Sunday Special #24 Jonathan Wang Bluffs Eric Afriat

Published on Monday my apologies

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you are reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter

Before I get to the thoughts of todays’ punter: Jonathan Wang. I need to apologize for posting this Sunday Special on Monday. It was a holiday weekend in Canada, I begun my Punt of the 2026 WSOPME, and I had a sick child. I wanted to get this Sunday Special out ASAP, so this week the normal punts will be posted Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. For today’s Sunday Special I am annotating a blog Jonathan wrote on his Substack. I have lightly edited his blog for formatting and clarity and deleted all the pictures. Since I do not post pictures of solver outputs on POTD because I decided that would be my policy and I am stubbornly sticking to it. On to Jonathan’s hand.

Hello! I’m Jonathan Wang and after spending 10 years working in tech I’ve chosen to join the ranks of poker tournament grinders for the indefinite future. I’ve been documenting my journey with the occasional post over on my Substack.

My table early in day 1A ended up being the first selected to go on the livestream. I had never been on a poker livestream before and overall the experience was a fun one! We had a good table dynamic - thank god the other pros were talkative and not hoodie wearing miserable regs. The thing that struck me the most was how eerily quiet and how bright the lights were. The livestream table was in a separate room from the other tables and it took a bit of an adjustment to go from the poker room white noise of chip shuffling and background conversations to the more or less complete silence of the stream studio.

In the middle of the 2 hours that we were on stream I played this hand vs tournament regular Eric Afriat. For those interested in watching the hand play out live, it can be found in the livestream VOD timestamped link here.

300/600/600 blind level, 80+% of field remaining. Justin Zaki (47.5k/79bbs) raises to 1200 from UTG9, there is one fold and Eric Afriat (55.5k/92.5bbs) makes it 3200 with K♥️Q♥️, it folds to me (68.6k/114bbs) in the CO with Q♦️Q♣️ in the CO, I make it 8,000 it folds back to Afriat who calls.

Flop: 3♣️7♥️K♣️

Pot: 18.7k (31bb)

Afriat checks, we bet 4k (6.66bb) / 20% pot, Afriat calls

Turn: 3♣️7♥️K♣️J♣️

Pot: 26.7k (44.5bb)

Afriat checks, we check.

River: 3♣️7♥️K♣️J♣️5❤️

Pot: 26.7k (44.5bb)

Afriat block bets 5.5k (9bb) / 20% pot, we make a small 17k (28bb) / 33% raise. Afriat folds.

Let’s walk through this street by street.

But before we do Sam is back here for one second chiming in to remind everyone reading this post to become a paid or unpaid subscriber. As I wrote in the Week in Review post, POTD has never had so many total subscribers, but paid subscribers are falling. If you like the free content provided on POTD please consider becoming a paid subscriber to keep POTD running in perpetuity.

Preflop

This spot with QQ isn’t as much of a slam dunk 4bet as one might think. Yes, we have the third best starting hand in poker - however this configuration is meant to be really tight. We are cold 4-betting a player who has already re-raised vs the first to act player. This combined with the fact that there are so many other players left to act really restricts what each player can get away with in theory.

Looking at a similar spot in the sim you can see that re-raising QQ here is actually 0EV in equilibrium and JJ is meant to be a pure fold! In theory you are just facing two ranges that are very strong and you need a strong hand yourself to commit chips into a pot that you haven’t entered yet.¹

That being said, we’re playing against humans and not the computer. 4-betting QQ here becomes a lot better when people are playing too many hands from early position. For example, Zaki’s open raise here with JTo is too loose, though probably fine exploitatively if he doesn’t expect to get 3-bet enough and if he thinks the big blind is a recreational player.² This, in turn, makes our 4-bet with QQ a lot more straightforward as UTG9’s range just contains way more of these weaker hands which significantly reduces the chance that we “run into it”.³

Afriat’s call here is a blunder and makes our 4-betting with QQ even better. While K♥️Q♥️is a very pretty hand, this hand is dominated too often by my possible holdings and to make things worse he has to play out of position to me postflop with a 2+ SPR. This hand from both a theory and exploitative perspective should almost always be folding in this spot.⁴

Flop 3♣️7♥️K♣️

The flop clearly favors my cold 4-betting range which contains all of the strongest hands on this board. Afriat makes the procedural check to the preflop raiser and we make a very small continuation bet. In my opinion the theory approved small bet is always the preferred sizing because not only is it the solver’s preferred strategy, but it also ends up being a good exploitative strategy because human players don’t correctly respond to it in a way that benefits us.⁵

Afriat makes a standard call with top pair middle kicker facing this small bet as he is ahead enough of the time against our range of hands that c-bets small on this board.⁶

Turn 3♣️7♥️K♣️J♣️

The turn is an interesting one bringing in the front door flush and dropping a broadway card that interacts with both my and Afriat’s ranges.

Afriat elects to check here to the aggressor on the previous street, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the solver likes to build a leading strategy here because the preflop caller should have more suited hands and therefore flushes here than the 4-bettor.⁷

Our particular combo of Q♦️Q♣️ is improved by this turn to a 2nd nut flush draw. I think this makes for a pretty intuitive checking hand that we are looking to take to showdown.⁸ Afriat check calling our flop bet filters his range into made hands and flush draws which have now gotten there. Q♦️Q♣️ is now middling hand as we still beat a few of Afriat’s hands like TT, but are now far behind many of his other made hands. We elect to check behind and play a river.

River 3♣️7♥️K♣️J♣️5♥️

The river is a brick and here is where things get spicy. Afriat elects to block bet a very small 20% sizing. This is a very good price to call! From a pot odds perspective, I am being offered the chance to call 20% pot to win 140% pot getting 1:7 to call. I only need to have the best hand here ~15% of the time to make a profitable call.

However, In game I very quickly figured out that calling is probably not the highest EV line here. While I do beat some hands like AJs/TT⁹, exploitatively I think I lose too frequently to Kx that it is time to get creative.

After thinking about it for a bit, we find a very small 33% pot raise turning our Q♦️Q♣️ into a bluff. In game this was meant to be a maximally exploitative play versus an opponent who, in my opinion, is playing his range very face up on this board. I think these factors make raising in this spot against this particular opponent optimal:

• I had luckily stumbled upon a few hands that Afriat played in the WSOP Main Event this past summer and saw him make some tight folds to river aggression.¹⁰

• I just didn’t think Afriat was ever betting this small 20% sizing with a hand better than one pair¹¹ and I didn’t think he was thinly betting enough with hands that I beat like AJs or TT.¹²

• Not that this is super relevant since as I said before I don’t think Afriat is ever betting a flush here for 20%, but I do have Q♣️ which greatly reduces the number of flushes that Afriat could possess. Specifically I make it impossible for Afriat to have A♣️Q♣️ which is a pretty good candidate to block bet and try and “induce” a bluff from your opponent.¹³

• I don’t think he is ever re-raise bluffing me. It would be a bit of a disaster to reopen the action only to have a hand like A♣️Jx bluff me off the best hand.¹⁴

• Finally, to make the point about raising being higher EV than calling we have to think about which hands I make money from when I call and which hands I make money from when I raise. When I call, I only win the pot against worse hands. When I raise (assuming that I never get 3-bet bluffed), I now win the pot versus those same worse hands + some better hands that fold.¹⁵ This is by definition a larger set of hands that I win the pot against. This is then weighed against getting called by a better hand, but since I’ve used such a small sizing my bluff doesn’t have to work that often to be profitable.

Luckily for us, Afriat waffles for a bit and eventually folds to cede the pot to us.

Of course, I could have been wrong here. There are quite a few assumptions that go into making a play like this and we could have very easily looked like an idiot. I still go back and forth on whether or not I should have used a larger raise sizing, but Afriat is definitely a player who might read too much into the small sizing even though he is getting an insane price to call.¹⁶

This hand is a special one for me - it was very satisfying to put all the pieces together and have the conviction to pull the trigger on an interesting bluff spot versus exactly the right opponent.¹⁷

If you made it to the end of the post and are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players

1. I agree with all this. I’ll also add that since you don’t play any cold-calls, whenever you VPIP you need to put in more money than is in the pot every time you VPIP. If you’re strategy is overbet or fold, you should be tight.

2. He’s in early enough position that he also needs to be aware of how loose people are flatting. It’s hard to play JTo profitably UTG at a table where no one ever folds KJo.

3. Also it means Afriat will three bet hands that aren’t KK+ more often.

4. I’ll also add that even as one or both of you expand your ranges. KQs is still dominated quite a lot. AQ is a common cold four bet bluff for you.

5. It also overperforms vs someone who is too loose preflop.

6. He also has five outs to improve and a backdoor flush draw. 76s would also not fold this flop, but would rarely be ahead.

7. You mostly have suited hands preflop as well. The reason he would have more flushes than you is he would fold a hand like AdQd on the flop, when you would c-bet it.

8. You’re rarely getting better to fold or worse to call. I don’t know if Eric is supposed to lead the turn with range, but in the video he appears to check rather quickly (even if the graphics lag and don’t register his check until much later). If he doesn’t consider leading and you think he’s supposed to lead sometimes. That’s even more reason to check.

9. I am not sure that he’d bet AJ or TT here. I think you beat some hands he bets, but the hands you’re beating are bluffs. Maybe hands like 65s or AhQh.

10. Hands I wrote about last year here and here where I crowned his fold of a full house the Punt of the Main Event

11. I am a little skeptical of this read. Your range is capped and a lot of people hate betting big with good hands because they think their opponents will fold too often.

12. You’re supposed to mix folds with QQ preflop here. Value blocking AJs or TT wouldn’t be thin from Eric. It would just be bad. Even value betting KQs here is probably a little dicey, he’s basically trying to get called by exactly QQ and he has a Q in his hand.

13. In narrow range spots there is a big difference between “never” and “almost never”. Even if he plays AcQc like this 5% of the time, it should end up being a notable part of his river range. A potential concern with the Qc blocker is that it might be a bad blocker if Eric ever has AxQc or KxQc or is bluffing with QcQx. We are deep in the footnotes and haven’t really talked about Eric’s play style, but he is wildcard and regularly shows up with questionable hands preflop. He’s going to be looser than the solver is, especially preflop, but it’s unclear how that will effect his river range and specifically the value of bluffing with the Qc.

14. I think it’s unlikely he will, however I still like shoving myself. You are representing a very strong hand and there’s no reason to size down when you’re repping so strong.

15. But you are paying more for the opportunity to get him to fold a better hand.

16. To me I think preflop is mandatory, it’s the solver approved play and you are against two players that are looser than the solver. I like the pure flop c-bet and while I am not sure if Eric should play turn leads or not, I think your turn check is best. There are two decisions to make on the river. Should you raise and what size should you raise? I’ll start with the second one. I really think you should just shove, you’re repping a very strong value range into a range you believe to be capped there is no reason to get cute, just shove.

As for whether or not you should raise. I think this is more about playing your opponent than finding the correct equillibrium frequencies. Based on the WSOPME footage from last year, Afriat is a guy who often makes extremely big, often incorrect folds when facing river aggression. Facing that type of player things like blockers, range advantages, or what you can realistically “rep” don’t really matter that much. He will rarely have a great hand after this line, you can rep sets and flushes, he can make some big folds you should bluff him.

17. One thing you’ve nailed in your analysis here is this is more about your opponent, than your hand. I’ve seen lots of Sunday Special submissions where someone writes about having “their only bluff combo”. Well in this hand your only value combos are maybe KK/JJ and AcQc, even if you expand to include an occasional Ac5c or AcTc, you’re talking 9 value combos tops and in a spot where if you’re bluff with 3 combos your opponent should almost always call. QcQx is three combos right there. So this is about exploiting a specific opponent’s tendency in a big pot. While knowing that you don’t regularly play vs this opponent and he won’t be able to counter adjust to you overbluffing him. Nice hand and thank you for the submission.