My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you are reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a third time submitter Loris aka The Lion King read his prior submissions here and here
Today’s submission has been lightly edited for formatting and clarity
My first poker study tool was Flopzilla, an equity calculation and combo counting tool, similar to Equilab. It helped me getting better at, who guessed it, combo counting and also visualizing how the different hand classes, offsuit and suited combos, pairs and flush(draws), are weighted in postflop ranges.
Todays hand will point out how correctly evaluating the strength of your own holding (a.k.a equity) compared to your opponents range throughout the streets will help you make the right decision – or at least not punt in the way I did 😉.
Mid Stakes Online-Poker (SB/BB/A). 7 Handed.
44$ Medium-Field CoinPoker on a Sunday.
I guess registration still open, but a considerable amount of players has already busted.
Hero opens from SB and 68.61bb to 3.5bb w A♦️9♠️, folds to the BB, looked like a regular, who called and now has 37bb back.
Flop (7.75bb) A♥️T♠️8♠️: Hero c-bets 2bb, BB calls.
Turn (11.75bb) 3♠️: Hero bets 9bb, BB calls.
River (34.26bb) K♣️: Hero shoves for 26bb, BB snaps with Q♠️5♠️ and wins while already tagging me as a fish (most likely).
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What I Was Thinking:
Preflop
Around 40bb SB vs BB (effective) without ICM considerations I play limp, raise 3.5x and fold.
I do trap with 99, JJ, AQo to also strengthen my limping range (playing l/3-bet), but the rest of my strong hands, especially strong offsuit broadways and ace high’s, clearly belong in my 3.5x raising range. They need protection and wanna charge weaker holdings.1
Flop
Very interesting flop. We should have a considerable TP, set and range advantage, however we have 3 streets OOP to play while being relatively deep stacked.2 The board is very dynamic, thus having the best hands in our range NOW isn’t that valuable, as hand strength is likely to change.3
I bet that solver would mix between bet small and check, while checking very frequently4, but I don’t know how to build that range probably, so I think in practice I c-bet range small with the plan to have a high turn check percentage.5
A minor detail that makes the flop a little more advantageous for our range is that the Ace isn’t suited. Otherwise we would lack a lot of flushes in comparison to the BB, if turn or river completes said flush.6
I don’t think my opponents will have an educated flop raising range, so I will get away with my range bet. I also don’t expect them to pressure me with sick float, then db AI’s if I choose to x/c turn.7
I wonder, from a theoretical perspective, if my holding fits better in a flop checking range, as we have the key blocker 9♠️for the hands we want to charge – draws.8
Turn
Talking about completing flushes. Here my ranging already falls apart, as I expected A9 with spade blocker – probably the best TP against his BB flatting range behind AJ – still be worth 3 streets of value.
I know from studying that flushes only make a small portion of my range and I thought together with a loose BB calling range that ranges are still wide enough to go for 3 streets.9
Now coming back to Flopzilla. The first interesting finding I had is that BB will probably overfold to my double barrel. I think it’s the right exploit (even tho I don’t think it’s intentional, I just think he won’t reach minimum defense frequency) as I don’t expect myself to have many bluffs here OOP and be slightly weighted towards value. My bluffs will also always have a considerable amount of equity.10
I expect my opponent to call TP’s+, pair+ draws and any sort of combo draw or at least a straight draw. Tx and worse pairs without a flush draw, as well as Kh’s will probably fold to my big size for the most part.11 That’s around 49% of hands in my range!
So I was kinda right that ranges are wide, yes, but with firing a triple barrel my hand will just be to weak to still a value bet on the river – even if turn and river are complete bricks!12
After turn brought in the flush I do at least need an Ace-high 2p to consider triple barreling. From a theoretical standpoint I also expect that I played this hand completely wrong. I have a loose SB range with still every crap hand I decided to raise SB T2s and decided to range bet.13
BB has a condensed range by calling my SB preflop raise that even got tighter after calling my c-bet. He is uncapped on the flush turn and has every flush imaginable in his range.14 The most part of my range just wants to get to showdown for cheap, my checking range needs much protection.15 I think the biggest size we do play on this turn is 1/3, but checking is certainly the right play with our holding.16 By the way, do even play check raises in this line?17
River
On the river my poker senses telegraphed me that something felt off.
I knew QJ came full range to this river and my hand felt thin.18 I stopped and tanked for some seconds. Ultimately I thought I still had enough value and jammed.
Looking back I certainly don’t have enough equity to value jam + I do even have the worst blocker to x/c, as it blocks every straight and or flush draw imaginable. A hand like A2 no spade would be a much better call in theory.19
What could I’ve done differently? I could block, but my hand would look very face up and I do believe that I wouldn’t be able to construct that range properly.20 I believe I would only THINK about blocking when I had what – an Ace that prays for showdown. Arriving at the river as played, I should just x/f versus a jamming range.21
Types of Errors
Proper equity & hand strength analysis
Range strategy & size for turn and river
Final Thoughts
I should block/small size or check turn, the completing flush shrinks our value part to flushes we rarely have in our range, especially compared to the BB’s range.22
I strongly believe that the turn is crux of the hand. On the river it’s easy to construct a very polarized AI or check range or a small/ check range.23
Our big turn size just makes it way to easy for IP to play against us and we either end in an overplay (as played 😉) on the river or many ugly hero calling spots we could have avoided easily.24
Sure enough I would grade this hand very harsh from a strategy perspective, but emotionally it didn’t hit me all to much, although 44$ is the absolute max of Buy-In’s I enter at the moment.25
Finally, as this hand had many decision points, I am already curious how Sam and the community would have played the hand!26
If you are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have amateur poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players.
Your thinking here is probably a little too black and white. You articulated good reasons for raising hands like A9o here, but almost every strong offsuit hand mixes some limping here. Strong offsuit hands are excellent limpjamming candidates. In fact overall, you prefer limping offsuit hands because playing them OOP in bigger pots is tricky. That being said A9o is probably too weak to limp jam, which makes it an especially appealing raise first in candidate.
One 8bbs get in the pot preflop, we are no longer all that deep stacked. We only have 4x pot to play.
It’s still valuable. The way to get value out of this hand class is to bet big and charge draws. Yoy have 4x pot to play getting in a pot-sized-bet way ahead is very good. Which isn’t necessarily true if you were like 15x deep.
When you are OOP, have shown preflop aggression and have a large strong top pair advantage, you frequently bet a big size with your strongest top pair hands. Your checking range is usually made up of middle of range hands like KK, Tx,8x, weak top pair, some total air and some traps like AA.
The reason to check often after c-betting and getting called too much is because your c-betting range is too weak or his continuing range is too strong. I don’t think either of those things are true. If you are so concerned that your c-betting range is too weak that you want to check most turns, I’d start by c-betting less often.
Also 1/3 of your offsuit top pair hands will have a nut flush draw.
Even more reason to bet big right now. Betting small with a hand like KK or Tx because you think your opponent will play straight up makes sense, but not with a hand as strong as A9.
Overall, you are greatly underestimating your hand strength here. Your opponent should almost always three bet AJ+ preflop and could three bet AT or 88. You are beat very rarely here and should be thinking about how to get as much money in the pot as possible vs worse hands.
Flushes makes up a smallish amount of your range, but also a small amount of his range. Whether or not you can go for three streets is a close question, but it’s such a dynamic board you can wait until the river to determine how much money you want to put in the pot. One thing you can start doing on the turn is pushing linear equity vs hands like 8s7x or QsJx. To do that, you don’t need to bet such a large size, especially if you’re worried about running into a flush.
If you think he’ll overfold, you should bet smaller.
I am not really sure this constitutes over folding. As described it sounds like he just has a good turn continuing range.
This may be true, but it’s still possible to get value on the turn and then check-call or check-fold the river if you really think your opponent has it. You also definitely have a strong enough hand to get three streets from if the turn and river are bricks.
Well to be fair in the introduction you talked about raising a bunch of your good hands as well. Sometimes “ace high flop = good for PFR” is overly simplistic, but not here. It’s a good flop for you. Your SB RFI range should not be so loose that you have a big range disadvantage on this board. The top of your range is much stronger than the top of your opponent’s, you need a lot of total air to overbluff here. I don’t like the quarter pot range c-bet strategy here, but I think the way you’re thinking about your own range is a little off.
Your range has also been condensed, you raised and bet twice. I’d be surprised to see you have a hand like Kc6d here.
Top pair might not be a hand you want to automatically stack off here, but you are underestimating how strong it is. A2 no spade has around 68% equity vs the GTO Wizard’s BB range.
In the GTOw sim 50 and 75 are regularly used on the turn and even A4 with the 4s mixes betting.
I am not convinced that your hand is a pure check, but betting smaller could be best. I think you should play some checkraises on the turn, but it should be rare and it depends on how big your opponent bets.
You’re also underestimating how much random two pair he might river here. Hands like KT/K8 should be a pretty big part of his range, even if it’s counter balanced a little by the fact he can also bluff catch KJ/KQ with a spade.
You still should have a totally fine hand to check-call the river with. Ideally you’d want any top pair combo with the As since that blocks value bets and doesn’t interact with bluffs. Sure he can bluff with hands like Qx9s,Jx9s,9s7x, but he also has nine high flushes he can value bet. You might be talking about 9 value bets with the 9s vs nine bluffs with them, depending on how often he bluffs a hand like 9s8x or Tx9s.
Your hand would look faceup, but I am not sure how many people in a $44 tourney are bluffraising the river here vs a faceup play. If you do think it makes your hand look faceup, then I’d suggest blocking the river with a hand like AT or AA.
Check-folding the river is a fine play, but it should be very close. If you think your opponent is bluffing too often with Tx or 8x with a spade, you have a pretty easy check-call.
I’m going to keep repeating this, you can value bet much wider than a flush. You can bet big on the turn and shove a Kc river with A3. You may have overplayed your hand, but that’s because there are a whole host of hands between A3 and A9. You are too worried about running into a flush here.
We’ve written so much about the turn and the river, that I need to go back to the flop. For chips A9 is a pure big bet on the flop. You never bet small with A9, I don’t think this is the key error in the hand, but in a hand where you write about how you overplayed a hand you have skipped over underplaying your hand when it was the best.
I’ve been very critical in the footnotes today, so I will say, I agree with this.
How emotional one feels about a poker hand is often completely untied with the stakes or the specifics of the hand and has more to do with how you’re feeling on a given day.
I’d have big bet on the flop, bet smaller on the turn and probably reluctantly check-called on the river. Today’s hand is one where you put close to the right amount of money in the pot with your hand. I just disagree with the way you did it. You bet too small when your hand was good and too big when it was bad. I don’t always grade Sunday Special’s, but this one probably gets a C from me.