In the pre-solver era, the best poker players had a strong intuitive sense of many solver strategies. Even if you think of basic tactics, like c-betting often versus the BB because you have more strong hands and can represent a strong hand— I did not use the term range in the previous sentence, because it post-dates the strategy of a player with the betting lead continuing to bet— betting after raising preflop was something described in Super System in 1978. Today in a matter of minutes, I can pull out my phone and tell you that button vs. BB 50bbs deep, the button is supposed to c-bet 76.7% of the time across all boards. So even though the best poker players in 1978 or 2008 would be fish in the modern game, they still had a strong intuition about what to do and their overall strategy was pointed in the right direction. However, as the games have gotten tougher, being pointed in the right direction is not enough.
Many of the punts I write about are hands where I am pointed in the right direction, my instincts are sensible, and the broad strokes of my approach are adequate, but upon closer inspection, I am wrong. It’s like I am shooting at a target: I miss entirely, but at least I am facing the target. I’ve had students ask me about a hand and I’ve chimed in before looking at a solution. I provide them with a paragraph or two of cogent, thoughtful poker analysis. Then I look at the answer and I missed the mark— the mechanics I described don’t apply in this specific situation. There is a big difference between feeling like you know how a hand is supposed to play out and knowing how it is supposed to play out. Many of my biggest punts are hands where every bit of logic that I am thinking about as I play the hand seems right but is not.
Telling a good story about why you should play a hand a certain way is a skill even the worst poker players possess; actually making the correct decisions is hard to do. In today’s hand, I told myself a simple story about a hand and followed two black and white rules I had which led me to play a hand a certain way. Both were wrong.
Triton Monte-Carlo 2023 - Event #1 $200K NLH Triton Invitational
(6k/12k/12k) (SB/BB/BBA) 300k Starting Stack. Registration is Closed. 30 left 13 cash.
I (384k/32bbs) raise UTG7 to 25k with 5♠️5♣️, it folds to Orpen Kisacikoglu (818k/68bbs) who calls, Timothy Busso (408k/34bbs) folds in the BB.
Flop (74k) K♠️9♥️9♦️: Orpen checks, I check.
Turn (74k) 3♠️: Orpen bets 74k, I call.
River (222k) 3♥️: Orpen checks, I check and beat his J♠️8♠️.
