You say that Jumalon only wants to continue trips and bluffs, but (exploitatively) does Jumalon even want to play A2-A6 like this? If he xr A6 big and FBT calls, how do you think he's feeling about his hand? Is he even excited if FBT calls and he has A8-AT? And then he just can't have any AJ-AK. I think FBT might even fold a lot of the offsuit low aces pre, and FBT obviously has all the premium aces that Juma does not.
And how does he feel with those hands if Han calls? Obviously we now know Han has some preflop traps like TT-AA, which means he can probably also have some preflop traps with like exactly AKs and AQs. I suspect Juma knows he has lots of traps which is why he flatted the 77, although your point about possibly mishearing Greg's stack is also possible.
I agree that theoretically he should have zero calls, and he's obviously not folding A2, thus he should raise it, but idk. Feels like a pretty gross spot with A2.
We know that when the king rivered and Han checked, Juma turned to his rail and announced "we got coolered" so he clearly thinks Han almost certainly had an ace.
I kind of feel like the only hands he can have for value are 77 and A7.
And then, intuitively, with very little evidence, my read in the moment would've been that Juma is going to jam too wide, but he probably won't 4b bluff light wide enough. Could totally be wrong there.
FBT's tightness, Juma's demonstrated willingness to play aggressively on flops and turns and then give up some rivers, the really big flop xr size make me weight his range more towards bluffs on the flop and turn, I think. And I'd guess he often gives up on the river because once Han calls the turn barrel, Juma is pretty certain he has an ace
I don't really have a strong point of view on anything, just rambling about what I thought was an interesting and unusual hand.
I think the concern is mostly that your hand is extremely face up as a bad ace when you check-call. It's not like the board is K99 flush draw where you can have Kx, 9x, flush draws and straights draws. This board is so dry that you really are just continuing trips or bluffs and building out a separate "bad trips" range is not great. You can just check the turn with those bad trips combos, it's nice to have some trips when you checkraise the flop and check the turn since it allows you to bluff the river more often when it goes check-check.
This is also why I (and the solver) like check-raising small and exploitatively you can even get greedy and checkraise to 10k with A2 and 18k with AJ and I doubt anyone would notice.
Another thing here is Greg is c-betting so wide that trips is just a very good range vs range hand. If Greg folds a hand like Kh7h or 66 or 88 to a x/r then our bluffs are doing extremely well. If he's not that's probably the best way to squeeze some value of hands that will almost always check the turn unimproved if we overcall the flop. There is a problem here that you identified, which is to this flop action we probably have 80+% equity three ways with A2, but once we x/r and get called by one of the players it might drop into the 50s and now the pot is bigger, but I just think raising small with range is the best way to get some value out of worse hands and have a range that isn't so faceup.
You say that Jumalon only wants to continue trips and bluffs, but (exploitatively) does Jumalon even want to play A2-A6 like this? If he xr A6 big and FBT calls, how do you think he's feeling about his hand? Is he even excited if FBT calls and he has A8-AT? And then he just can't have any AJ-AK. I think FBT might even fold a lot of the offsuit low aces pre, and FBT obviously has all the premium aces that Juma does not.
And how does he feel with those hands if Han calls? Obviously we now know Han has some preflop traps like TT-AA, which means he can probably also have some preflop traps with like exactly AKs and AQs. I suspect Juma knows he has lots of traps which is why he flatted the 77, although your point about possibly mishearing Greg's stack is also possible.
I agree that theoretically he should have zero calls, and he's obviously not folding A2, thus he should raise it, but idk. Feels like a pretty gross spot with A2.
We know that when the king rivered and Han checked, Juma turned to his rail and announced "we got coolered" so he clearly thinks Han almost certainly had an ace.
I kind of feel like the only hands he can have for value are 77 and A7.
And then, intuitively, with very little evidence, my read in the moment would've been that Juma is going to jam too wide, but he probably won't 4b bluff light wide enough. Could totally be wrong there.
FBT's tightness, Juma's demonstrated willingness to play aggressively on flops and turns and then give up some rivers, the really big flop xr size make me weight his range more towards bluffs on the flop and turn, I think. And I'd guess he often gives up on the river because once Han calls the turn barrel, Juma is pretty certain he has an ace
I don't really have a strong point of view on anything, just rambling about what I thought was an interesting and unusual hand.
I think the concern is mostly that your hand is extremely face up as a bad ace when you check-call. It's not like the board is K99 flush draw where you can have Kx, 9x, flush draws and straights draws. This board is so dry that you really are just continuing trips or bluffs and building out a separate "bad trips" range is not great. You can just check the turn with those bad trips combos, it's nice to have some trips when you checkraise the flop and check the turn since it allows you to bluff the river more often when it goes check-check.
This is also why I (and the solver) like check-raising small and exploitatively you can even get greedy and checkraise to 10k with A2 and 18k with AJ and I doubt anyone would notice.
Another thing here is Greg is c-betting so wide that trips is just a very good range vs range hand. If Greg folds a hand like Kh7h or 66 or 88 to a x/r then our bluffs are doing extremely well. If he's not that's probably the best way to squeeze some value of hands that will almost always check the turn unimproved if we overcall the flop. There is a problem here that you identified, which is to this flop action we probably have 80+% equity three ways with A2, but once we x/r and get called by one of the players it might drop into the 50s and now the pot is bigger, but I just think raising small with range is the best way to get some value out of worse hands and have a range that isn't so faceup.