POTD #307 Malcolm Trayner Hero Calls Lucas Jumalon In The Biggest Pot of the WSOPME
Did he punt? (Photo: PokerNews)
I am getting to the age where I don’t know some of the up-and-comers in the poker world. I did not know that 26-year-old Australian Malcolm Trayner cashed for $1,000,000 (plus bounties) in the 1k Mystery Millions in 2024 and cashed for basically $1,000,000 USD in the Aussie Millions Main Event in May of this year. He was chip leader of the Main Event on Day 8 and was a heavy favourite to secure the third seven-figure score in his young career, and then things went off the rails. As is often the case when someone squanders a chip lead, there is a little bit of bad luck and a little bit of punting. Today we’re going to focus on the biggest pot he lost and the biggest pot of the Main Event thus far, a hero call gone wrong. We will not be focusing on the parade of consecutive all-ins he unfortunately lost after this hand.
Malcolm gained his chip lead in part by making a daring and creative bluff, which you can watch with English and French commentary. That hand was fun to watch, but not all that interesting in my opinion. Jumalon’s strongest river value raise is 99, 9d8d blocks 99, Malcolm went for it. I bet if I ran a sim it would spit out an output that says Malcolm can three-bet the river whenever he has 9x— not all of the time, but some of the time with every nine. He’d bluff with a frequency such that Jumalon is indifferent to call with any flush, including the nut flush. Jumalon would mix every time he has a flush, and in game Jumalon folded after (presumably) deciding that Trayner wasn’t bluffing.
Which brings us to the biggest hand of the Main Event thus far, a hand where Trayner decided Jumalon was bluffing.
2026 World Series of Poker Main Event
(500k/1M/1M) (SB/BB/BBA) 13 Remain. Average is ~42.5M.
It folds to Jumalon (67.1M) on the button who makes it 2M with J♠️J♥️, it folds to Trayner (83M) in the BB who makes it 9M with Q♥️Q♦️, Jumalon calls.
Flop (19.5M) A♥️J♦️4♣️: Trayner bets 4M, Jumalon calls.
Turn (27.5M) 8♠️: Trayner checks, Jumalon bets 8.5M, Trayner calls.
River (44.5M) 4♥️: Trayner checks, Jumalon bets 35M of his remaining 45.6M, Trayner calls and loses.
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What I Thought When I First Watched the Hand
At first I was unsure if Trayner could three-bet/stack off QQ here. It feels right on the borderline; however, Jumalon has four -bet shoved K4s button vs. SB and ATo SB vs. BB. If this play is close vs. a solver, I think going for it is fine vs. Jumalon, especially because Trayner covers Jumalon by enough that he will still have 16bbs and a dream if they get all-in and he loses. The Main Event is a famously top-heavy tournament (and that’s ignoring any potential added future money up top for winning the highest profile tournament of the year). I think three-betting JJ here would be dicey, but QQ is fine. Sometimes in these “nuts or air” preflop spots, the solver prefers picking a really big three-bet size and might three-bet to a size as large as 15bbs here, but I think given the way most people play, 9bbs is a totally acceptable three-bet size.
Trayner’s three-betting range should have a lot of Ax in it, and Jumalon’s four-betting range should have a lot of Ax in it. This means that Trayner should have a lot more top pair than Jumalon, and he still covers him. I don’t know if this flop is necessarily an auto c-bet, but he should c-bet quite a bit, and QQ seems like a hand that never wants to bet big. A small c-bet size is fine.
There’s no reason for Trayner to bet the turn. He can’t get top pair to fold. I am sure a small bet is occasionally called by gutshots and Jx, but occasionally getting called by worse is not a good enough reason to bet. Once he checks, it feels like QQ-KK should be a lot of his turn checking range, and Jumalon should probably play a turn strategy that is built around making those hands indifferent to calling a turn bet (I doubt he can ever get top pair to fold). If Jumalon bet a little on the larger side, let’s say something closer to half pot or 2/3rds pot, I’d comfortably fold QQ or KK, but facing this size I think he needs to peel, but it’s not making much. I think folding to exploit a specific opponent you think might be underbluffing is totally fine here and probably best.
On the river, there is no reason to lead, and once Trayner checks I think he has a very easy fold facing this big bet. If I had to guess, I’d think the most common bluffs from Jumalon’s actual range are KQ, QT, KT, and having two queens in our hand makes calling very bad. Additionally, his most likely value bets are probably AA, JJ and AJ. Having any ace in your hand or any jack in your hand should be much better for potentially bluff-catching here. The way most people play preflop here, a huge chunk of the BB’s three-bet bluffing range here will have Ax in it. So it’s not even like Trayner should be concerned he needs to call QQ on the river or risk getting overbluffed.
So much money has gone into the pot that bad Ax should be indifferent to calling this chunky river bet. If you can fold Ax here, you certainly need to fold QQ. I am sure Trayner had a read or a reason for calling this bet, and Jumalon has been playing with a youthful indiscretion, such that I don’t think he’s someone who is systematically underbluffing in a chip lead pot in the Main Event, but QQ is not the hand to call him with. Just fold.
What I Got Wrong (What The Solver Says)
I underestimated how varied the offsuit trash that the solver three-bets from the BB is here. The solver three-bets hands like A2o and K4o, but also hands like 96o, 85o, 53s. QQ is the bottom of the BB’s value range and mostly three-bets. However, the BB has enough junk that it creates a situation where the BB has a massive range disadvantage on the flop. They have 42% range vs. range equity and check the flop 70% of the time with range. When the BB bets, they tend to favour a big polar size of 60% pot centered around AK. There is still a little bit of small betting, mostly centered around AA. KK-QQ c-bet small occasionally, but they mostly check. KK and QQ pure check the turn, and the preferred turn size for Jumalon is half pot. Half pot makes QQ indifferent to continue; 30% pot also makes QQ indifferent to continue, but it mostly calls vs. the smaller bet. On the 4 river, Jumalon can value bet AQ and better. Jumalon’s actual size is the solver’s ideal bet size as well— it leaves him with some chips left over in case he gets caught bluffing. KK pure folds on the river for Trayner and QQ rarely calls, but it’s a breakeven to do so. There is no real preference for which suits QQ would rather call with. The reason he occasionally calls QQ is because QQ blocks AQ. QJ, which blocks AQ/AJ and JJ, is an almost pure river call when Trayner has it.
So one way to view this hand is Trayner had a common preflop three-bet vs. an opponent capable of playing back at him and found it. Trayner had a hand the solver c-bets rarely, but when it does it picks this size, he had a hand that the solver mostly check-calls on the turn and occasionally check-calls on the river. Trayner didn’t make a single decision that loses significant EV vs. the solver and he did okay. I think the problem here is the way the solver plays this hand is nothing like the way most humans would. I’d be shocked if Jumalon called a three-bet with T8s here, floated the flop with a backdoor, and bluffed the turn and river. In this sim, KK folds the river and QQ mixes because AQ is a common value bet for Jumalon; in reality, I think it’s much more likely you’d see AK from Jumalon than AQ. I don’t think fixating on mastering the exact solver blocker mechanics here is very useful for the real-world hand in front of us. I think the more important factor is thinking about how often Jumalon is bluffing in general and if we have any live reads or sizing reads that might tell us he’s bluffing right now. I think he’s too tight preflop and too tight on the flop to be overbluffing on the river and if I were Traynor I’d stick to calling when I had an ace. If you really wanted to be a hero, you could call with some specific Jx.
Final Thoughts and Grade
One thing that surprised me about this hand is the solution was much closer to a cEV solution than I expected. It’s still tighter. If I ever failed to three-bet JJ from the BB vs. a button raise 70bbs deep in a cash game, I can retire from poker right then and there. However, Jumalon still calls the three-bet rather loose— he rarely folds a pair or a suited ace. He mixes calls with suited connectors, medium suited kings, and suited one- and two-gappers like Q9s.
Both Trayner and I had the wrong flop strategy: The correct strategy involves a lot more checking and a lot more big polar betting, which is similar to the cEV strategy in this spot. While they are two chip leaders in the Main Event, neither is above 2x average, and the payouts are top heavy. It makes sense you’d see a strategy that resembles what you’d see in a cash game.
The turn seems to be the easiest street to play. Trayner could fold and probably should fold if he doesn’t expect to see pocket fives or 65s in Jumalon’s range, and Jumalon should probably bet a little bigger, but betting too small is a problem everyone in this year’s Main Event seemed to have.
On the river, QQ is a mixed call against a very aggressive solver who is playing for play money on my laptop. QQ is also good around 38% of the time. In real life, I doubt that is the case. When I say that Trayner should fold, I am not suggesting Trayner “wait for a better spot,” but that this spot is bad. The remaining field is full of competent poker players who, if anything, lean towards being too tight when the money gets really big. If he could find a spot that would give him ~25% of the chips in play with 13 people left and still leave him some chips if he’s wrong, he should absolutely go for it. I just don’t think he’s seeing a bluff here often enough from basically anyone. This hand is not as punty as I thought it was at first glance, but I do think it features a couple of pretty clear mistakes, including the biggest decision in the hand, calling a 35M chip bet with second pair.
77/100