POTD #221 Monte Carlo Monday: I Call $50,000 with Ace High

A hero call gone wrong.

Last week during Monte Carlo Monday I wrote about overbet bluffing with A3 nothing vs. Kristen Foxen in POTD #216, and I discussed the disconnect between a hand that looks like a punt vs. a hand that is a punt. Having no pair, no draw, no blockers and just betting until you’re all-in certainly feels like a punt, but the solver says otherwise. Today, we will be looking at a hand from the opposite side of the spectrum. I had AQ high, faced a river shove, and decided to look my opponent up. Was it a good call? You can read on to find out my ultimate conclusion, but calling with a bad hand and seeing a good hand is never a good feeling, and in the moment it almost always feels like a punt.

Today’s hand represents a tricky spot that’s relatively common in three-bet pots, where one or both players often have AK or AQ high. I remember playing online tournaments in 2010, and I’d play three-bet pots where the preflop raiser checked back, say, 964, and I’d value bet the turn and river with pocket twos because I knew the other player always had AK. Poker players have gotten less predictable since the advent of solvers, but it’s still wild to see many three-bet outputs validate the instincts I had in 2010: If you beat AK high, you can value bet as if you have top set. In today’s hand, I had one pip worse than AK high and had to ask myself: Can I bluff catch?

Triton PokerMonte-Carlo 2024- Event #5 $50K NLH
(1k/2k/2k) (SB/BB/BBA) 200k Starting Stack. Registration is Open

It folds to me on the button with A♦️Q♣️ (225k) I make it 6k, it folds to Lewis Spencer in the BB (149k) who makes it 26k, I call.

Flop (55k) 9♦️6♠️4♠️: Lewis bets 23k, I call.
Turn (101k) 6♣️: Lewis checks, I check.
River (101k) 3♦️: Lewis bets 99k, I call and lose to J♦️9♥️.