I planned on writing a longer essay this week that was based around an idea I had for a podcast, that I don’t plan on making, at least for the moment (there is also a good chance this podcast already exists). Life got in the way so that essay will need to wait for next week, but for now I’ll introduce the premise. The concept of the podcast would be each week the host and the guest bring a topic, idea or belief they thought was wrong/right, but later changed their mind about. The podcast would not be about correcting the record, but interrogating what elements of our psychology caused us to be wrong the first time around. I’m going to leave comments open for this, so if anything from your own life springs to the mind of any readers, feel free to post them below. They don’t need to be big picture things, you can say “I used to think a ketchup was a better hot dog condiment than mustard” or “I thought Darko Milicic was going to be a NBA HOFer”. Go nuts.
Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers
Premium Subscribers are given access to a Google Drive folder where they will also be able to download the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, sims that are more accurate and appropriate than equivalent sims in the big public libraries. The past week I uploaded
An PIO sim using ICM preflop ranges for POTD #322
Two rocket solver sims one starting on the flop, one on the turn for POTD #323
Two postflop PIO ICM sims one that strategy locks me for POTD #324
Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers
Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included in the main post. Today, I’ll share #onemorething from POTD #322 where I write about another way I felt I misplayed the hand vs Phil Ivey
POTD #322 onemorething
One reason I decided to bet the flop was because I felt Ivey would not find enough no equity three barrel bluffs. I think that’s a solid reason to argue that betting the flop > check-calling the flop, but it doesn’t tell me anything about if betting the flop > check-raising the flop. When I check QQ with the plan to check-raise 100%, I am still gaining EV when he stabs total air that would fold to a 60k bet, even if those hands wouldn’t put me all-in by the river as often as the solver would.
If he doesn’t three barrel enough here it also means that his betting range on the flop is a little too linear and he bets too much middle of range stuff that would call or at least consider calling a check-raise. There are many times when I’m playing a poker hand where I correctly identify a relevant piece of information, but don’t come to the right conclusion with it. Ivey is, it goes without saying, a very tough opponent; he’s less likely to blast off JTs for three streets vs a check than say Michael Addamo. Ivey’s decreased bluffing frequency is a point in favour of betting first and I noticed that in game. I did not make the case that my read on Ivey makes check-raising better than betting. I suspect, one reason I did this is because I felt check-raising might have made it more likely I’d bubble the tournament. However as we learned today betting the flop also made it rather likely, I’d bust if I ran into a better hand. Having a great read on your opponent is not worth that much if you can’t find the right play to exploit that read.
Media
The main media I have been consuming this week has been my own dreams as my newborn has started sleeping through the night. Let’s hope I can give the same report tomorrow.
As always, I can be reached on:
I used to believe Ayn Rand was a genius who had more or less solved philosophy, economics, etc.