Sunday Special #12 Michael Culpepper vs Michael Holtz

Holtz shakes Culpepper down, but has the mercy to not felt him.

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

Almost everyone who has submitted has given me a version of “I am not sure if this worthy of your analysis”. I assure you that is not the case, every poker hand presents an opportunity to learn something new. On to Michael Culpepper’s hand

We make reads in poker every day we play. Sometimes we know our opponents well and have a good idea of what they are doing and what they want us to think they are doing.

Sometimes the leveling goes deeper into the realm of your opponents thinking about what you are thinking about their thinking.

The point is when there is a leveling war, it’s easy to out level yourself. You stare at an opponent too long - or get stared at - and you can convince yourself that he or she is climbing the same mental leveling ladder that you are. Meanwhile your opponent has made his move and is now just staring at you wondering how an air compressor works.

That may not be the case in this hand but it is obvious that I put too much thought into what my opponent was thinking that I thought.

How does all that air get in there?

2024 WSOP Event #68 $2500 NLH
(SB/BB/BBA) (2k/5k/5k) 35k Starting Stack
525 of 2250 remain. 335 Cash. Late registration is closed.

Hero (137k) opens UTG to 10K with K♠️Q♣️ and action folds to the Mike Holtz on the BTN who calls off a stack of 245K (49BBs). The unknown player in the BB makes the call as well with 75K after the BB ante (15BBs).

Flop (37k) J♣️2♦️4♥️: BB checks, Hero checks, Holtz bets 6K, BB calls and Hero calls.

Turn (55k) Q♠️: BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 16K. BB calls and Hero calls.

River (103k) 5♣️: BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 101K. BB folds quickly and Hero tank calls leaving 4K back.

BTN shows down 5♥️5♦️ to take down the pot with a rivered set and Hero mucks.

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What was I thinking?

This hand was almost 2 years ago but I do remember it very well as to the considerations that went into my thought process.

We were still almost 200 players from the money so while ICM is always a consideration, I don’t believe it to be a major factor - for better or worse - in my decisions.¹ I am aware that Mike Holtz is the person occupying the BTN for whatever that is worth in the analysis.

Preflop seemed a standard open from UTG with 27 Bigs. When I get called by the BTN, I wasn’t surprised. The BB, for the small sample of time I spent at the table, seemed competent.

On this Jc2d4h flop, I will typically continue bet around 65% of the time from OOP. I believe the BB player being in the hand swayed me to lean towards checking this one.²

When BTN bets 6K into 35K, the BB took a good look at me before making the call. I read into this that he wouldn’t be too excited about me raising. However, while I considered raising, I remember the small size kind of spooked me.³ Though I decided against an aggressive node, it was obviously a good price to call and see what the turn brings.⁴

The Qs was a card that I was pleased to see. Not only does it hit my hand but it also works with my UTG range quite well and on a badugi board, if I have the best hand right now, I am likely to be the best after the river. With that in mind, I decided to check again to the BTN with the plan to raise should he continue his betting ways. When BTN bets again with a sizing of 16K, my thought was to raise All In to deny equity from hands like T9 or A5.⁵ However, when the BB called as well, dwindling himself down to 8.5 Bigs, I began to wonder if he was simply ready to “go with” this hand or if he had flopped a set of 4s or 2s and wanted to play passive to maximize his potential triple up. I -for lack of a better term - chickened out and called thinking that I could turn my made hand into a bluff catcher on most river cards.

On the river and after the BB check, I remember staring Holtz down a bit before checking in an effort to see if he was going to look at the BB to gauge interest. He did not. When I checked, he counted my stack and in my opinion purposefully bet slightly less than my total chip count of 105K.⁶ The BB folded rather quickly. My read at the moment was that he would perhaps bet this amount that is less than my stack with value for sure but maybe with his bluffs as well depending on the level that he thought my game resided. Ultimately I called because of how passive I ended up playing through the hand and using the old adage of “if you play it that way, you have to call down sometimes”.⁷

What I think NOW

I still think preflop is fine.⁸

On the flop, I still think that I should have some checks but wish the presence of the BB would have leaned me More toward c-betting rather than away from it.⁹

On the turn, I think I need to lead more.¹⁰ The size of BTN flop bet should be almost disregarded due to the small size when it comes to betting flow.¹¹ When I check and get the bet that I want, I didn’t follow through with my plan of check raising here. I don’t believe the range of the BB is as strong as I thought it was in game. I think this street was a large blunder by me.¹²

On the river, I now think that he doesn’t take this “less than all in” with his bluffs. I now think this was likely an exploitative maneuver. So for me to misread this tendency is also a blunder.¹³

Thoughts of QJ and A3 crossed my mind immediately. The problem - in my mind - with these two candidates is the sizing that he proposed at 2 separate decision points.

I would imagine the QJ, if it bets flop, would make the sizing a little more conventional at 1/3 or at least 1/4 pot.¹⁴

I think the A3 may make this tiny bet on flop but I would think it would check back the turn with the added gutterball equity against 2 opponents. - As an aside, I did think that the BB range could have A3 until his fold eliminated that option.¹⁵

As far as bluffs go, I didn’t get much further in game than KT or T9s.¹⁶

But as Pee Wee Herman says to Dottie at the end of Pee Wee’s Big Adventure, “I don’t need to watch it Dottie, I lived it”. I have probably over analyzed this hand more than any other in my poker playing and probably for the wrong reasons such as it was a big tournament for me buyin wise, it was against a good mid stakes pro, and it was moderately close to the bubble.¹⁷

Enough of what I think. Let’s hear what Sam has to say about it.¹⁸

Michael Culpepper

1. It’s not a major factor, but I think too many players treat ICM as a switch, it either matters or it doesn’t. It’s something that always effects your play sometimes a little, sometimes a lot. You are not at the stage where I’d consider folding KK preflop, but certainly at the stage where I’d change my overall strategy.

2. I’d be a little more inclined to bet this hand three ways than HU because three ways you can get the button to fold more ace high hands and it’s going to be harder to continue when you check and face a bet (foreshadowing).

3. You have two competing reads here, you think the short stack player is weak and the deeper stack player might be strong. If you think that, I would just fold right away. Your hand is weak enough that one player with a strong range is enough reason to fold.

4. You’re getting a good price to call if they were all-in, but with more money to play behind. You are not. Your path to winning the hand is rather challenging, you need to turn a pair or a ten to be excited about putting any money in the pot on the turn and those cards are good for you, but they still only give you strong top pair or an open ender.

5. In multi-way pots you play more aggressively and linearly and you have the perfect hand to raise on the turn. I think you are seeing monsters under the bed with the BB who can easily have any jack and would probably shove the turn with a set or two pair by this point in time. If you’re mostly ahead of the BB and there’s a lot of dead money. Just shove.

6. I don’t know your table image, but generally betting slightly less than all-in is a sign of strength. He thinks your a whale who might not want to call all-in, but will call 95% of your stack. That being said he also might have just miscounted your stack.

7. I think both your range and the BB’s range look very weak here and looks like a lot of hands like stubborn 99/TT, A4 or A5 (maybe some A3) and maybe some Jx that didn’t raise the flop. So if Mike had KQ or QT himself, I think he probably jams them, which means I think you need to call since you can beat and chop with value and you block potential value bets like AQ and QJ.

8. Yes

9. Actually the solver pure checks with range on the flop and never c-bets.

10. I don’t think leading makes much sense your hand looks a lot like 55-TT and you should rarely hit the queen turn. It seems more likely that the Mike turned a queen with an unpaired flop stab than you overfloated a hand like KQ.

11. It turns out his small flop size indicates he was cheating down and betting his hand strength. However it’s also possible he’s betting small as a trap or it’s possible that this is his normal bet size here. His small bet size is still a piece of information and not something that should be disregarded because it was so small.

12. I think you need to check-raise or check-fold the flop. You turned the gin card and still weren’t happy navigating the pot three ways. You just don’t have the right hand here.

13. I’m not a big table talk guy, but if he bets enough to leave me with 3k chips, I would start asking him why he chose that size and see if you could get any information off of him.

14. If we think his c-bet strategy is a little faceup and exploitable. I’d agree with this assesment.

15. While possible, I think betting a gutshot on turn is such a natural play that I’d never discount it.

16. The thing about his bluffs, is they could be anything. Both of your ranges look weak and anything that stabbed the flop could just decide to barrel off.

17. I think the bubble factor is pretty important here. Yes you aren’t that close to the money, but the flop call can’t be making much either way. No need to get in a tricky spot in a three way pot vs a good player when your hand probably isn’t worth very much to begin with. I know the temptation of making a loose call vs a very small bet and I’d be fine with it in a heads up pot, but it’s just too weak in a three way pot. I’d rather check-fold without a backdoor flush draw and check-raise with one, but check-raising any combo with two overcards to a J can never be that bad.

18. I think the main thing here is that Holtz played the hand in a way that is typical of people playing at these stakes. A lot of betting with medium strength hands because they don’t think they will get bluffed enough. 55 is a pretty good hand to bet on the flop, but a really dicey turn bet. Facing these types of players who bet too often with middle of range, responding by raising good hands and bluffs is a better adjustment than turning your hand into a bluff catcher.