POTD #306 Monte Carlo Monday: 6BBs for Post #306
I try to get cute and end up doing something I regret.
There is a lot of value in tournaments in keeping “a chip and a chair,” and players have started developing increasingly complex and risky strategies to keep their one chip. Some of these plays are relatively costless: If you shove the river sometimes for value and sometimes as a bluff and leave one chip behind, you’re just missing out on a tiny amount of extra value when you have a value bet and bluff an imperceptible amount less often, and in exchange you give yourself a lottery ticket when you’re bluffing. Some of these plays, like half-stacking preflop, can be very costly; you’re sacrificing a lot of cEV by putting in 5 of your 7bbs preflop and folding to several all-ins behind you to get a pay jump.
The more I’ve investigated and toyed around with these plays, the more I’ve concluded they’re usually not worth it. The best-case scenario is one of these plays might let you make a tiny amount of EV, but in a world where people are giving up EV by simplifying their c-betting strategies, it feels weird that this is the area where people still feel obligated to squeeze out an extra 1%. One reason I’ve concluded these plays are usually not worth it is because I’ve gotten myself into enough situations where I don’t know what the fuck I should be doing. I am a very good poker player; I believe on average most decisions I make are correct decisions that make me money and that I should generally try to expand the game tree such that I have more opportunities to make good decisions. However, when one specific type of decision consistently gets me in spots where I am hoping and praying that I am not about to make the biggest blunder of the day, I’ve realized it’s simply not worth it. In today’s hand, I started the hand with 5.75bbs and somehow gave myself two extra decisions, which ended up just being two opportunities for me to punt.
€25,000 No Limit Hold’em (Event 48)
(4k/8k/8k) (SB/BB/BBA)
It folds to Juan Pardo (225k/28bbs) who makes it 20k, the SB (225k/28bbs) folds, I (38k after posting the BB) have Q♥️J♣️ and call.
Flop (52k): K♣️6♣️4♦️ I check, Juan bets 8k, I call.
Turn (68k) 8♠️: I check, Juan puts me in for my last 18k, I fold.
