Week In Review #19 July 27th - August 2nd
A short one this week
It is a holiday weekend in Canada and I’m away for the weekend so I am going to keep this Week in Review, as brief as I can. A reminder if you’re interested in more poker content, check out GTOLab and Run It Once
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Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers
Premium subscribers get the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, sims that are more accurate and appropriate than equivalent sims in the big public libraries, videos of me walking through the sims, and a text summary of how I ran the sims. This week I uploaded:
An FGS and plain ICM sim of the bustout hand I wrote about in POTD #91
One PIO sim and two node locked ICM sims for POTD #92
One PIO sim from the flop and two PIO sims from the turn for POTD #93
A Rocket Solver flop sim and a turn solve for POTD #94
Two PIO ICM sims for POTD #95
Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers
Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included on Substack. Today I’ll share #onemorething, which expanded on some comments I got in the replies for POTD #92
POTD #92 onemorething When there are unusual leads, I think there are a couple ways to measure the practical size of the error you’ve made. If you have a hand that pure leads, you can measure the EV loss of that specific play. If you have a range that often leads, but no hand does it pure, you can measure the total EV loss of your range by not playing leads. You can look at your opponent’s response to a dark check strategy and see if your opponent will play a strategy like that. In this case if I dark check the turn, Ike dark checks the turn back, if you think your opponent will bet a lot versus a check, dark checking could still be the highest EV strategy even in a spot where you often lead. However, in today’s onemorething I am going to focus on another way to measure it, how specific is this lead to a specific board or runout. To use this hand as an example, whether the flop is KJT, KQJ, KQT flush draw, I play leads on flush filling and offsuit 9 turns. This shape holds when the spades on the flop are the bottom two cards or the top two cards or when the flop is rainbow. It holds 35 deep and 75 deep. It holds in LJ vs BU 3bp and CO vs BU 3bp. This is an uncommon play in the sense that you don’t play OOP three bet pots on boards with three broadways very often, but the pattern is clear here. In 3bp pots, you should often lead with range on turns like this. Which is part of the reason, I think my turn check is a reasonably large miss, even if it doesn’t lose EV.
Media
No poker media from me this week and the only non-poker media I consumed this week Amazon’s Overcompensanting. It’s okay, but it’s set at a college at roughly the time I went to college and it’s shot in Toronto. So I’ve enjoyed watching it, but I can’t heartily recommend it.
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