PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION ONLY POTD #255 FT Friday: I Give Samuel Vousden a SCOOP Watch
He probably has so many he doesn't even know where it is.
Bluffing your stack off in a chip-lead pot is a play that is often considered a punt because it often is a punt. However, if a million solvers played a million poker tournaments, it’s something that would happen from time to time. So if you never torch off a chip lead running an “unnecessary” bluff, you might be playing too tight at final tables. It’s something that should happen occasionally, so bluffing off your chip lead is not always a punt, even if it often feels like it.
Pivoting to a strategy of never running big or complex bluffs for stacks because you don’t want to play a really big pot sounds good, until you have the nuts and realize you won’t get paid. When two chip leaders tangle, they avoid this predicament by playing cautiously early on in the hand to prevent the pot size from bloating out of control. They’re trying to play smaller pots, which means less river bluffing, but it also means less c-betting, less overbetting and less thin value betting.
All these effects are downstream of one another. If either player in the hand is playing tighter preflop, then a CO vs. BB pot minraised pot might start looking like a HJ vs. BB 2.5x preflop pot. If one player is raising a loose chip-leader range preflop and the BB is defending tighter, the range advantage the opener has disappears so you will see less c-betting. If you see less c-betting, you will see less check-raising. You will see check-back ranges get attacked less often. All of which leads to the same conclusion: try to play smaller pots, even if it means sacrificing cEV. You’ll occasionally play for stacks, but it should happen much less often.
In today’s hand, we look back at a SCOOP FT I made in 2021 with a final table full of crushers. We were four-handed with myself, Matthias Eibinger, Mikita Badziakouski, and Samuel Vousden. Even as a big stack, I knew I was playing vs. opponents who’d play back vs. me and that turning my chip lead into a SCOOP watch would not be easy. I could not just start raising any two cards and slowly whittle my opponents down by collecting the blinds. I knew at any given time I needed to be prepared to play a monster pot, but I picked the wrong hand at the wrong time.
SCOOP 2021 Event-8 $5k NLHE. We are 4 handed.
(50k/100k/12.5k) (SB/BB/ANTE) 1st: $177k, 2nd: $135k, 3rd: $103k, 4th: $78k
Samuel “€urop€an” Vousden (5.645M) makes it 220k in the CO, Mikita “fish2013” Badziakouski (1.4M) folds OTB, Matthias “iambest2” Eibinger (2.98M) folds in the SB, I (7.5M) in the BB call with 7♥️7♠️.
Flop (540k) A♣️6♠️4♥️: I check, €urop€ean bets 135k, I call.
Turn (810k) 8♥️: I lead 202.5k, €urop€ean makes it 800k, I make it 1.9M, he calls.
River (4.61M) 9♥️: I put €urop€ean all-in vs. for his final 3.4M when I have 5.2M back, he calls with A♦️6♦️.