Week in Review #13 June 15th - June 21st
Allow me to give you a peek behind the curtains. I’m having a lot of fun writing this Substack, but I also would like for it to grow. That means when there is a poker hand that goes so viral Doug Polk feels compelled to make a YouTube video about it, I will write about it. I’ve written about how it’s tiresome that certain big personalities suck up all the oxygen in poker, but the reality is, if I want the Substack to grow, I need to write about the popular things everyone is talking about and this week that was Martin Kabhrel. I thought POTD #62 was a very interesting poker hand, and I was quite pleased with my analysis of the hand. Unsurprisingly, that analysis did not get the traction of me noting that Martin Kabhrel can be an annoying table presence. I am not looking to play the woe-is-me game; I chose to write about that hand. That was my choice, but if you’re a new subscriber here because of that hand, I’d suggest checking out #62, a hand newsletter that in my opinion, deserves a little more love. If you’d like to read even more analysis of “the hand,” you will find some in today’s Week in Review post, but first…
As always, if you like what you’re reading on this newsletter, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Paid subscribers can ask me about any poker hand they played in the comments here, and unpaid subscribers can ask me here. The subscription tiers and all the ways to contact me are listed here.
Additional Sims For Premium Subscribers
Premium Subscribers get the raw files of sims I used to write my POTDs, videos of me walking through the sims, and a text summary of how I ran the sims. This week I uploaded:
Two PIO sims testing the ideal check raise size from Addamo and my response to them
A PIO ICM sim where I adjusted the payouts to mimic what the actual three handed payouts of this PKO were
A rocket solver sim of a three-way three-bet pot to show that the computer does not like making big shoves on JTx flops
A PIO sim forcing my opponent to use the actual sizes he used in-game
Then for the hand everyone is talking about: Martin Kabhrel vs. David Peters. I did some “mixed media” solving. My explanation is quoted below:
I am uploading three sims today in a sort of mixed media approach. I took GTOLab preflop ranges from a 151 left 150 people cash tournament. I took those preflop ranges and ran a rocket solver cEV flop sim. I took those flop ranges and ran some heads up PIO ICM turn solves. In the actual hand Martin should not three bet the flop, Martin and Daniel are not playing ranges or strategies that are particularly close to solver strategies. David is playing against two players who aren’t playing solver strategies and would be foolish to counter their play with perfect solver play and he is not doing that. So at the risk of undermining all the work I put in: What exactly is the value of the sims I created? It doesn’t make mathematical sense to toggle street by street between cEV and ICM ranges and the players aren’t even playing strategies like the ones the solver suggests. I think the value of these outputs are not to give you a solution you can copy and implement in your own game. If I could bet on a strong human player or my mixed media solves in an actual poker game, I’d bet on a strong human player every time. What’s important here is my experiment should provide some helpful baselines that you can implement in an actual game. Some claims I can make quite confidently, like three betting the flop with any hand in your range is bad from Martin. Some I can say less confidently, like minbetting the flop is a reasonable range play from Martin and some like, Qs6s should be a neutral EV bluffcatcher vs b75 on the river from Martin are total hogwash. You can learn a lot from a solution without perfectly imitating it in your actual play
I also uploaded an almost 10-minute-long video walking through my thoughts on the hand in even more detail. Subscriber growth has slowed a little; if this post generates 200 unpaid or 20 paid subscribers, I will post the video for all to see. The subscribe button is right there.
Additional Analysis for Premium Subscribers
Everyday Premium Subscribers get an extra bit of analysis not included on Substack. Today I’ll share #onemorething I posted about POTD #63. I am choosing this one because I recieved some ❤️s in the Discord. I’m a cheap date.
POTD #63 onemorething Everyone talks about the big shoves on JTx, but there are a couple other big shoves that share similar properties on slightly different boards that aren’t talked about. BU vs BB 3bp T92fd gets 16% shove @60bbs and 2% shove at 100bbs. The GTOw agent doesn’t have shove available at 80bbs, but it would be used if it were included in the game tree. The main goal of these plays are to make two overcard plus straight draw hands indifferent when you have a strong one pair hand and want your opponent to fold somewhere between 12-16 outs. On the JTx the bluff shoves are often AK/AQ/KQ, straight draws with two overcards, on T9x what’s key is that you shove bluffs that lower the equity of QJ so they aren’t incentivized to call, but they don’t necessarily need a straight draw themselves. AJ with a flush blocker is a common bluff, because QJ only had 11 outs versus it, if you only shove AT, QJ can comfortably call, if you shove enough AJ/AQ QJ becomes indifferent.
Media
Pokerstars has reached an arrangement with PokerGo, and now many WSOP Streams are no longer paywalled. Stapes and Hartigan were kind enough to have me on. You can watch my $250k NLHE commentary here. There were some technical difficulties and a crying baby, but all’s well that ends well. You can also listen to my $25k PLO commentary where there are fewer technical difficulties, but you need to patiently wait as I figure out everyone’s exact hand strength.
My latest Run It Once video posted and it is getting rave reviews
Sam,
Great video. One of the more informative and interesting videos I have watched recently. Very nice job.
and
Hey Sam great video , you really illustrate your point well, with example and toy game you use . Thanks allot!!!
Finally, the TV show I’m watching this week, which is poker-related in name only. Poker Face, the Rian Johnson/Natasha Lyonne Columbo riff, is in the middle of its second season. Season 1 was funny and well crafted with many excellent guest stars, but I’ve really enjoyed how season 2 has steered into a more broadly comic direction. Many guest stars are sketch or standup comedians, and the show is steering into its goofiest elements while also having rock-solid joke writing. The most recent episode I watched gave a character played by guest star Ego Nwodim a recurring joke about Velveeta cheese, which had me in stitches. Good show.