Sunday Special #11 David Lappin's POTD Debut

A hand from the Pokerstars Cup in EPT Paris

My (Sam’s) thoughts are included in the footnotes. If you reading this via e-mail, it might be an easier read on Substack where the footnotes require less scrolling back and forth. Click here. On to the Sunday Special where we have a first time submitter.

In the POTD Survey (which you can still take here), someone said they wanted more posts to resemble the Sunday Special and other’s said they wanted me to write about more hands played by other people. Well if you are someone with those preferences, I have good news for, I am always taking submissions for future Sunday Specials and interesting hands to write about. Do not be shy if you have a lack poker skill or accomplishments. No solver analysis is required from you and I’d much rather have hobbyist poker players, who are good writers that can produce clean copies and clearly articulate their thought process than editing the writing of 99% of accomplished poker players. On to today’s hand

Our punter today is David Lappin, a professional poker player, writer and commentator. He has written over 800 blogs and articles on poker; including news, opinion and strategy. He is the producer and host of the 3-time GPI Global Poker Award winning podcast ‘The Chip Race.’ In 2025, he was nominated for the GPI Global Poker Award for journalism. David was a brand ambassador for Unibet Poker from 2017 until 2025, and is currently a Team Pro ambassador for PokerStars. His long playing career and content background ensure he provides readers with an unmatched insight into the world of professional poker.

You can watch my appearance with David and Dara on The Lock-In and you can read David’s rave review of POTD on Vegas Slots Online, which concludes with a hand for me to look at

In an era when poker strategy content often revolves around “optimal” play, Greenwood has built something around imperfection and a willingness to laugh at our imperfections. That is why the concept still feels fresh after a year and I sincerely hope I still feel that way after he analyzes a hand that I just sent him from my recent trip to EPT Paris. Why don’t you analyze it, too, and then check out Greenwood’s breakdown on this Sunday’s installment of Punt of the Day.

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Paris Pokerstars Cup, €825 buy-in.
290 left, 250 paid.

Table has noticeably slowed down and tightened, aware we are prob 20 hands from Bubble/Bag.

I have 315k at bb5k. Rest of table have 50-140k except for one guy who covers me. .
I open 10k with 5♥️4♥️ in LoJack.
Button (400k, only guy who covers me) raises to 30k. I call.

(72000) Flop J♥️6♥️2♣️
I check, he bets 20k, I call.

(112,000) Turn Q♥️
I check, he checks

(112,000) River 7♠️

I check, he bets 100k, I shove 265k. He cry-calls with QQ.

What I was Thinking

Despite the fact that I won this hand, I wondered about almost every decision point.

Should I steal with the 5♥️4♥️ given the danger man is on the button?¹

I think yes. The ‘locking up’ dynamics were such that stealing seemed good even with a few of the players behind having nice re-jam stacks. The one guy who covers me on the button is pesky but there was no battling for bubble domination vibes yet so I assumed he’d let the steal through him a lot.²

Should I call after he raises, even though I’m getting a great price?³

I think the price is too good with a suited connector but on the flipside, I’m holding both a 5 and a 4 and those cards are blocking his lighter 3bets.⁴ I suspect that I could maybe just pass this one rather than get into a hand that could get messy. Then again, this is the kind of hand that can make a super-strong hand and with my double-average stack, not a lot of my equity is in the min-cash so I’m not feeling the ICM handcuffs and thinking more about winning a huge one.⁵

Should I consider seizing the initiative and raising the flop with my combo draw?

My read pre-flop was my opponent actually had a legitimate 3bet rather than this being the first declaration of intent that he was the one going to pwn the bubble.⁶ I therefore preferred to flat, getting a great immediate price and with lots of implied odds to draw to a heart or 3.⁷

I don’t think leading the turn is a thing. ⁸

Should I bet the river rather than check it?

I’d guess that, in Solver-land, I’m supposed to bet my hand but I still thought that my opponent had something and that he would value-own himself with most of the hands with which he might call.⁹ I figured he would check back the turn with JJ-AA and AQ/KQ and pursue value with all of them.¹⁰ Maybe AJ/KJ call a small river bet, especially if they have a heart so I potentially lose value to those. However, maybe I get the check-shove called by JJ/QQ, Aces and Kings with a heart¹¹, AQ and KQ with a heart (even though having that heart blocks my bluffs too - this is where I don’t know whether it’s more important that he has heart or not).¹² By checking, I also open the door for a bluff, if he decides he can get me off 99/TT.

Is it too thin to shove my hand for value? ¹³

This might be where I messed up badly. Losing that 165K (an average stack) hurts a lot more than another 165K helps.¹⁴ It is possible that my opponent has the nuts and the question I should be asking myself is what can I realistically get called by. I don’t have many bluffs in this spot - My best bluff is probably A♥️Jx¹⁵ but he might fold AA/KK/AQ/KQ even with a heart and given the two minute table with QQ, I think he does.¹⁶ That said, maybe, those hands with a heart blocker are actually better calls because I’m pretty polarised, or maybe they’re not because like I said I’m not sure if blocker-effects matter more one way or other or cancel each other out here. Aaaaagh, I just don’t know! HELP!¹⁷

1. One of the qualities that makes 54s an attractive hand to open in any situation is that you can call a three bet with it. This close to the money I would not be interested in raise-calling a three bet with it. So I’d fold and stick to opening hands with better high-card and blocker value. There’s always a chance that in a soft big field Main Event type tourney that opening anything reasonable will be profitable near the bubble, but I don’t feel you’ve made the case for that.

2. The other problem with this open is that even in a cash game the open is not making much. If the button isn’t battling vs you, that makes opening more appealing, but you probably need an actively tight button the type that would just fold ATo or KJo or pocket fives to your open here to make this open a good exploit.

3. Unlike the open, calling the three bet should be making a good amount of chips, probably somewhere in the 0.5bbs range. Which might not sound like a lot, but is a lot to make when you’re only putting 4 more bbs in the pot. I think you can only open this hand if you can call a three bet and I think at this stage of the tournament, so close to the money, you can’t. So once again, I’d fold the first time and fold the second time.

4. Your blocker value here is relatively good, sure he may have A5s or A4s, but he’s much more likely to have KJo or ATo, which have hands like JTs dominated. The trade off is that the pairs you flop will be less valuable, but they’re usually cleaner.

5. People often underestimate the ICM value of a mincash in a bigfield tourney, but a min cash is worth a lot. Footnote on a footnote here, I did all the math that follows assuming this was the Pokerstars Open, not the Pokerstars Cup, but the concept still applies. When the bubble bursts at 239 26% of the prize pool will be paid out. The final 9 of the tournament will be paid out around 50% of the prizepool, which means 239-10th place cumulative payout greater than a mincash is roughly equal to the amount of money paid out the moment the bubble bursts.

6. Preflop is already marginal enough that if you read strength on the three-bettor preflop, I’d be even more inclined to fold to the three bet.

7. What’s tricky about your draw is it’s very strong, but also when you miss you have second nut low. So it’s not an ideal hand to get all-in with because if your opponent does something like four bet shove the flop with AK high, you’re not in great shape. Generally you don’t like getting all-in with strong draws that have no shot at winning at showdown unimproved. Especially as two big stacks near the bubble. I like check-calling.

8. Maybe on the Ah, but I don’t think you lead much on flush completers here.

9. The solver actually mostly checks flushes, unless they have Ah or Kh and then they mostly lead all-in.

10. Explotiatively this is the key question, if he’s the type of player who might check back strong top pair or an overpair and you have a flush that barely interacts with his calling range. You need to bet yourself. If you’re confident he will bet overpairs, go ahead and check.

11. AA and KK with a heart usually bet the turn because they are strong enough to stack off and have hands like 88 and 99 with a heart drawing slim and hands like 88 and 99 with a heart will never check-fold the turn, but often check-fold the river once the turn checks through.

12. When he has a heart on the river he’s less likely to run into traps, so he’s more inclined to make a thin value bet with a hand like KhKc compared to KsKc.

13. Absolutely not. He could have AhKh, but the combination of three betting a hand like Ah8h or Kh9h and checking the turn with it is very rare.

14. I’m going to keep cycling back to this, but if you are questioning whether you can shove a flush to this action. You have to fold preflop.

15. A hand you should probably fold preflop. I think your most common bluffs here are probably TT-88 with a heart.

16. I wouldn’t read too much into his river tank here, it’s a huge pot near the bubble. People like to take their time and he still might tank call black aces. Even if he rarely calls worse, he has better so rarely that I think you have to shove. I could hear the case for just calling with 66, but a flush is too strong.

17. I think having the Ah is good for him. It’s a card in a lot of your value range that should rarely be in your bluffs because you rarely call offsuit Ax preflop. The concern with QQ on the river is if you don’t check-shove a lower set or top two and if you bluff AhQx often, but rarely bluff ThTx . Then calling QQ becomes pretty unappealing pretty fast he never beats value and blocks your most common bluff. I think postflop from you is all fine, but preflop is a mistake. It turns out making a flush is a pretty good way to make up for making a bad preflop call.