Sunday Special #8: The WSOP Main Event Bustout hand of "Robert Cooper"

A New Sunday Special about the proverbial "worst day of the year"

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

Hello, my moniker is Robert Cooper. Growing up I loved playing strategy games, whether it be chess, bridge, backgammon, Mahjong, Settlers of Catan, Civilization 3, or numerous other games. My best subject in school was math, and I was always particularly good at quick math, which naturally led me to poker.

For work I head an investment platform, where I have an extremely risk-averse investment style. Over time, poker has become a great recreational activity where I can both get the enjoyment of trying to solve complex problems, as well as the degenerative enjoyment of flipping for large sums of money (although never large enough it would impact my lifestyle—please gamble responsibly). This newsletter has been largely responsible for my renewed interest, as it gives me a brainteaser to analyze every day during my commute.

I mainly play cash-games because tournaments are quite difficult to schedule around my work. I have played 4 tournaments in my life, 3 of which are the WSOP Main Event, and one of which was a WSOP Razz event where I registered without knowing the rules (shockingly, this was my best showing of the 4). I have never gone deep in the Main yet, so largely these hands have play similar to a cash-game. I figured I would write a 3-part series on each of my bustout/stack crippling hands, and am trying to schedule playing the Main Event this year for the fourth time in order to make more content for when I royally punt off.

2019 WSOP Main Event – Day 1

200/400/400 about 5 hours into day 1 of the WSOP Main Event.

UTG opens to 1k, I call UTG+1 (90k) with 7♠️7♦️, the HJ (82k) makes it 5k, it folds to me and I call.

Flop (12k) K♠️7♥️3♦️: I check and he checks back.

Turn (12k) J♦️: I bet 12k he raises to 25k I call.

River (62k) 2♠️: I check he jams 52k into 62k, I call and lose to J♠️J♣️.

What I thought during the hand

Preflop: I don’t think there is too much to talk about, we’re deep and I have a medium pocket pair, so I view call/call as pretty trivial.¹ While in theory our opponent has a balanced range, from the few hours playing with him I would weight him very heavily towards a premium, as people were not 3-betting light at my table at all.²

Flop: All I’m thinking about at this point is Vegas and the fucking Mirage. Jackpot. What’s there to talk about, check it over and onto the turn, right?

Wrong. While I don’t need to pay GTO Wizard $100 a month to know that I am supposed to check my range here, I gave real thought to making a massive exploit of donking the flop. People are afraid of getting stacks in early at the main event without the nuts, so if he has AA/AK it is very possible he won’t triple it off. If he has JJ-QQ he will probably check back. KK I’m screwed either way. If he has an airball he might check back, but if I donk the flop he might think I’m full of shit, and float the flop to take it away on a later street. I can donk 30% on the flop and then pot the turn and river to get it in, which probably gets 1 street from QQ and will stack AA.³

However, I decide that maybe I shouldn’t be making massive exploits 5 hours into the main, and check it over with the intention of check-raising.⁴ I’m quite confident I’m never supposed to raise the flop even vs. a super small bet given my range disadvantage,⁵ but figure the easiest way to get stacks in by the river is to raise (although I would never bluff like this). Alas, it goes check-check.

Turn: At the time I was quite perplexed by his check-back, as most people had been c-betting very frequently. I realize now I probably can’t get stacks in⁶, but I want to get a ton of money in with a set at this point. If he has QQ he probably won’t put much money in anyway, but if he decided to check back AA/AK/KQ type of hand, knowing he has this board locked up so he’s fine letting me see a turn, then I want to start piling money in. I decide to pot the turn planning to pot virtually all rivers.⁷

Oy, the dreaded min raise (well technically not exactly a min-raise, but who is going to break a 25k chip just to make it exactly min). I was not expecting that. My heart is already pounding. Is this how I am going to lose my entire stack in my first main? I see my (tournament) life flashing before my eyes.

Now I take a deep breath and think. I first consider, what could he be doing this with? Obviously the most likely hand is a set, but would he really check back KK to raise an innocuous turn? Did he 3-bet me with KJ preflop? He doesn’t seem like the type, but maybe. Did he somehow turn a flush draw? Is he doing a weird spazz, where he checks back AA/AK for pot control, raises turn for protection on a draw heavy turn card, planning to check back the river?

Now that I am starting to calm down a little, I start thinking, is he going to jam 100% of the time on a blank river? Because if he is, I need to make up my mind now. If he is not, then I can call turn and then decide river later.⁸ I think it is definitely possible he can find a weird AK type of raise for protection planning to check back river (he is a fish after all), so I decided to call one and evaluate river.⁹

River: This is one of the longest tanks of my life. Do I think this opponent is ever going to be bluffing here? Not really. Do I think it’s possible he is taking a very weird line with AA? Unlikely, but possible. Do I think he has worse than AA for value? Never. Do I think he has KJ preflop? Not really, but possible. Does he have QT though? I highly doubt it. And am I going to get shown a set here 100% of the time? Likely.¹⁰ After all this tanking, I decide it’s my first main event, I’m not here to fold sets, so I call. So, not shocking when he flips over the JJ, although in real-time I was expecting to see KK.¹¹

What I learned from studying

Studying is a funny concept to me because normally my idea of studying poker is texting my one professional poker playing friend a hand history and asking him how I messed up. But in this case, studying means I bought a solver subscription for the first time ever (so I hope I am using it properly, although I am sure there will be some footnotes if I am not).

Preflop: I am supposed to VPIP a range of any pocket pair, suited ace, suited broadway, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ¹² offsuit, and most of the suited broadway connectors. I would probably be playing a similar range, although missing hands such as K9s/T8s¹³ that the solver has. 77 is supposed to 3-bet 15% of the time, so not much of a miss by pure calling it.¹⁴ Against the 3-bet I am only supposed to fold my range 15% of the time, with my folds coming from AJo/KQo, A2s/A6s/K9s—so far, so good.¹⁵ Villain is supposed to have 66 combos preflop, of which over half of them are not AK/JJ+. Is this likely? Candidly, no.¹⁶

Flop: The solver range bets 100% of the time for 25% pot for villain. This small range bet on a dry-disconnected flop is something I am more familiar with in 2026 than I would have been in 2019. Against this bet, I am supposed to fold 52% of the time¹⁷, but, surprisingly, I am also supposed to raise 14% of the time, including about 60% of the time I have 77. I am playing much tighter than the solver would vs. a bet, as I am not finding the pure call with AQs and a bdfd, nor would I have found the pure raise with A5s and a bdfd.

If I change villain’s c-bet size to half pot, he is now supposed to only bet 93% of the time, with his two likely check-back combos being TT-QQ, since they can’t get much value and don’t need much protection.¹⁸

Turn: This solution once again surprised me. The solver is checking for me 100% of the time on the turn. I was not expecting this as when the flop goes check/check I assume I should have some sort of betting range on the turn. However, the solver pure checks on a Q, J, or T turn, which obviously makes sense in hindsight given that a huge portion of his checking range turns a set on those turn cards.¹⁹

When he min raises, my continue range is obvious: Made hands (KJ+), and then a bunch of high-equity draws like pair+fd, straight draw + fd, nut fd, and QT.²⁰

One thing I didn’t realize in real-time is that, during the hand, I kept visualizing his most likely holding as KK, but for some reason I wasn’t thinking enough about JJ. In my experience in cash-games, often when someone takes an incongruous line I don’t expect, such as checking back the flop to raise turn, it means that the turn card interacted with their hand in some way. So, while hindsight is 20/20, I think his most likely value holding is JJ.

River: The solver likes donking with my range 43% of the time with quarter pot in order to try to get value from a hand like K9s that will check back river.²¹ On the one hand I don’t think he will have K9s as often as the solver would, on the other hand I think donking river would allow us to get max value vs. AA/AK and not get stacked by JJ/KK. Donking was very hard to find in the moment as I was already afraid of getting stacked the second he raised the turn, but in hindsight it’s a creative way to actually avoid getting stacked.²²

Once I check, villain goes all-in with JJ and KK and mixes with KJ, with his main bluffs coming from AQ. Vs. the all-in I call 10% of the time with 77, but call 85% of the time with 33 and 100% of the time with KJ (blockers I guess), and I don’t really think there is any difference between 33 and 77 here.²³

The one thing to add is ICM and future game. While this was my first tournament, I understood the vague notion that in a break-even spot it is better to fold than to call in a tournament (while in a cash-game it is +EV to call a break-even spot to give action). While we are only a few hours into the main event and days away from the money bubble, I think the fact this is in a tournament and not a deep-stack cash game should lead me to find the fold.²⁴

It is hard for me to say how good a solver analysis is when I don’t think villain is playing close to GTO preflop, he misses a pure range bet on the flop, and I miss a pure range check on the turn. But I am also a solver newb, so I will wait for the footnotes to tell me what grade I earned. All in all, there are worse things in life than never folding a set post flop, but of my three bustout hands, this is the one I regret most, because I think I could have found the fold.

If you made it to the end of the post and are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players.

1. I thought this might be a spot where we fold preflop sometimes facing an open and to a three bet, but looks like this deep we do call twice most of the time

2. One thing to note here is that “light” three bets might just be hands like suited broadways of AQo. So even if it feels like they’re rarely three betting light, they might be three betting enough.

3. If your plan is to donk the flop to induce floats, but also keep barrelling blank turns. Your logic is a little consistent. I’d only donk as an exploit, if I thought I’d induce bluff raises.

4. While many people play scared in the main, my default is to assume that people love c-betting. So I would check

5. I would not be so sure about this. There’s usually raising in spots like this, especially vs a small bet, even if you have a range disadvantage.

6. You could by overbetting the turn, the river or both, but if you feel your opponent won’t hero call you enough on the river. Setting up to get 75% of his chips is often a good adjustment.

7. A shove would only be 180% pot and it’s not like your value betting KQ to this size so shoving would be reasonable.

8. I think with a flush draw on the turn he easily might check back a set or bet small on some heart, T,Q,A rivers.

9. I also agree with this. I think many players tend to think there are more spots where you need to make up your mind on an earlier street because you’ll “always” face river aggression than there actually are. You’re getting very good pot odds, on the turn, it’s rare for someone to be shoving 100% of rivers after raising the turn. You’re allowed be concerned he has a higher set and still peel the turn.

10. I’m being a pedant here, but it ties into the thought process of the hand. It’s “likely” that you will see a set “100% of the time”. If you see it 100% of the time, it’s not likely, it’s a guarantee. By saying likely, you are conceding there is always a chance you see something odd.

11. I think what this boils down to is a Bayesian thing where his most likely individual hand is probably KK or JJ, but you only need to be good on the river 32% of the time. He has at most 6 combos of better hands and if he has three combos of worse hands you need to call. Those three hands come from dozens of other hands he might play like this, so if the remaining 60 combos of hands do something crazy 5% of the time, you might just need to call.

12. Robert told me he used GTO Wizard 150bb ante sims and these outputs look a little loose to me. I’d rather use the GTOLab 200bbs deep ranges. Specifically AJo/KQo seem too loose for me.

13. Also a little too loose imo and I prefer the GTO Lab ranges.

14. EP vs EP I like three betting a lot in main events because if you call, several people will behind you and you’ll need to play tricky multiway pots. Mid to low pocket pairs are often an exception because I don’t mind going multiway with hands that often flop nothing and often flop a great hand to play multiway poker with.

15. I’m still seeing slightly tighter solutions, but the general idea is sound. When you flat an UTG raise you tend to have a very tight range and many of those hands are good enough to call a three bet with, especially 200 deep where you wouldn’t even want to backraise a hand like QQ.

16. Probably not, but this might just increase the EV of set mining with small pairs.

17. Which explains why it’s a good spot to c-bet 100% for IP. He risks quarter pot and wins the pot half the time, even more if you fold AQ with a backdoor. That’s a very good wager for him.

18. This is good solver usage. If someone misses a pure bet, I am a fan of increasing their biggest bet size until the solver forces some checks. It’s better than creating a custom human checking range that will reflect many of your own biases about the hand.

19. While I applauded your solver use above, you will often get odd outputs in very narrow range spots. These outputs rely on your opponent’s range looking exactly like the solver range, which is often a foolish assumption in practice.

20. I wouldn’t read too much into his response if you’re supposed to pure check the turn. His turn raise node is barely trained.

21. I’d give the same disclaimer here, the turn raise is a low frequency play after facing a low frequency flop check and a turn bet that is never supposed to happen. The river lead is an unbaked play that would probably not exist on a similar board where betting the turn is a common play for you.

22. However, I do agree with this and think that compared to a flop lead, which I think is too clever by half, the river lead might be just the right amount of clever and might save you some money. Unless he views the river lead as being weak and tries to bluff you.

23. I’d guess the solver bluffs with 7x some of the time.

24. Sometimes it takes me deep into my analysis to nail down the key point to the hand and the key point here is it’s very unlikely that this river spot vs this opponent in the moment is neutral EV or close to it. It’s a squeezed pot with a turn raise 200+bbs deep, he either has worse for value or is bluffing too often or he has a set too often. This feels like a river call that vs most humans will either be worth -50bbs or +50bbs and your job is to determine what sort of player you’re up against. Which means, I also don’t think future game stuff matters too much. You either take the +50bb call or the +50bb fold. You did not give me many details about your opponent beyond him playing tight preflop, but overall I think you provided enough information that where you could have found the hero fold if you wanted to, but without being at the table. It’s hard for me be more confident than that.