POTD #216 Monaco Monday: I Empty the Clip vs Kristen Foxen
well ... almost all of it, I left 1BB behind as is the convention.
I kicked off 2026 by writing about flop c-bet decisions, then turn two-barreling decisions, and we’re going to wrap up January by writing about the final decision. What happens when you fire twice and you end up on the river with nothing? I remember talking to Ben “Sauce123” Sulsky about a PLO player; he said “he never bluffs,” I said “I saw him bluff with the nut flush blocker in this spot,” and he responded “that’s not a bluff.” The point he was making was that if you have a card that blocks the the nuts and use it to represent it in a game where you often need the nuts to value bet, it’s not a sign of a player who’s aggressive or creative, but just a sign that they can occasionally bluff when the conditions line up perfectly.
I have taken this a step further and have coined a type of player that I call a “nitty bluffer,” which is someone who bluffs often— and sometimes, as in POTD #194, too often— when they have a reason to bluff. If they’re the chip leader, if a card is good for their range, if they have a relevant blocker, they always bluff. This means, when their most common value bets are straights or flushes or full houses, they will often be bluffing the correct amount or too often. When their most common value bets are top pair or two pair or sets, they are often not bluffing enough. The reason to bluff in any given situation is rather simple: It’s not because you have a blocker or a range advantage; it’s that you have value bets. If you are ever value betting, you also need to bluff. That’s the balance that any strong poker player strives for.
In a pre-solver era, most players were “nitty bluffers” in part because they didn’t find enough loose turn barrels, which meant they couldn’t always find enough river bluffs. The types of players who just decided to blast off no draw, no blocker, nothing were usually deemed maniacs, but they were also players who won a lot of money without showdown vs. players who would fold too often on rivers. This week I am going to be looking at hands where I had nothing on the flop and turn, bet twice and got called, and had to ask myself— should I fire the river? We start with a trip to Monte Carlo, where once again I have a wheel ace with no pair no draw and decide to put maximum pressure on my opponent. It didn’t work in POTD #1 or POTD #212, but maybe it will work today.
Triton Monte-Carlo 2024 $30K NLH - Event #2
(1k/1.5k/1.5k) (SB/BB/BBA). 200k Starting Stack. Registration is open.
It folds to me (158k) LJ with A♣️3♣️ and I make it 3.5k, it folds to Kristen Foxen (300k) who calls in the BB.
Flop (9.5k) Q♦️T♥️4♥️: Kristen checks, I bet 9.5k, Kristen calls.
Turn (28.5k) 4♦️: Kristen checks, I bet 26k, Kristen calls.
River (80.5k) 5♣️: Kristen checks, I bet 118k, leaving 1k back, Kristen shoves, I fold.
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