POTD #269 Almost Final Table Friday: A Simple Preflop Hand

Simple hands still require precision, mine was lacking.

In POTD #261, I wrote about a hand where Kristen Foxen faced an all-in at a FT and was one pip off, folding pocket kings in a spot where folding pocket queens would have been the right play, but KK was too strong to fold. When trying to match this hand with a hand that I’d played, I thought about hands where I made a big fold that was technically right, but actually very wrong, like POTD #56, and wondered if I had something similar kicking around the vault. I could not find anything acceptable, so I looked in another direction: What about a hand where I was off by one pip myself? I remembered a hand from a $50k NLH I cashed in Triton Vietnam that I doubt anyone else, even my opponent in the hand, remembers at all, but it has stuck in my craw for years, because I thought it was a very close decision, and losing this pot was the beginning of the end of my tournament.

Even though I remember this hand, I never ran a sim to see if my call was any good, and I figured there was no better hand to pick for POTD than one that I myself haven’t even analyzed. So let’s see if I was right or wrong, and together we can learn where the line for calling a shove is in this particular hand.

Triton Vietnam 2023 - Event #6 50,000 NLH 8-Handed
12/139 Remain. We are ITM. Average 2.3M (50k/100k/100k) (SB/BB/BBA)

It folds to Viacheslav Buldygin (800k) who shoves from the SB, I (2M) have K♠️3♣️ and call in the BB. I lose to 9♦️8♣️ on A♥️A♦️9♣️4♥️4♦️.