many spectacular punts, I suspect that will change in the coming days once players have locked up a $5k profit.
I can’t imagine calling a three bet here, flopping top pair and then folding the flop. Maybe you picked up a live read, but then you got shown K5s. It’s a really big mistake, but it’s a small pot. 75/100
There will be no number grade because we did not see the whole hand— I wish we could see the whole hand. I’d guess Hellmuth three bet, bet twice and gave up. It’s always good to go after one of the best players in the world with one of the worst hands in poker. I bet when Hellmuth is bemoaning the “one outer” that knocked him out of the tournament, he won’t mention torching 25% of his stack with 73 offsuit.
Leon Sturm gets bluffed by Michael Garner
Poker News Update
Leon was the recipient of a Phil Hellmuth punt, but he’s not immune to punting a little himself. I bet Leon knows that Garner is supposed to play big bet or check on the flop and Leon tried to exploit Garner potentially auto-cbetting a small size on the flop. Leon got a little greedy and opened the door to let Garner bluff him. 51/100
Folding here loses 2bbs vs the solver. Daniel started the hand with 16bbs. His opponent made a loose bluff shove. There are probably hundreds of worse preflop folds that were made in the WSOPME, but this one involves a famous player and was on stream. 65/100
Chance Kornuth's Main Event Run Ends
I’m mostly including this one because Stapes suggested I write about it and because Chance prides himself on being a live read specialist. 88 is a mixed call on the river at equilibrium, but not versus this customer. I had the benefit of seeing Luke Chung’s hole cards, and saw that he just limp folded 54s BvB. Chance had the benefit of playing with him for several hours and I think he could have solved the puzzle and concluded that Chung is not a bluffer. This hand is interesting enough that it might get the main blog treatment in coming days.
Day 2D
Folding Trips on Stream for less than pot on the river
BU vs SB if you have a 9 on A9792 and pot to play you cannot fold. Folding here is probably losing more than 10bbs and he got bluffed, by a bad combo to bluff with, which means Neilson is certainly over bluffing. 80/100
Folding a Set on Stream for a 30% pot raise on the river
Cabrinini raises UTG9 2k, Adeniya calls 9♠️9♥️ UTG7 2k, Hadad calls HJ A♦️8♣️.
Flop 9♦️5♦️2♦️ (8.5k): Check, Adeniya 2.5k, Hadad 6.5k, fold, call
Turn 7♥️ (21.5k): Adeniya checks, Hadad 12k, Adeniya calls
River K♣️ (45.5k): Adeniya leads 14.5k, Hadad 37k, Adeniya folds.
In theory monotone boards play really cagey when deep. In theory players don’t overcall A8o in the HJ facing an UTG9 raise and UTG7 flat. The river block from Martins Adeniya and snap folding to a raise when he needs 19% equity to call is crazy. If you’re so worried about getting raised, why block in the first place? Just check. Once you get raised why are you snap folding a set? You’re getting an amazing price. Given that Hadad would probably not have overbet the river, Adeniya found the one line that let him get bluffed off this hand. If this were played by a recreational player it wouldn’t be on my radar, but from a pro who is Daniel Negreanu's Player to Watch. It’s a punt 85/100
Folding KK facing a three way all-in
Tristan Wade is still mad that he had to watch this KK fold. KK should have three bet pre and folding the flop to this action is rough. I’ll also add that while TT played this hand fine O’Brien has already seen (YouTube) Graham played a hand oddly with a medium strength pair. So even if it were the type of hand where you could hero fold an overpair, Graham is not the right customer. 93/100
Rob Kuhn makes ACR ask. Should we rehire Nacho?
Per the Pokernews update
"This might be the worst played hand ever," he said to himself while thinking.
Rob said it not me. That’s a lot of BBs to get all in with not a very good hand. Raising the flop is fine, but not necessary, raising the turn is a torch. I guess you beat bluffs on the river, but it’s a spot where it’s very hard to be bluffing as the PFR. 91/100
I don’t know the action, here, but either A7 made a bizarre turn check or QJ check-called the turn and led the river ensuring he got stacked for some reason. No grade because I do not know the action, but I am including it in case Maurice sold 200% of himself for the Main Event.
Bet Folding Top Pair vs Nut Low
When someone is raising 43o and declaring they want to bust the tourmanet. You should not take a line that makes it more likely you fold top pair.
Hero Call and Crazy Value Shove
I do not understand this hand. I know Sean is playing very wide preflop, but this is not heads up no limit. Sean is value shoving a hand that is supposed to have 31% range vs range. I know Sean has a wildly different preflop range, which includes a not more unpaired lowcards, however when the baseline is. Sean value shoves a hand that has 31% range vs range equity for value and Shabelnyk calls with worse. It’s hard for this not to be a punt from both sides. I’d bet Shabelnyk thinks the Ah blocker is good because it can be in Sean’s value, but shouldn’t be in his bluffs. Do you really think Sean is just going to wave the white flag with a missed NFD here? A river played baffingly on both sides 79/100
A very thin river bet from A7, gets looked up by K7. At least wait for KQ Jon. 68/100
Day 2ABC
Folding the second nuts to one bet
Mr. Elliot did not realize he had a straight and folded it to a small bet. As bad a mistake as you can make, but since it was a careless error of misreading your hand and not a full on punt. It’s not really in contention for the biggest punt of the series, but it’s certaintly one of the most avoidable ones. 90/100
The type of citizen journalism we want at POTD
I want as many details about this hand or hands like it as possible
Day 1D
Chopped Pots Can Still be Punts
I love this hand so much. A 2 minute hand likely involving two -50bb mistakes where they both had the same hand. Had a Feder backdoored a flush this would be a real contender, but since he didn’t. I’ll give is a 92/100
5 betting KJo (The Second Hand in the Update)
5betting KJo over a cold four bet is a special play. Calling the 5bet with AQo is also a bad play in theory, but a good play vs someone who might have KJo. Postflop is standard. If Da ends up going on a deep run this could be upgraded, but for now 75/100
Getting in a lot of money preflop with a bad hand is something that often happens, but JTo not just bad beating QQ, but having it dead on the turn is funny to me. Mostly posting this here in case Mr. Kim goes on a deep run. I’m also keeping an eye on Mr. Ho 80/100
An instant classic stream hand, especially since the PokerGo crew interviewed him after the fact and caught him walking around The Horseshoe telling his bad beat story, you can watch the hand here and watch Blez recount it here. If Locquet goes on a deep run, this grade could easily be upgraded. For now, I’ll note a minor technical thing here, the five bet and six bet sizes here are way too large. However given we’ve seen people get in a lot of money preflop with JTo, AQs and KJo, I don’t think this is quite as big a punt as some other plays, but when you make quads and bust one of poker’s more colourful characters in chip lead pot. It get’s an upgrade 84/100
The three bet with 66 is an odd play, calling the four bet is fine, but not if you think you need to bluff 66 on a ten high board and Andrew King verbally says “I do not believe you” before calling, which is worth some bonus points. However this kind of looks like a normal poker hand 66/100
It’s never good to fold to a half pot shove and be shown a worse value bet. An extremely costly and bad fold, but since I don’t know the whole action I’ll refrain from grading it.
Everyone roasted Faraz for three betting 72o into QQ. Ben openeed T8o (presumably because he thought there were tight players behind) then 4bet facing a three bet and bluffed off more than half his stack vs another professional poker player. I’ll give this ten worse than Faraz. 82/100
Day 1C
Natalie Hof-Ramos folds two pair
Folding two pair here loses 8bb in vs the solver. Her opponent is supposed to frequently three bet AK on the flop and she did. This is a very bad fold. There were probably dozens of similarily bad folds made and Natalie had the misfortune of playing this one on stream and catching my attention. Also I needed some representation from Day 1C. 78/100
Day 1B
T9 on QT9: Time to get 300bbs all-in
Grading on a sliding scale because this person clearly doesn’t know how to play poker. They had so many opportunities to not get all-in here. They don’t even have top set or a backdoor flush draw. 93/100
Day 1A
Faraz's Jaka's 72o Three Bet
Bad three bet preflop, flop and turn look fine, he could maybe hero fold the river and probably should vs someone who you thought you could exploit by three betting 72o pre. I’ll get cute. 72/100
Faraz Jaka folds a flush to a set
Horrible theory play and got shown a worse value hand, but “in theory” his opponent shouldn’t fast play too many non nut flushes and if Faraz had a read his opponent was strong, the read was right as his opponent did have top set. 80/100
Top Pair Top Kicker on the First Hand: All-in]
Grading on a sliding scale because it’s early in the tournament and this person clearly doesn’t know how to play poker. If they had a backdoor flush and this wasn’t the main event this is almost defensible. 82/100
Considered, but not Contending
Matt Hunt's Big Call
I can’t grade this as I don’t know the action, but this bluff and call both seem like very big punts. However if your opponent is making a bunch of punty bluffs, calling with any bluff catcher is reasonable.
Bin Weng rockets to a big stack
Preflop is mistake here, but the flop and turn look fine. The river call is insane, but if you make a giant hero call with an okay bluff catcher and your opponent has an ambitious bluff themselves. Had he called and lost this would be in contention, but since he called and won I’ll be kind. 65/100
Jason three bets KQs, flops a flush draw and check shoves the turn for around pot with a flush draw and almost got top pair to fold. Maybe just calling is better, but this is not “clearly bad”. 40/100.
Aces vs Kings Part 1
Aces vs Kings Part 2
The thing about these hands are in theory, even for 300bbs deep KK should stack off to AA sometimes. In practice some players in the WSOPME would literally only 4b or 5b with AA, but in reality some players 4,5,6 bet with hands like KJo, JTo, 66,99 (read above) Maybe KK could have folded in these hands, but I can’t give a grade much worse than 51/100 for either.
This is the flipside of the AA vs KK coin. This is a fine bluff in theory, but if you can’t get your opponent to fold AT on the turn or on the river, it’s a very bad bluff. Brian Roberts once told me “there is no such thing as a bad bluff in a tournament”. This one is, but since it’s a solid theory bluff. Okay bluff, wrong customer. 49/100
I don’t know the action, so I won’t grade it, but looks like a bad preflop play from A2 and an okay bluff. A crazy call from JJ on the river, but if it’s a three bet pot, a normal call on the flop and on the turn. It’s live poker and I’ll defer to Matt O’Donnell having a good read.
Also because Darvin’s hand is better played than Kristen’s
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop/2025-wsop/event-81-10000-wsop-main-event/chips.767961.htm
(no timestamp for video since still ongoing)
There are bigger punts, but with this being a top player like Mizrachi and it being on the final 3 tables of the Main Event, I think this deserves a mention.
He shoves 19bb from UTG-7, which is completely unnecessary off that stack depth. Raise/folding this should be totally fine. Even if you think the table is overfolding to the shove, he has to get through 6 players still, any 1 of which could hold a hand that dominates yours (as happened).
When you write "This hand seems pretty inconsequential, but the BB’s flop strategy is raise or fold and 76 is pure fold." Why would you raise/fold this spot? And why do you fold pairs on the flop vs. small bet?