POTD #325 Monte Carlo Monday: The Start of “Off Tree Week”

I take a non-approved solver line vs Dan Smith

A common refrain I hear from novice poker players is a version of “You must hate playing against players like me. I’m so unpredictable, you can never guess what I have.” They are incorrect. I love playing against players like them. They are not as unpredictable as they think, and it doesn’t matter if someone is “unpredictable” if they’re playing 40% of hands. Ask a casino if they care about an “unpredictable” blackjack player who hits on 18. These casual players are wrong, but there is a kernel of truth to what they’re saying: When you exclusively play vs. other elite players, you are used to hands following a certain rhythm. When you play vs. unpredictable players, you are often taken down branches of the game tree that you’re not “supposed to” go down. It’s in those spots where you can’t rely on your preparation and need to think on the fly.

Being able to adapt in unfamiliar situations is useful when playing vs. weaker players, but it’s also useful vs. elite players. Sometimes elite players will take you off-tree on purpose to exploit you, but almost as often, elite players will make mistakes and you’ll end up playing a hand you’d never play vs. a solver or trainer. This week, I’ll be writing about “off the beaten path” hands: three hands I played vs. three tough opponents where one or both of us made a play that is never or rarely made with range, and you’ll read about how we both navigated unfamiliar territory. Counting backwards, the third hand this week will be about a hand where I knowingly made a play I wasn’t supposed to make. The second hand this week will be about a hand where I don’t think either me or my opponent realized we were in a non-solver-approved line, and the first hand, today’s hand, will be about a hand where I think I could have figured out my line did not make sense and was not solver-approved, but I still played the hand that way anyways.

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It folds to Dan Smith (344k/137BBs) in the LJ who makes it 6.5k, It folds to me (253k/101bbs) in the BB with A♠️5♠️ who calls.

Flop (16.5k) A♥️K♦️6♣️: I check, Dan checks
Turn (16.5k) K♣️: I bet 5.5k, Dan calls
River (27.5k) 3♣️: I bet 9k, Dan makes it 46k, I fold.

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What I Was Thinking

I had As5s in the BB and figured this would be an occasional three-bet from the BB, but not a mandatory one. I likely rolled a passive number and just called. On the flop, there is obviously no leading from me, and I expected Dan to c-bet often, but not always. Once he checked back, I thought this was a bad turn for me, but not so bad that I’d always check with my range. I did not think I’d play overbet or a big bet size, but I could occasionally block with hands like flush draws, gutshots, 6x, pocket pairs, Kx, and of course some top pair as well. I rolled a very aggressive number and figured that block was the best play, so I did. When I blocked and Dan just called, I figured his most likely hands were hands in the QQ-77 range and that I was going to check-call a bet anyways, so I might as well bet myself. I bet, Dan raised, I felt as if I had put enough money in the pot already, especially once the flush filled, and if I wanted to call a raise with an Ax combo, I could at least wait until I had a flush blocker.

What I Got Wrong

I have a much higher frequency three-bet than I might have initially guessed and three-bet around half the time, but calling is fine. Dan almost always c-bet the flop, but he does mix in the occasional check. I was correct that most of his checking range are pocket pairs, around 38% of his check-back range. The problem is that 42% of his check-back range are Ax and Kx. So even on a king turn, his range has 66% equity vs. mine, he has trips almost twice as much as me, and his trips have on average a higher kicker than mine. When you are at a range disadvantage, a nuts disadvantage, and you’re deep-stacked out of position on the turn, you should not bet. I check my entire range here. Betting the exact value of your hand is never all that costly, and if I did want to play a turn betting range, it does make sense to include some Ax in it. Ideally I’d like to at least have the A5 that blocks K5s, which I did not.

Once I bet the turn, value betting the river is okay. I have some obvious bluffs, I can get called by QQ-77, but my size is too large and I should bet something closer to 1bb, especially when I could just be value betting against a better ace. If I had AQ here, my river size is defensible, but this is way too big with A5. I might have only bet 2.5bbs too many, but I also bet ~3x more than I should. Once Dan raises, folding to the raise seems like the best play; it’s rare to make a value bet that is too thin with a hand that doesn’t block value and still want to call a raise with it.

Types of Errors
Bad turn range strategy

Grade

This is a hand where I was too focused on balance and being unpredictable and not focused enough on the basic logic of the hand. Dan raised preflop from early position, and even when he checks back an AK6 flop, his range is much stronger than mine. The types of hand he checks back on this flop— the types of hands any player checks back on any flop— are often middle pair-type hands. When middle pair turns into trips, and I’m already at a range disadvantage, I should just check. I was more concerned with making sure I had some top pair in my turn betting range that I didn’t even bother to ask “Should I be betting the turn at all?” So I made one mistake by going off tree and betting the turn, but that mistake was not all that costly, provided that I occasionally bet Kx on the turn as well. Once I did go off tree, my river bet was too thin for my hand, which is not just a generic “top pair,” but weak top pair that should have bet smaller. Two very clear mistakes that don’t cost me much EV means off tree week begins with a

C