POTD #273 Main Event Monday: I Get Tripped Up in the WSOPME

I revisit an Day 2 hand vs Christoph Vogelsang (Photo: Poker.org)

In POTD #271, I wrote about two top players battling deep in a main event, when Adrian Mateos ran an “unnecessary bluff” vs. Mustapha Kanit in the Triton One Main Event. In that post I talked about how sometimes in poker games, the best players end up creating a Prisoner’s Dilemma type situation. If player A and player B are here to beat up on fish and avoid each other, and they decide to co-operate and small ball versus each other, then one player might be incentivized to deviate and scoop up all the EV that the co-operator is leaving out there. If you decide, “I’m never going to three-bet bluff the other best player at the table,” then they can adjust by opening wider, never four-bet bluffing and folding pure continues to your three-bets.

What the best and most skilled players can do is adjust their strategies in a way that they are playing smaller pots on average, but not giving up a lot of EV, and not creating obvious counter-strategies for their opponent. In that hand, I wrote about the idea of making an unusual bluff and whether bluffing more was the right adjustment for Adrian to make at the time in that tournament. In today’s hand, I am going to talk about the value side of the spectrum.

I am once again writing about a single raised pot on a paired board around 45bb deep in the WSOP Main Event. Adrian flopped jack high (with a backdoor flush draw!), but I flopped trips (without a backdoor flush draw!). If I wanted to deviate from cEV strategy to increase the chance I stay in the tournament. I’d start by running fewer big bluffs vs. the best player at my table, Christoph Vogelsang, but that also means I should play tighter for value. However, paired boards are tricky, because generally, trips are a good enough hand to stack off to any action at this stack depth. So it’s unclear how I should adjust my check-raising frequency on the flop. Should I just check-raise trips less often, and if so, with what kickers? Do I want to co-operate so much with Christoph that I’m willing to leave a ton of value on the table with a hand that has 87% equity vs. his c-betting range? If he has me beat, I’m probably going to put in almost all of my chips anyways, so that doesn’t seem like the best idea, but it’s a tricky balancing act to navigate. It’s especially hard to figure this out when one of the statements I wrote above, “trips is a good enough hand to stack off to any action at this stack depth,” gets violated by a particularly ugly runout. So let’s hop in the DeLorean and see what I could have done differently.

2017 World Series of Poker Main Event
(1k/2k/300) (SB/BB/ANTE) Start of Day 2.

It folds to Christoph Vogelsang (~100k/50bbs) in the HJ who makes it 4700, it folds to me in the BB who calls with K♥️3♥️ (86k/43bbs).

Flop (13.1k) K♠️K♦️J♣️: I check, Christoph bets 4k, I make it 12k, Christoph calls.
Turn (37.1k) 9♦️: I check, Christoph bets 18k, I call.
River (73.1k) Q♠️: I check, Christoph shoves for my final 56k and I folded.