POTD #29 Three of a Kind in a Three Way Pot: Will I Three Bullet?

A hand in EPT Cyprus vs Joao Viera

If you’ve played enough poker, you know not just what it’s like to tilt, but all the different flavours of tilt. “I just got bad beat” tilt, “this guy next me won’t shut up” tilt, “a short stack just doubled again” tilt, etc. Occasionally an experienced player will recognize they’re feeling of one type of tilt, overcorrect, and find a whole other different type of tilt. During EPT Monte Carlo in 2022, I busted the Main Event and late registered a 25k single day. I immediately busted two bullets and went to register a third. Adrian Mateos raised the CO and I had KQo in the BB and 25bbs. Registration closed in ten minutes. I did not want to three-bullet and every fiber of my being was telling me to just call. I recognized these scared emotions were the product of tilt and asked myself “What’s the best play here?” and I shoved. I got called by a pocket pair, lost a flip and entered the tournament for a fourth time. Shoving KQo here is a solver approved play, but it’s chosen less frequently than calling. I was scared, recognized that fear, overcorrected, and put too much money in the pot.

In today’s hand we return to Cyprus. I busted the 50k SHR in level 1 in a cooler. I took some time to cool off and as I prepared for bullet 2, told myself I was going to play my best poker. Then I flopped a set and a scary turn rolled off. As I was playing the hand, I convinced myself I was playing how I’d normally play. I wasn’t going to let busting one bullet change my strategy. Every poker player knows the feeling of seeing monsters under the bed when they’re running bad, if you’re feeling that way it’s important to correct it, but calibration is important. Looking back on today’s hand I can see that I was not playing my best. I was so concerned that deep down, I was afraid of three bulleting this tournament that I made it much more likely I’d walk to the registration desk.

EPT Cyprus Event #19 $50k High Roller

Level 5 1k/2.5k/2.5k (SB/BB/BBA), 250k Starting Stack

Pokernews Live Update

It folds to Juan Pardo in the HJ, he makes it 6k, I call 5♥️5♠️ in the SB, Joao calls in the BB.

Flop (20.5k): J♠️5♣️3♠️ I check, Joao checks, Juan Pardo checks.

Turn (20.5k): 4♥️ I bet 6k, Joao raises to 21k, Juan Pardo folds, I make it 51k, he makes it 120k, I jam 250k total, he calls with 6♦️7♥️, the river is a 6♣️ and I lose.

What I Was Thinking

On the flop, I considered leading, but I thought I only got leads on boards where hands in my range flopped open enders or two pair. On J53, that’s not the case and I thought I needed a board like J54. On the turn, with a 543 on board, I knew this was a good board for the BB so I couldn't bet big, but I thought I could split off a blocking-bet range and sets would have to be included in my blocking range. Once Joao raised me, I was worried about straights, but I thought I was pushing a lot of equity vs. draws, lower sets and two pair, so I could reraise. Once Joao four-bet non-all in, I thought most of his bluffs would be high-equity bluffs, and getting them to call or fold would be better than calling and playing half-pot effective stacks on the river.

What I Got Wrong

I do get leads on the flop, and 55 is one of my highest frequency leads, but checking is fine. In POTD #21, I wrote about a hand I played in November 2024 regarding the turn strategy in a button vs. SB vs BB three way pot on a 766T board with a flush draw:

In a heads-up pot, people understand you should play cautiously as the preflop raiser vs. the BB on a board like 766. Well, on the turn, we’re out of position vs. a BB range that is basically the same as their preflop defense range on a board that has 766 on it. You still must tread cautiously.

Guess what hand in my past drilled this mechanic into me? Today’s POTD. 766T flush draw and J543 don’t have that much in common, but they’re both boards where the BB has a lot of really good hands and the SB and PFR do not. Betting is fine and doesn’t lose EV, but my overall range strategy is heavy on checking.

Facing a raise, I still have a very good hand with a lot of equity. The problem is we are deep. Each additional bet put in the pot will be larger, and as more money goes into the pot, my equity will decrease. I have 75% equity facing a turn raise, but only 49% equity facing a turn four-bet. There’s a lot of value to be had putting in 8 BBs with 75% equity; there is none putting in 100 BBs with less than 50%. Another minor note here is, vs. a 2.4x, Joao is mostly supposed to fold A2o pre; if he defends A2o, that’s 12 more straight combos he could have, which makes reraising the turn even worse.

When I just call his initial turn raise, I can get away from my hand on scary rivers, or induce bluffs, or lose less money vs. turned straights. Once I three-bet, I think just calling the four-bet is for the best, but shoving is okay; however, I could have intuited that having the 5s makes less inclined to go all-in. Some of the four-bet bluffs Joao needs to reluctantly call off could be 5x with a flush draw. By just calling the turn, I’d allow myself to potentially check/fold some scary rivers, like, to pick an example at random, the 6c.

Types of Errors

Grade

In today’s hand, instead of being present and playing the hand to the best of my abilities, I was focused on thinking “What would someone who hadn’t busted their first bullet already do?” It’s a bad mindset to be in and caused me to play the hand poorly. However, the hand is loosely solver-approved, and getting in a bunch of money with a set when your opponent never has a higher set can never be too bad a play.

B-