Week in Review #7 May 4th - May 10th
I’m on the road this weekend, so in lieu of a preamble, I am going to share some analysis from a paid post this week. As always, if you want more analysis like this please consider becoming a paid subscriber. The subscription tiers and all the ways to contact me are listed here.
In POTD #31, Alex Theologis limped blind vs blind, I raised KQ suited from the BB 35 deep, bet half pot on K95 rainbow and bet 60% on a K turn that put up a flush draw. I thought the turn was a pure bet, but it turns out I mixed checks, my analysis from POTD #31 is quoted below
On the turn I pure bet and didn’t even consider checking. At equilibrium. KQ and QQ mix checks, but KJ/KT and JJ/TT always bet. Why could that be? JT is a pure fold on the turn as the OOP player, because the IP player is sometimes bluffing queen high. KQ and QQ are now incentivized to let JT, which they have drawing dead, stay in the hand, so it can bluff, pair, or even better, make a straight and get stacked. Betting doesn’t lose EV, but it didn’t even cross my mind to check because, once again, I felt my range was stronger than the SB because I had more very strong hands preflop. The SB has 59% equity on the turn and my range needs some protection.
Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers
POTD #31 ran a sim that forced a flop check from Theologis after he limp called
POTD #32 used alternate PF ranges and forced a small turn block size from Steve O’Dwyer
POTD #33 A Rocket Solver sim for the turn and two separate PIO river sims
POTD #34 a PIO sim that accounted for a tighter preflop opening range and a postflop sim that made sure it had my exact sizing
POTD #35 a PIO ICM sim using HRC preflop ranges
Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers
Everyday premium subscribers get additional analysis, here is a sample from POTD #34
POTD #34 onemorething which rivers do I check and which do I bluff? Let’s start with the easy ones, I check an ace pure. I mostly check a 9 and mostly check a 3. I bluff the 3 of spades a little more often than offsuit 3, but still mix. KJT, all pure bluff more or less. Offsuit cards that I don’t pair or double pair the board, almost pure bluff. The spades that I mix checks on are 2-7 where no straight draws fill. An 8 still does a lot of checking with my range whether it is or is not a spade and last, but not least, a Q river. On a Q river AA becomes ones of my highest frequency value bets, so bluffing with an ace is appealing, but is not mandatory, it also mixes. The only really pure strategies I have with my hand are pure checking an ace, and pure bluffing TJK.
Media
Social Media round up: I’ve been conducting polls on Twitter to ask you, the reader about my punts. The hivemind correctly said my biggest mistake in POTD #25 was my river bet, but unfortunately said my biggest mistake in POTD #32 was my turn raise, when I felt my biggest mistake remained my river bet.
A reminder that people who follow me on Twitter can ask me about any hand history of their choosing here and subscribers can ask me about a second hand history in the comments here and premium subscribers can ask me about a third hand history in the POTD Discord
My one recommendation this week is another instrumental album, I listened to while writing many blogs this week. André 3000’s - 7 piano sketches. I liked it. I don’t have much to say about the music, but André is one of my favourite artists of all time and even though he’s not rapping, I like that he’s not making lazy retreads of his best music or totally lost his marbles (like certain other rap artists who released an album this week) and he seems happy. I find it very moving that arguably the greatest rapper of all time has stopped rapping so he can make flute and piano albums that he finds more fulfilling. He has nothing left to prove to anyone and is following his muse.
That being said, I still love hearing him rap so here’s a deep cut of his that I’ve been listening to a lot recently The Art of Storytellin' Pt. 4