Sunday Special #13 On Easter Sunday We Go to Church (The Borgata)

A hand from POTD subscriber Red Holtzman

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

Almost everyone who has submitted has given me a version of “I am not sure if this worthy of your analysis”. I assure you that is not the case, every poker hand presents an opportunity to learn something new. On to Red Holtzman’s hand, which I have lightly edited for style and clarity

Hi Sam,

I am what you describe in the blog as a hobbyist. I haven’t played much since Covid, just a few live East Coast tournaments a year. I have a full time job in the medical field and live in New York so am unable to play online. I have had limited success in past with a WSOP circuit ring and multiple 2nd and 3rd place finishes. The POTD has been an amazing way for me to keep in touch with the game and learn a lot.

The hand I was interested in getting your feedback on was from midway through Day 1 of a recent $600 Borgata series event. The crux of my question concerns preflop. Postflop I was coolered but I assure you I wasn’t sending this as a bad beat story.¹

Blinds 1k/1.5k/1.5k 9 handed. Average stack was around 80k. Registration is Open.

UTG+1 225K opened to 4k. He was a middle aged guy who was very aggressive but I thought was too loose preflop and had amassed his stack by running very well. He had made what I thought were several suboptimal 3 bets preflop (such as 3 betting an UTG open with JTo from button).²

Hero(LJ) 170 k(almost 120 bbs)w AhKs. I 3 bet to 11k(I probably should have gone a little larger)³

CO(150k)flats. He had cold called several raises and 3 bets already but played fit or fold post.

Folded back to UTG+1 who 3bet to 34k.

At this point, I felt that I was ahead of the 4 bettor’s range.⁴ The cold caller I felt was capped and he didn’t seem happy after the 4 bet was made and I felt there was a very good chance he was folding regardless of what I decided.⁵ I thought if I raised my preferred sizing would be all in but I thought that I would likely only get called by a range of JJ+ and AK if I put 120 bbs in preflop so I reluctantly called hoping to keep in a range that I might dominate.⁶ I didn’t think he would 4 bet with pairs below Jacks and I thought his range was JJ+ and multiple 2 broadway hands w blocker value.⁷ I did consider that my hand would be more appealing as a flat if i was suited but still decided to call in position vs 4 bettor but with small chance I would end up as the monkey in the middle. This is the decision point I really wanted feedback on.⁸

CO then did fold

Flop(83 k...SPR 1.6).
AcAsQh
Villain bets 15k. I honestly wasn’t sure what to make of this bet other than either he flopped huge or he missed and was hoping that i had a medium pair that would fear the overcards and get out of the way. I flatted.⁹

Turn(113 k...SPR 1.1)
Brick 7d.
He checks. I bet 35k.¹⁰ He snapshoves. At this point I figure best case I am chopping w AK but I felt I had to call.¹¹ Villain had AQ.¹² River blank.

If you made it to the end of the post and are interested in being the subject of a future Sunday Special, let me know. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players.

1. I believe you, but I’ll add that I am a believer in learning from big and important hands you played even in ones where you get unlucky or bad beat. It makes sense to study hands you’re naturally interested in because you’ll be more likely to remember the hand and retain the lessons you learned from analyzing them. This is one of the reasons I like analyzing some of the more dramatic hands I’ve played in POTD. They are often hands that taught me lessons.

2. You are describing a loose aggressive preflop player, but I’ll add that he also might just be positionally unaware. Maybe he doesn’t realize why you can three bet JTo from the button facing a CO raise, but not vs an UTG raise.

3. I’d go larger (13k-14k) here for a couple reasons. One it’s the solver approved size. Two if he’s three betting hands like JTo when he shouldn’t, he’s also probably calling three bets with JTo when he shouldn’t. Juice it up and make him pay.

4. If you felt this was the case, you have to go all-in. Shoving 120bbs with AKo is a common, but not mandatory play. However the cold call adds a bunch of dead money in the pot and shoving AKo for ~3x pot is a totally standard poker play, especially if you think you’re ahead of his four betting range.

5. This makes me more inclined to flat call. AKo is a very strong hand, but is not a great hand in multiway pots, especially when you are sandwiched between the four bettor and the cold-caller. The more confident you are the pot will go heads up to the flop the more often I’d call the four bet with range, especially with hands like KJs or AA. However, AKo is still a hand I’d want to shove.

6. This is a spot where winning dead money without showdown is more important than having more than 50% equity when you go all-in and are called. I think since the advent of solvers people can be a little too concerned with only shoving hands preflop that can get better ones to fold or worse ones to call. Sometimes you just shove because there is a lot of dead money out there and it beats calling. I could even get on board with trapping AKs here, but AK high no flush draw or backdoor is a tricky hand to play postflop and AKo flops that a lot of the time. Shoving and ending the hand is the highest EV play and the easiest way to play the hand.

7. I think you’re a little too confident in your ability to range a random in a $600 Borgata tourney who has already shown some questionable plays. Maybe he’ll call a shove with AQ, maybe he’ll fold QQ to shove, maybe he’ll four bet 88 without a plan. I don’t expect him to four bet pairs and fold to a shove with them, but if he does it’s a pretty big win for you. You need to account for the fact you might be wrong about the specifics of his range, but the general read you can rely on is that he’s probably too loose to 4-bet.

8. I’ll keep repeating it, but just go all-in. Even if you’re rarely trapped in the middle postflop, rarely still could be 20% of the time. You have one of the worst hands to be trapped in the middle with and there’s a lot of dead money out there. Go all-in.

9. I think most people (incorrectly) c-bet range OOP after 4-betting in almost all situations. I wouldn’t read much into his sizing or his decision to bet. I think it mostly means he has a hand that he four bet preflop with. I don’t see a reason to raise the flop, let him keep betting on the turn and the river.

10. You have to bet. We know nothing about this guy and you need to give him some rope to do something dumb with a stubborn KK, KQ, JJ, that doesn’t want to fold because there is so much dead money out there.

11. I do think there are some inconsistencies here with your thought process here, if you think he might four bet big card hands with blocker value why can’t he have AJ,AT or KQ here? If you think you are chopping at best every time he check shoves the turn, your assessment of his preflop range or turn range is off or you had a very strong live read, which if so, kudos on being right.

12. Unlucky. I think sometimes in fields like this there is a tricky preflop equilibrium where players will constantly flat opens with 74s or 98o, but rarely three, four, or five bet bluff. This makes life difficult for a hand like AKo or JJ that wants to three bet to try and play a three bet pot vs 74s, but immediately senses trouble if they get four bet. However, in this hand you knew from the jump that your opponent was not just loose preflop, but also aggressive preflop. I think you had a pretty easy preflop jam and played postflop fine. I would be very excited to call his turn jam even when he snap shoves and be disappointed to be knocked out of the tournament. Better luck next time and thank you for your submission.