Week In Review #47 February 22nd-28th

I give my thoughts on Brad Owen's viral twitter "vent"

Brad Owen went on Twitter and posted a long “vent” about where he opened up about the current downswing he is on and what he feels about the current poker landscape for players and people in poker media. He talks about his personal story, the stress he is feeling, and the pressure he puts on himself, and it is an open and raw look into what he’s going through. His post is wide-ranging and I recommend you read it all. I cannot comment on everything he wrote about; POTD is not turning down sponsorship deals from anyone, let alone potential bad actors. However, I have some perspectives and opinions on what he wrote about that I’d like to share.

I’m up about a million lifetime in poker, but it’s not that much over the course of 20+ years. I’m down $400k from the high point before the 2024 WSOP started.

I appreciate that he downplays how much he won by noting the time it took him to win it. If I worked at McDonalds for as long as I’ve played poker, I’d “be up a million flipping burgers,” (before taxes) which doesn’t sound nearly as glamorous as making a million playing poker.

He also engages in downswinger’s lament, measuring your current financial situation relative to your peak. This is an unhealthy way to view your measure of your net worth, but it’s natural to do so. The idea that I’d be better off if I watched TV all day than travelled the world playing poker 14 hours a day for a month is a feeling I know all too well.

I’ve done pretty much everything in poker except win a major title so I’ve torched money in mixed games trying to get better and learn/play with the best in small field large buy-in events.

Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Most people in my poker circle have won lots of major titles, and many are jaded or indifferent about adding another trophy to their mantle. Winning a WSOP bracelet on stage at The Rio felt unfathomable when I was 18, and when I won my first live tournament and won a bracelet on stage at The Rio when I was 23, I was ecstatic. My bracelet is currently in a box in the basement of my house. I am not hiding it as an act of defiance, but it’s not something I am interested in looking at every day, and with one toddler and another on the way, space in my house for personal memorabilia is limited.

I don’t know how much time I have left in this space before I get too burnt out. Time with my family is what makes me the most happy and I don’t get to be with them or be there for them quite as much as I would like. My health is deteriorating as well and I just can’t keep up at the pace I’ve been at the last several years even though there are plenty of reasons to keep churning out videos as frequently as I can.

After almost a year of doing POTD, I can say that I have underestimated how much work goes into making poker content. I write a 1000+ word post every day and make 5-10 minute videos every day for Premium Subscribers. In addition to that, I respond to every comment on this blog and most of the messages I receive on social media. The second part does not seem like much work, but doing a dozen 5-10 minute tasks every day really adds up. I’d imagine the burden of small tasks adding up is even more onerous for people who need to do things like edit video or livestream every day. That being said, for me it’s led to a much healthier lifestyle than travelling and having large financial swings daily. So in that regard, I cannot relate to Brad.

I actually made it in the poker industry - I’m on the same f***ing team as Ivey!! Most days I’m super grateful and appreciative.

I’ve written about this before, but I’ve played poker against Phil Ivey, and he not only knows who I am, but respects my game. This is something I could never have imagined would have happened 20 years ago. Like Brad, I am grateful.

I don’t like where some things are headed. I hate YouTube shorts. I hate AI voiceovers. I hate that a lot of people are promoting the game in a way that I don’t think is healthy for younger people to see because the approach is that they’re content creators first trying to do the most exciting thing and not the most responsible thing.

I am at the age where I find myself thinking more and more “I don’t like where things are headed.” I don’t want to be a reactionary crank, but it can be hard. I don’t want to spend all day talking about how much better it used to be, but there are new trends that I bristle against. One of the reasons I created Punt of the Day was, I decided I’d rather create something that fills a niche that is not being met, than complain about why the most popular things are actually bad. From day one, I’ve aimed for POTD to be the antidote to things like YouTube shorts, TikTok, and short-form video filled with cheap-looking AI. I’m 37 years old, and I’ve come to terms with the fact that my taste is not always aligned with that of the general public, but the rise of short-term video is something I find especially dispiriting, in poker, but also everywhere. I find it facile and unchallenging, but I am not above it; I watch too much of it because it’s very engaging. It’s addicting and popular, which means it is everywhere, including in my feeds.

I do not believe society will bend to my wishes and make pithy blog posts more popular than short videos, which means I don’t think POTD will become some of the most popular poker content. When I started POTD, I looked around the poker landscape and saw a lot of things I did not like in content and form, and I wanted to create my own thing. I wanted to make something that was high quality, candid, fairly priced, and something I would be proud of, and I think I succeeded. I am trying to tell the truth and give you a window into my world, which is not nearly as exciting as putting your whole bankroll on the table in an attempt to go viral. I have many loyal readers, but they tend to be in the words of Marc Maron, “my people.” I appreciate all of your support.

It actually hurts me to see top level players like Jeremy Ausmus, Seth Davies, and even Chidwick to some extent, make poker content on YouTube/Twitter/Instagram. Nearly all of the poker content, especially from these guys is objectively good for poker, but vlogs used to be something that most top guys shit all over and now we’re seeing them with stands and cameras at the table because the major poker companies don’t give the best players ambassador roles anymore.

I’ve mostly been aligned with Brad in this post, and the below isn’t a direct response to what I quoted above, but it’s a rant I’ve wanted to get off my chest. So in the spirit of Brad’s venting, I am going to do some myself. I’ve barely played live poker in the past year, and one reason I am mostly making written poker content is so that “making poker content” and “playing poker” were as independent as possible. I hate playing with vloggers. The idea that someone should be able to slow down or otherwise disrupt a game people are paying a lot of money in rake to play, even for one second, so that they can monetize the content they create is obnoxious and selfish. I do not care if in the long run it grows the game and the rising tide lifts all boats. In the moment, the paying customers are given shitty service to appease content makers. If someone ever sees me with a selfie stick at a table, feel free to throw it on the ground. If you see me with a selfie stick recording myself with a live hand, feel free to hit me over the head with it. [I have a good idea for a prank now. -ed]

If you’d like to beat me to death with a selfie stick or you can start step one in this long process by giving me a pittance of your money, which would allow me to buy a selfie stick, which if I use, you’ll be legally allowed to assault me with (this claim has not been vetted by a lawyer). If you’d just like to read more of my thoughts on poker hands and the poker world. You can click on the subscribe button below.

Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers

Premium subscribers get the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, sims that are more accurate and appropriate than equivalent sims in the big public libraries, videos of me walking through the sims, and a text summary of how I ran the sims. This week I uploaded:

• An IOU for POTD #236; I showed how much wider you can shove UTG with a BB ante in play

• Flop, turn, river and node-locked river RocketSolver sims for POTD #237

• Three different PIO sims looking at different sizing options for POTD #238

• A Rocket flop sim and PIO turn sim for POTD #239

• Two different PIO ICM sims for POTD #240

Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers

Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included on Substack. Today, I’ll share #onemorething from POTD #239 where I write about specific blocker mechanics.

POTD #239 ⁠onemorething This feels like something I may have written in a previous ⁠onemorething and apologies if I have, 239 is a lot. One of the tricky things about blockers is identifying that they exist vs identifying what do they mean. A good example of this is in HUNL you often don’t want to three barrel with the Ac on a board with three clubs on it because you want your opponent to have one pair with the Ac or just ace high with the Ac. It’s a nut flush blocker, but also a nut flush draw blocker. On the river you want to block the nut flush, but not the nut flush draw and your opponent has more nut flush draws than nut flushes. In this hand we have two blockers in our hand where the suit matters one is rather simple you want the 7s or 7h because they block K7 suited.

The Ac is complicated because it’s a much better blocker on the flop, your two pair outs are stronger and you can turn a lot of equity and potential bluffs. On a blank turn your two pair outs remain stronger, but you no longer have a backdoor flush draw and you still have the potential to bluff club rivers. So it’s unclear if you’d rather have the Ac or the As, however the solver gives a pretty clear answer. You don’t want the Ac because a huge percent of your opponent’s bluffs have the Ac in them and many of those Ac bluffs will give up on a blank river. What’s especially tricky about this mechanic is a characteristic of your hand changes so quickly on a blank turn a good side card on the flop becomes a bad one on the turn. The next level is recognizing that a non ace of club kicker is actually a stronger one, like what happened in today's hand. It’s relatively easy to understand when explained in a classroom setting like this, but hard to execute in game.

Media

I was on the Mechanics of Poker Podcast, and my appearance has generated quite a few POTD subscriptions. Welcome to the new subscribers, I hope you’re enjoying your introduction to POTD. You can watch my entire episode here. It was a fun conversation where we touched on a lot of things about my life in poker.

Have a nice weekend, and as always I can be reached on

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