POTD #60 Final Table Friday: Two Pair on the Bubble of EPT London £50k SHR

Vs Juan Pardo

Playing poker tournaments is tough, because there is a lot of failure. Take something simple, like cashing two tournaments in a row. I’ve played lots of poker tournaments, so it’s something I’ve done several times. The odds of it happening in a tournament where 1/7th of the field cashes would be about a 1/49 shot. The equivalently improbable non-cashing streak would be not cashing in 25 straight tournaments. There’s a lot of losing. Everyone has their own way of coping with the absurdity of letting their lives be ruled by the turn of a card. Some aim for a zen mindset that allows them to persevere; others empty the hotel minibar, looking for some solace at the bottom of an $11 beer or peanut M&Ms; and some do both.

One of the sillier coping mechanisms that I’ve created, that either helps me or is an intrusive loser thought that harms my overall game, is to imagine being on the other side of the variance curve. One particular sliding-doors thought that I’ve returned to is the idea that most poker players are more likely to win any given tournament than direct bubble it. Every time I bubble, I think of a Sam in the multiverse who just won another trophy. Every time I win a poker tournament, I do not think of poor multiverse Sam bubbling a tournament. I’m too selfish to think of him in the good times; I apologize, multiverse Sam.

EPT London 2022 was a trying time for Milky Way Sam. I did not manage the 1/49 shot of cashing two tournaments in a row, but I did manage the ~1/10,000 shot of bubbling three straight High Rollers. In today’s punt, I got coolered and bubbled the tournament, but could I have avoided it?

7 Left in the EPT London £50k NLHE
6th gets £132,400 GBP, 1st gets £652,700
Staring Stack 250k, Average Stack is 1.36M, (15k/30k/30k) (SB/BB/BBA)

Pokernews Update

Phillip Sternheimer (1.3M) folds, Bruno Volkmann (740k) folds, Ben Heath (660k) folds, Henrik Hecklen (625k) folds, I have 1.475M on the button and raise A♣️6♦️ to 75k, Daniel Dvoress folds off 1.1M and Juan Pardo calls in the BB with 3.6M.

Flop (195k) A♦️K♠️5♠️: Juan Pardo checks, I check

Turn (195k) 7♦️: Juan Pardo bets 250k, I call

River (695k) 6♥️: Juan Pardo bets 1.05M leaving me with 100k if I call, I call and lose when he has 7♣️7♠️