POTD #305 Almost FT Friday: AJ Week Ends With Me Flopping Top Pair in the London Main Event
I try to end a hand vs Stephen Chidwick on the flop and he ends it on the turn.
A general rule of thumb is that, when your opponent is aggressive with a linear range you play back with a linear range, and when your opponent is aggressive with a polar range you play back with a polar range. If the bottom of someone’s three-bet bluff range is A9o, you might want to four-bet shove A5s. If the bottom of their three-betting range is AQ or 88, you might want to wait for something a little stronger. Preflop, these concepts are relatively easy to internalize and execute, but they can be trickier to execute postflop.
I remember getting in, and losing, an argument with my brother over a decade ago. I was arguing that, on a JhTh7h flop, 3h2h was a better hand than 77. It’s simple, a flush is better than three of a kind. He was correct, as was his reasoning that even though a flush has a higher hand rank, it has no way to improve to a better hand and has less equity than 77 vs. most hands that will get all-in on the flop. If you wanted to check-raise a linear range on a JT7 monotone flop, you’d rather raise a set than a small flush because it’s a higher-EV hand. There are many such spots where hand rank and hand value are not the same; on the board we’re discussing you’d rather have Tc8h than QcJc even though QJ has a higher rank right now.
So when you’re playing postflop and face aggression, you need to ask yourself: Am I facing a range that is linear or polar? Should I play back with a linear or polar range? And what type of linear/polar hands do I want to play back with? One of the simplest mechanics I’ve learned in these spots is that you fastplay your strongest top-pair hand. If you have top pair vs. top pair, you want to get money in the pot as quickly as possible, and fastplaying your strongest top-pair hands can get max value while protecting a vulnerable hand. Today we will be looking at a hand deep in the Triton London Main Event where I applied this heuristic and fastplayed top pair top kicker, but it wasn’t until after the hand ended that I realized that while I had TPTK, I did not have my highest-EV top pair hand and perhaps I should have played it more cautiously.
Triton London 2019 £100K NLH Main Event
(50k/100k/100k) (SB/BB/BBA) 11/130. We are ITM. 250k Starting Stack.
It folds to me (5M) in the HJ with A♠️J♦️, I make it 200k, it folds to Stephen Chidwick (1.9M) who calls.
Flop (550k) J♥️9♣️8♥️: Stevie checks I bet 125k, Stevie makes it 425k, I shove for his 1.795M total, he calls with J♠️T♠️.
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What I Was Thinking
I was riding high as one of the chip leaders as we were approaching the FT. I figured I’d get to open a fairly loose range here with mostly short and medium stacks behind. It’s always good to be aware of the fringes of your opening range. This seemed like a spot where I could open as wide as A2o, so obviously AJo is an easy open. Stevie defended the BB, and while this flop felt good for his BB peeling range, I reminded myself that these high-to-middling boards are often rather good for the preflop raiser, because I’ll have a lot of sets, two pair, straights, strong top pair, strong draws and overpairs myself. AJ with no backup seemed like the perfect hand to c-bet, so I c-bet it. Stevie check-raised, and I was not thrilled with my options. Even his lowest-EV bluffs have some equity— a hand like, say, Qc7c still has 7 outs vs. my hand— and I don’t want to let them see a turn. On the other hand, much of his flop check/raise calling range is two pair and straights and has me in very bad shape. I weighed my options, remembered that your strongest top-pair hands often play aggressively vs. a check-raise, and thought I could deny enough equity from Stevie that shoving to try to end the hand right away was the best play. I shoved, was called by JT, and unfortunately, Stevie turned a straight vs. me.
What I Got Wrong
I raise AJ preflop and I pure c-bet my range and my hand on the flop. I don’t mix any big sizes and just pick a small size like mine. When Stevie check-raises the flop he almost always has two pair, a straight or a set for value. The only hand worse than AJ that he check-raises for value is QJ. His check-raise bluffs are unpaired Qx and Tx, some flush draws, and some pocket twos and pocket threes with a heart. You would think that would mean that I never shove AJ. What’s the point? To get called drawing close to dead? And yet, AJ still shoves the flop around half the time, getting hands like KQ and KT to fold, and winning the pot around half the time is worth quite a bit, especially when I occasionally get called by hands like QJ, KhQh and AhTh.
So the solver is 50/50 to shove the flop, and I’m playing one of the best players in the world. I should be roughly indifferent, except Stevie did check-raise/call JT— a hand the solver never check-raise/calls— and a hand that I probably stack on a blank turn anyways. AJ is a good hand to shove because it’s often best and I can deny equity from Stevie’s bluffs. That makes it a pretty good hand to shove vs. a polar check-raise range, but a less good hand to shove vs. a linear check-raising range, when there are so many action-killing turns for my hand. This equilibrium is so sensitive, and KT and KQ are such large parts of Stevie’s check-raise bluffing range, that KJ mixes folds to a flop check-raise and AJ mixes shoving. With the benefit of hindsight, I know that Stevie is check-raise/calling for value wider than the solver, and since most of the EV of my play comes from getting Stevie to fold to a flop shove half the time, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that he’s folding less than that, and even though I have better equity when called, I should still just call and wait for a safe turn before getting all-in.
Types of Error
Tried to end the hand too early.
Grade
The actual output of this hand didn’t really resemble how Stevie or I were playing at the time f the actual hand. I don’t think Stevie is folding T7s or QTo preflop here, and I’ve already noted that the BB doesn’t check-raise/call with JT. This is fine; the PIO ICM output is a starting point, not a flawless solution, even if Stevie and I are both roughly trying to play in a way that the solver would play. The solver is indifferent between calling and shoving my hand versus itself, but I should not be vs Stevie. I was one of the chip leaders in a big tournament, and instead of risking 1/3rd of my stack getting all-in, I think I would have been better off waiting for a safe turn. My play is acceptable, but it is not the best, and given that Stevie was check-raising a different range than I expected, I think just calling the flop was the best play.
C+