Sunday Special #9 Matt Matros's Main Event Hand

I get into Matt's poker brain

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

Hello, POTD! My name is Matt Matros and I’ve been a professional poker player/poker writer/poker coach since the early aughts. I, too, use my own hands as springboards for analysis and self-criticism, but as I am much lazier than Sam I stick to writing them up in short books. The latest is called Twenty-five NLHE Tournament Hands from 2025, but you can find similar titles from the two prior years, and actually last year I threw in a bonus e-book called Twenty-five Hands from the 2025 WSOP Main Event.

My POTD submission is an “outtake” from that last collection (which you can find at Amazon along with my other books The Poker Brain and The Game Plan). While I’ve been around this game since long before the solver era—even before the Moneymaker era!—I’ve tried my best to keep current with all the ideas and insights we’re constantly getting from studying poker with our new toys.

One area where I’m not as informed as I’d like to be is multiway pots. I’ve picked up a few concepts on how to play these spots (many from reading POTD on the regular), but owing to the aforementioned laziness I don’t like to spend time setting up complicated simulations that may or may not yield any interesting results. I’d much rather write up the hand and have Sam tell me what I did wrong!

I’m very hard on myself when analyzing my own hands, but POTD has shown me there’s a whole other level I could go to. I’m excited to see what that feels like. If you don’t like punishment, pick a different game.

2025 WSOP Main Event (400/800/800) Day Two, 60k effective stacks.

The main villain in the hand is Jameson Painter, someone I battled with a lot at Limit Hold ’Em tournaments back in the day when Limit was (I think) both of our best games. I think he’s been semi-retired from serious play for a few years, though, as he’s focused on a new business and other endeavors.

I open for 1,700 in the LJ with 5♣️5♠️. A tight-solid player calls on the button, and Jameson calls in the small blind.

Flop (6,700) A♠️3♠️3♣️: Jameson checks, I bet 1,800, the button folds, Jameson calls.

Turn (10,300) A♥️: Jameson checks, I bet 2,500, Jameson calls.

River (15,300) 8♠️: Jameson checks, I check.

What I Was Thinking

I am in early enough position that the smallest pairs probably mix some preflop folds, but 55 is likely close to a pure open¹, and there hasn’t been a ton of three-betting at this table so I definitely want to open. On the flop, I don’t think I have a pure range check since neither opponent is likely to have a three and I’m looking to get three streets with my AK and AQ, which I’m much more likely to have than either opponent.² I need to pick some bluffs, then, and one of the smallest pairs in my range seems like a good candidate. I can fold out better pocket pairs, and most of my opponents’ unpaired hands have easy folds on this flop, which is great by me.³ When Jameson calls his most likely hands are an ace or a flush draw.⁴ The ace on the turn both makes an ace less likely for him, and means that he should have to fold a flush draw immediately. I want to continue with a huge percentage of my range here, but I don’t want to go for a big size.⁵ I’m trying to extract a tiny bit of value from the rare three when I have aces full, and I don’t think I need a bigger size with my bluffs since my opponent’s flush draws likely have to fold to any bet.⁶ A quarter pot seems right.⁷ When Jameson calls again, my only thought is that he surely has a full house, and it’s almost always aces full, so I’m not going to bother trying to bluff.⁸

What I Got Wrong

I don’t really know what I got wrong—that’s why I brought the hand to Sam! But I think there’s a reasonable argument for taking a different action on every postflop street. I think I have a high frequency check with range on the flop, so it has to be reasonable to check my hand with some frequency.⁹ On the turn, I’m surely checking back aces full a bunch, so I can’t get too bluff happy there either, and again I am probably supposed to check my hand with some frequency.¹⁰ By the river I had decided in-game to have zero bluffs with range based on my assessment of the opponent’s range, but surely that’s not the GTO play! I don’t have a good argument for bluffing with this specific combo, but I think it makes sense that I want to block the small suited aces that seem the most likely calling hands for my opponent. My hand only blocks Ac5c. I think I’d rather bluff with 5d5c blocking Ac5c AND Ad5d¹¹—but now we’re really getting in the weeds so I’ll slowly back away.

If you made it this far, you get the result! I lost at showdown to AcQc.¹²

If you made it to the end of the post and are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players.

1. It looks like 33 mixes and 44 is a pure open.

2. Thinking about who has a strong hand advantage is a useful way to think of a hand, but fixating on it can be troublesome. Generally, this is a spot where all three players will have top pair with some frequency and they’ll occasionally want to bet them all for various reasons. You have AK and AQ more than your opponents, but all of your ranges are rather wide.

3. 55 is a great hand because it doesn’t have much protection vs over cards and has a backdoor wheel draw, but I don’t think you’ll be getting much 66+ to fold to a quarter pot bet.

4. He’s actually about as likely to have a pocket pair as he is to have Ax. He never folds a PP on the flop and his SB flatting range is pretty specific and is overweighted in pocket pairs.

5. If his most likely hand to call the flop is an ace or a flush draw and the turn is an ace, he should have a full house a lot. Almost 30% of his range is a full house, which means he’s supposed to lead a lot. If he’s not leading you should check back with most of your range.

6. He does not need to fold every flush draw, in solver land you should have some no equity turn bluffs like Tc8c with a flopped backdoor that Ks9s is doing quite well vs and you only bet quarter pot.

7. In spots like this when both players have a very strong hand a lot, it’s rare to bet a big size. Quarter pot looks like a good size.

8. I thought it might be close on the 8s because his flush draws that peel the turn are now beating you and are hands we could target with a bluff, but the solver still has some showdown with 55 vs hands like KQ or 44. The small bets and loose turn peels in this hand make it resemble, fittingly, a limit hold em hand.

9. A thing that surprised me when doing a deeper dive, this is a rare paired board where you can bet big multiway. A c-bet size of say 4.5k with AK/AQ for value and flush draws, offsuit hands with a spade, unpaired hands with a backdoor flush draw and 55 or 44 with a spade can get the button and SB to fold hands like 66—JJ

10. Above I mentioned that if my opponent is supposed to lead the turn often and he doesn’t lead. I’d check back any marginal hands, including this one. It turns out Jameson is not supposed to lead the turn regularly, but if you think his range will have too many full houses in it, I’d start by checking the turn.

11. When you are worried about bluffing into a very strong hand every little bit of blocker potential helps. Given that you’re rarely supposed to be bluffing here, I think giving up when you don’t block suited aces is a good start.

12. AQs is a pure squeeze preflop, but people often miss pure preflop squeezes in the WSOPME because they don’t want to play big pots. Matt’s river size is supposed be half pot because he’s worried that Jameson might have aces full and his most common river bluffs are hands that block AJs and ATs, hands which Jameson rarely squeezes preflop. Matt’s highest EV river bluffs are any hand that pairs an 8 on the river because it blocks Jameson’s occasional 88. 44 bluffs the river, but 55 does not. 55 doesn’t need to get 44 to fold, but 44 needs to get 55 to fold. These are the small margins that matter in solver poker, but rarely matter vs specific human opponents.