POTD #285 Monte Carlo Monday: Chris Brewer Picks a Preflop Size I am Not Prepared For
and I need to navigate a tricky postflop spot
One of the trickier adjustments most people need to make in lower-stakes games is adjusting to odd preflop sizings. The CO raises and you have T7s on the button— any of call, fold or raise are reasonable plays. Did the CO minraise? Did they 3x? If it’s the former, you probably need to call; if it’s the latter, you can fold. The problem is, many of your opponents who pick alternative preflop sizes aren’t doing it strategically. They aren’t specifically raising a 3x range that will be a little tighter than a minraising range, they’re just picking a size and going with it. You still need to play tighter because you’re getting worse pot odds, but this is more of an exploitative adjustment to someone opening too large than a theoretical counter to a larger size.
It’s hard enough playing tournaments to know what your preflop ranges should be 50bbs deep, 40bbs, 30bbs deep, etc. It’s even harder when you need to know 50bbs when the SB and BB have 10 bbs each, 50bbs as a chip leader nearing the bubble, 50bbs as second in chips at a final table with the chip leader still to act behind you… and then you also need to count for alternative sizing. Memorizing preflop charts will help, but if someone picks an unusual size, you will need to bolster your memory with your problem-solving skills. “Am I getting the odds to call this size?” and “What does this size mean?” are questions you must answer. Unusual preflop open sizes are uncommon in the games I play, but you still see a wide variety of three-bet and four-bet sizings. In today’s hand, I faced a very large three-bet size, one I was not prepared for, and I was unsure how to respond. It turns out that I found the right preflop play, but failed to find the right postflop one.
Triton Monte-Carlo 2024 $125K NLH MAIN EVENT
(500/1k/1k) (SB/BB/BBA) 250k Starting Stack. Registration is still open.
I (255.5K) make it 2.5k UTG7 with 6♥️5♥️, it folds to Chris Brewer (283k) who makes it 20k from the SB, I call.
Flop (42k) K♦️8♠️5♠️: Chris bets 10k, I make it 35k, Chris calls.
Turn (112k) Q♥️: Chris checks, I check.
River (112k) 8♦️: Chris bets 27k, I fold.
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What I Was Thinking
You raise 65s deep stacked, even from early position. I was surprised that Chris three-bet to such a large size. His size is more of a BB three-bet size when he has a more polar range, but a SB three-bet range is generally pretty linear and tends to size smaller, even though you need to play out of position. The three-bet size was too big, but today’s entry is not about Chris Brewer’s mistakes. I was confronted with an unusual size and thought I could fold a lot of suited connectors, but thought 65s was too strong because it can pip A5s on 234 boards and it can pip a variety of Ax hands on 2345 boards. So even though 65s has worse high card value, it makes higher-EV straights than 87s and certainly 98s, so I thought I could call.
On the flop I wasn’t sure if Chris should c-bet range, but my heuristic is, if the flatter always four-bets AK and the the three-bettor always three-bets AK, then the three-bettor should always c-bet dry king-high flops. In this hand, I figured I’d have plenty of AK and Chris might not have all that much, so I thought he’d mix some flop checks. I have a set blocker (not that I expect him to three-bet 55 very often), but I figured a flop raise could get QQ-99 to fold right away, and if not, I’d still have five outs to improve.
The turn doesn’t seem great for me. Chris can have KQs, QsQx, and he can also have hands like A5s that I am now blocking that would check-fold to a bet. I decided to give up my operation. When Chris blocked the river, I was tempted to call— I beat all his draws that missed— but ultimately decided that if 76s is a high-frequency bluff from Chris, having a 6 in my hand made calling very unappealing, so after my frisky flop play, I decided to give him the pot.
What I Got Wrong
Preflop is tricky for me, and I did not realize how big a powerhouse 65s is for me facing this large three-bet size. I mix folds with AKo and 99, but 65s and 54s always call. If I can mix folds with AKo to a three-bet of this size, then my AK advantage decreases, and this board is a pure c-bet for Chris, who has AK or better 25% of the time. Most of his betting volume goes into larger sizes, but this smaller size is used occasionally. No matter what c-bet size he picks, there is a consistent pattern in my response: I almost never raise with range. However, A5, 65 and 54 are part of the sliver of hands that do occasionally mix flop raises. The goal of raising those hands is to fold out higher pairs. I could bet the turn, but that is with the goal of folding out top pair, which I could accomplish, but is no guarantee. On the river, Chris’s common bluffs include 76s and A5s, so it’s hard to call when I lose to some of his bluffs and block the rare bluff I do beat. My fold is mandatory.
Types of Error
Had I been writing POTD when this hand was played, I might have been thinking “well at least I’ll have a hand to write about today” as I was playing it. I was not crazy over my preflop call, my flop raise, my turn check or my river fold. In hindsight, my only real blunder was the flop raise, and even that was not too bad a play. I rarely raise with my range, but this hand is one that gets in there. Still, raising a hand without much of a plan in a spot where my range never raises is a clear mistake. So this hand gets the classic POTD
B-