POTD #142 The Biggest Hand of the Triton Jeju II Main Event
A Latvian Lad tries to bluff a German Gent
Sometimes when I am rewatching final tables, I worry, will there be a hand at this final table worth writing about? The Triton Jeju II Main Event final table was not one of those spots; with five people left in the tournament, Aleks Ponakovs ran a bluff that Ali Nejad called a “Ponakovs Special.” If Cristoph called, the pot would be for over half the chips in the tournament and Ponakovs would likely crash out in 5th place. If the bluff worked, Ponakovs would have almost caught Ben Heath for the chip lead and put himself in position for his first Triton Main Event title. On the flip side, Cristoph had a pure bluff catcher, and if he called and won he would have the momentum of a “runaway freight train” and could win the whole tournament.
Ali and Randy began their commentary on the hand talking about candy– Ali panned Skittles before praising Nerds gummies, which Randy also is a fan of. By the end of the hand they were not talking about frivolous things, but the monster pot that was unfolding at this final table. At the end of the hand, Ali mixed some metaphors and described the Hand of the Tournament as “a stone cold Aleks Ponakovs stick-you-in-the-blender spot and Vogelsang took that heat.” When a hand is described like that, I need to write about it for POTD.
The sims for today’s hand were run and provided free of charge to the POTD audience by the team at Octopi Poker. If you would like more content from Octopi Poker, sign up by clicking the following link and use code: PUNT for 50% off 1st month for monthly subscriptions and 2 free months for annual subscribers.
Samuel Mullur (5.2M) folds HJ, Ben Heath (18M) folds CO, Xu Liang (3.7M) folds OTB, Alex Ponakovs (12.9M) calls SB with T♦️6♦️, Christoph Vogelsang (17.1M) makes it 1.3M with K♠️2♣️, Ponakovs calls.
Flop (3M) K♦️Q♦️J♥️: Ponakovs checks, Vogelsang checks.
Turn (3M) 3♣️: Ponakovs bets 2M, Vogelsang calls.
River (7M) 8♣️: Ponakovs bets 9.35M leaving 25k back, Cristoph calls.
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What Aleks Was Thinking
As always, I don’t know what he is thinking, but what follows is my best guess. Aleks is in third place with two short stacks and doesn’t want to play a big pot vs. Cristoph or Ben, so he’s going to rarely raise first-in BvB. A suited ten that can flop a straight is too strong a hand to limp-fold, especially vs. a 3.25x raise. The KQJ flop is actually not too bad for Aleks’s range— Cristoph will have a lot more total air— but I doubt Aleks was playing any leads with his range on this board.
On the turn, Aleks has a very strong draw and knows a big bet can fold out better hands like ace high and one-pair hands ranging from a pair of threes to a pair of jacks. On the river, Aleks probably has one of his weakest tens; T8 pairs and would give up, and T2-T5 would fold preflop, so T6 and T7 are his weakest hands (it’s unlikely he would bet the turn with total air like 65hh on such a connected board). So he felt he had a bottom-of-range hand and decided to put Cristoph to the test by betting all but one of his chips, something he could easily do with two pair and straights. Cristoph called and Ponakovs exited the Main Event in 5th place shortly afterwards
What Sam Thinks (No Cheating)
I think preflop is sound; I am not sure if he should never raise first in here with range, but I might simplify the spot by making that my first-in strategy here. I wouldn’t be shocked if the flop played some leads, because this board is actually rather good for our limp-calling range, but again I would simplify to pure checking here. On the turn, we have an open-ended straight flush draw and bet 2/3rds pot; it’s hard to think of a more normal poker play than that.
On the river, I would default to giving up with diamonds, but I am not sure if that’s right. We are not all that worried about Cristoph having ten- or six-high diamonds himself. If he has a hand like T3 or TT or JT, I don’t feel all that confident he will have the Td more than, say, the Th or Tc. However, if I decided to bet this hand, I would choose a smaller size— for chips, I think all-in is a reasonable size here; you should never have a set, but if you have two pair, you have more than enough hand to shove for 133% pot. At this final table, you value staying in the tournament and giving yourself a chance to outlast the other two short stacks, Xu Liang and Sam Mullur. A bet of 15bbs would leave you as the shortest stack in the tournament, but you would be one blind steal away from being back in third place. I don’t think he has the right combo to bluff with, and I think his size is too large; while his size puts the maximum pressure on Cristoph’s exact hand, it’s too risky a play.
What Sim Thinks
Once again, we want to thank the team at Octopi Poker for running sims that could be used for today’s blog. It takes some work off my plate and allows me to spend more time writing and analyzing hands and less time building game trees. Ponakovs never raises first in with range and always limp-calls his specific hand. He frequently leads the flop with range and hand— 30% of the time globally and 45% of the time with his hand. However, defaulting to checking range is probably the normal play for most humans and might even be the best play if BBs don’t slowplay vs. a lead often enough or c-bet too much vs. a check. On the turn, Ponakovs has a pure bet by a good amount, and he mostly picks the size he used. Once again, betting with an open-ended straight flush draw is a very normal poker play. A 2/3rds pot bet generates folds from ace high, pocket pairs lower than 88, and some Jx and Qx.
On the river, the solver does not pick all-in and in the Octopi sim never bets larger than 75% pot. Like me, the solver wants Ponakovs to preserve some chips when he’s bluffing, and betting smaller allows him to value bet as thin as KT. If he wants to play an all-in size, he would probably need a straight or 33 for value. The BB always calls top pair vs. a 75% pot bet and mixes when Ponakovs pseudo-shoves. Ponakovs also has a pure give up on the river, though it’s unclear that diamonds are all that bad to be bluffing with. Cristoph is more likely to bet the flop with Td2c than Tc2d, and he doesn’t have many Tx or 6x flush draw combos— just 76, 86, and T8— and he calls the river with TdTx more than other TT combos. However, the solver has added up all the combos and concluded you don’t want two diamonds in your hand, so it’s time to give up and wave the white flag.
Types Of Errors
ICM is for rich people because they ladder at final tables.
Final Thoughts and Grade
Oftentimes in hands like this, I have minor quibbles with the strategies on early streets, but I really don’t have any in today’s hand. Ponakovs could lead the flop, but otherwise every decision made before the river is standard and correct. I think the river is a pretty big punt; by betting any amount of chips, he made an error with a hand that should give up, but if you’re going to bet, this is not the size with range or hand. Cristoph deliberated on the river and concluded that his hand, which should be very close, was a call. It’s possible he did something systematic and randomized, but I think it’s more likely he concluded that Ponakovs is overall bluffing too much in this spot and called him down. Cristoph all but knocked Ponakovs out of the tournament here and converted his chip lead into a win and his third $4M+ cash. There were many hands along the way that led to his win, but receiving this punt was the most consequential hand he’d play.
C
Yes. The Latvian Lat was more valuable than the USD when Latvia joined the EU in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_lats