Week In Review #49 March 8th to March 14th
A POTD Reader Survey
We are closing in on the one year anniversary of POTD, and I am asking for feedback from readers. I’ve made a short 11-question quiz, and the responses will help guide what POTD will look like in year 2. It’s also around that time when the first batch of annual subscriptions are reaching their end, and at the end of the survey, there is a discount code that will work up until April 1st. You can complete the survey here. All feedback is appreciated.
Normally I’d put a subscribe button here, but if you aren’t a subscriber and would like to subscribe, use the discount code at the end of the survey.
Housekeeping
As you can read here, there will be some changes coming to POTD. We are shifting from five punts, a Week in Review, and a Sunday special to three punts, a Week in Review, and a Sunday special. The change will come into effect in a couple weeks.
If you’d like to sign up for Octopi, Run It Once, or GTO Lab, you can get a discount using the following codes.
Run it Once use code: POTD for 10% off
Octopi Poker use code: PUNT for 50% off 1st month for monthly subs and 2 free months for annual subs
GTOLab use code: POTD for $25 off any product. It can be used multiple times
Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers
You may have noticed some changes on the POTD home page. Premium subscribers will now get access to their own posts that contain all the premium content in one place. Premium subscribers can now get #onemorething and a daily video sent to their inbox every day. They will also be able to download the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, sims that are more accurate and appropriate than equivalent sims in the big public libraries. This week I uploaded:
A Rocket Solver flop sim and two PIO turn sims for POTD #246
A PIO sim for the blind vs blind hand in POTD #247
A PIO sim with different bet sizing lines for than public libraries for POTD #248
A PIO sim for POTD #249
Several node locked HRC sims and PIO postflop sims for POTD #250
Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers
Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included on Substack. Today, I’ll share #onemorething from POTD #248, where I compare the PIO sim I ran to the GTO Wizard one.
POTD #248 onemorething
In the PIO sim I uploaded I check the flop 24%, bet 1/10th pot 27%, bet quarter pot 34% and bet half pot 14%. In the GTO Wizard output the flop is check 5%, bets 10% 28%, quarter pot 54% and half pot 12%. I was trying to figure out why the GTO Wizard output checks less often and was a little stumped. My sim has an r20 flop raise size for IP, while the GTOWizard sim only has r33. I figured that more betting volume went into quarter pot on GTOW because IP was forced to play shove or fold, where as in my sim, IP could minraise-fold, but that turned out to not be true. The IP minraise is barely used after facing b25.
After I b10 on the flop I have enough wiggle room to occasionally three-bet fold on the flop after facing r20, but I can’t imagine that’s a reason for me to check range more often on the flop. If anything it would be a reason to bet more. Then I finally found the answer (as best I can tell) when I check the flop and IP bets quarter pot, I can r20 and I do it often, a whopping 28% of the time. My most common bluffs are hands like AK-AJ without a heart and overall I check-minraise fold to a shove 31% of the time. In the GTO Wizard sim I only raise over a quarter pot bet 11% of the time and fold to a jam 22% of the time.
So I guess what happened is I am more willing to check in the PIO sim where I have a few more check-raise options available to me. Is implementing the check min-raise here a particularly valuable play that adds a lot of EV to my range? Not really. However it’s worth noting that many pure or almost pure plays are just a function of having a limited gametree.
Media
POTD Editor Nath recommended I watch The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. If you like Tracy Morgan and the shows of Robert Carlock (30 Rock, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Girls5Eva) you will like this show. It’s a show that’s chock full of jokes that are so good, you will find yourself thinking “that’s the best joke I’ve ever heard” and by the end of the episode you will have forgotten that joke because there were 8 better ones. I’ve only seen the first two episodes, but I can’t wait to catch up to the next two episodes over the weekend.
I was also a guest on The Lock-In with David Lappin and Dara O’Kearney, where we discussed a variety of poker news. The conversation is embedded below.
David also wrote a very nice reflection on Punt of the Day, which you can read here.
Have a nice weekend, do not forget to fill out the survey here, and as always, I can be reached on