Week in Review #16 July 6th-July 12th

And Week #2 of Punt of the WSOPME

How’s everyone doing? I’ll be honest, I am tired. Tracking all of the punts in the Main Event has been slightly more work than I anticipated; I am at times getting a little obsessive about leaving no stone unturned, which means this week in review post will be on the shorter side. A reminder you can follow along with the POTWSOPME in the blog post linked below.

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Testimonials

This week in picture form:

I especially like James’s kind of words because he has summarized what I am aiming for with this project. Glad to be of service.

Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers

Premium subscribers get the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, sims that are more accurate and appropriate than equivalent sims in the big public libraries, videos of me walking through the sims, and a text summary of how I ran the sims. This week I uploaded:

• A Three Way Rocker Solver flop sim and a heads up turn PIO sim for POTD #76

• A PIO sim using the exact sizes used in the hand for POTD #77

• A PIO ICM sim for POTD #78

• A PIO cEV sim using the exact sizes used in POTD #79

• A PIO ICM sim for POTD #80

Last week I promised that if I got 200 paying subscribers I would post my analysis of the final hand of the Wynn Millions. It is embedded below.

Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers

Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included on Substack. Today I’ll share #onemorething I posted about POTD #76. I wrote about how to play versus loose players who often have hands they’re not supposed to have.

Tan Xuan is a much better poker player than Nicholas Rigby, but they’re both very loose poker players who have hands they’re not “supposed” to have all the time. I think one thing people might get wrong when playing with these people is conflating them having a lot more combos of strong hands with them having a higher frequency of strong hands. The latter is what matters more. In this spot Tan is supposed to have trips or better ~6% of the time. The only combos he has are 65s, 66, 77 and 76s. If you do give him credit for having 86s, 96s, 64s, A6s, etc. It gives him a lot more trips, but then you also need to give him credit for having T8s/97s/KQo/A8s, etc.

You’ll remember when someone who “can have anything” wins a massive pot of you with a garbage hand, but unless you are a guy who has a favourite hand; for example, you might want to tread carefully on A54 vs Rigby, It’s really hard for anyone to expand their range in a way that gives them a great hand more often than someone playing an appropriate range. It’s easy to see monsters under the bed, the flop is 558 and you saw him flat a button open with k5o. You still should be worried about trips, but remember there are 6 combos of K5o, 12 combos of K6o and 9 combos of K8o. Even if they have more trips combos than they should, it’s unlikely they have it more often. Maybe someone is playing all the offsuit kings, but only putting a lot of money in the pot when they hit, that’s something to consider later down the tree, but it should not affect your cbetting strategy that much. You have a bigger range advantage than you’re supposed to; use it.

Media

I did a lot of WSOP ME commentary this week. All the links are timestamped to when my commentary started, except for Day 2C where I was on from the beginning: Day 2C, Day 2D, Day 3

I saw F1 in theatres and enjoyed it. It has some very stupid parts that led me to roll my eyes (and not just the poker scene). It also features one of my favourite tropes in Bruckheimer-core cinema. Ruben Cervantes (Javier Bardem) is trying to convince Sonny Hayes (Brad Pitt) to come out of retirement, and Cervantes hands Hayes a physical boarding pass for a flight that is in Sonny Hayes’ name. Good luck getting a physical boarding pass for an international flight in someone else’s name without their ID. I ate all my popcorn, drank all my Diet Coke, and enjoyed myself throughout this fun, dumb movie.