POTD #25 Final Table Friday: Triton Montenegro 2019 NLHE Main Event €110K. Chip Leaders Collide

The splash image says 1M HKD, my records convert it to $127,449 USD

In three weeks, I will be returning to Montenegro for the first time since 2019. I’m excited to return; it’s a beautiful property right on the ocean, and historically, a quick dip before play starts has been lucky for me. It was that 2019 visit when I made the final table of three tournaments, including the Main Event, but like any poker stop, the line between a winning and losing trip is razor thin. In the first tournament, I had a chip lead on the money bubble at a final table with a couple of micro stacks. I reshoved Q9s into Steve O’Dwyer’s QQ and I had to settle for a mincash; Steve won the tournament. In the third tournament, I bubbled when Leon Tsoukernik called my shove in Short Deck with 66 (66 is a really bad hand in Short Deck). I had already busted two bullets in the NLHE Main Event and engaged in my most professional behaviour-- calculating what place I’d need to come in the Main Event to get in the black on the trip-- when I looked down at QJ suited. Danny Tang had raised from middle position, and while I am not the biggest live read guy, I looked at him and thought “I’ve never seen someone look so at peace in my life.” I had 30bbs in the SB and reconsidered: “You’re being crazy, Danny has played a ton of live poker, QJs is always a shove here. Don’t be an idiot.” I shoved and cracked his AA, and the next day I was nearly the chip leader at the nine handed final table.

Over the next three weeks, I will discuss some hands I misplayed at this final table. A sort of virtual sage-burning to cleanse my poker soul before returning to the site where I punted six years ago. I will write about these hands chronologically, beginning with the hand where I lost my chip lead, and ending with the hand where I busted the tournament. In between, I will discuss other hands I played at the final table and in the tournament in the Discord for Premium Subscribers.

HH: My Poker Coaching Replayer

Triton Montenegro 2019 Event #5 - NLHE Main Event €110K/1M HKD
Level 18: 25k/50k/50k (SB/BB/BBA) 9 Handed Final Table
Mikita starts the hand with 2.8M, I have 2.7M, average is 2.08M

It folds to Mikita UTG7 and he raises to 110k, I call on the button with K♦️6♦️, the blinds fold

Flop (345k) J♠️4♠️3♦️: Mikita bets 110k, I call

Turn (565k) K♣️: Mikita bets 300k, I call

River (1.165k) 2♦️: Mikita checks, I bet 1M, he calls with K♠️Q♦️

What I Was Thinking

I thought Mikita would be opening wide as the chip leader, but playing tight and co-operatively postflop; I also thought that I would be flatting as strong as QQ, which would allow me to make some more speculative flats on the button. On the flop, I thought king high, a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor straight draw was enough to continue vs. a small bet. On the turn, I had top pair, wasn’t interested in raising or folding, and never considered another option. On the river, I believed that Mikita would always or almost always bet the river with a better hand than mine, so I thought I had a ton of pot equity and that I could make a large river bet. I bet one million chips and was dreaming of having at least 3 million and maybe 4 million chips, but I got Mikita-Rolled¹ when he called with KQ after 30 seconds in the tank.

What I Got Wrong

A fun thing about this hand: UTG7 (Mikita), the LJ (Matthias Eibinger), and the CO (Bryn Kenney) all had similar stack sizes, so when I ran an HRC sim for this hand, I looked to see if I can play K6s vs any of their raises. I can three-bet it vs Bryn’s CO open, but it’s a pure fold vs. Mikita and Matthias. It appears that the solver needs K9 suited to flat, but often three-bets K8 suited. That being said, the metagame of high rollers at the time involved some very loose preflop play from chip leaders. It’s possible that if 2019 Mikita was opening a lot of small pairs, suited connectors, offsuit aces, and suited kings, then flatting K6s could be a fine play, especially since he’d almost certainly play looser vs. a three-bet than the solver.

The flop peel is good. I mix continues on the flop with KT and K9 with a backdoor, but K6 suited has some special powers they don’t. I have so little 6x in my preflop range that if I backdoor a straight, my hand will be really under-represented, especially on the 5/2 runout where I can get in a lot of money vs. wheels. K6 is a good bluffing hand on turns like A, Q, J, T that hit my other floats. The flop call isn’t making much, but is fine. On the turn, I didn’t consider any options and I shouldn’t have.

I should have considered other options on the river. I am in a spot in the tournament where I don’t want to value bet thin. I don’t have many bluffs, and I risk losing my table position if I’m called by a better hand. Also, he doesn’t have many credible river check/calls; my preflop range is tight enough that he can’t check/call the river with ace high, so he needs to have a low pair like A4-A2, a hand like Jx, or a mid pocket pair that bets on the flop and turn– he rarely has those hands. The main reason why value betting my hand doesn’t lose that much EV is because, in solver land, my range is supposed to be tight enough that I generate folds from hands like KQ. So not only was my river strategy a fundamental and exploitative disaster, the Mikita-Roll was totally justified; he had a neutral-EV bluff catcher and tanked before calling. If he knew my river strategy, he should have snap-called in the way you snap-call with the Ah in a $2/$5 game when someone goes all-in on 7h 9h Th Jh: If they have a straight flush, it’s just bad luck. This was not “just bad luck” for Mikita, who got a nice gift from me. Stay tuned to see if it’s the only one I give him at this FT (it isn’t).

Types of Error

Too Much Money
ICM is for rich people because they cash tournaments

A lot of the biggest punts in poker come from confidently making an assumption and proceeding without asking “But what if I’m wrong?” My preflop, flop, and turn plays in this hand are all on the edge, but fine. My river play is the real costly one. I started with a ridiculous assumption-- what if one of the best poker players in the world never checked the river strong?-- and compounded that by not asking “If he never has a strong hand, what’s the best way to squeeze out some value against a weak bluff-catcher?” and betting a size that’s way too large. This was a poorly played hand and a costly one. D

1. Mikita is a deliberate player. A Mikita-Roll is when you value bet, he tanks for long enough that you believe you 100% have the best hand, and then he calls with a better hand. The all-time Mikita-Roll was at the final table of an APPT High Roller in Macau: I shoved 6 BBs on the button with T8s; he was the chip leader in the BB and said “I’m pretty sure I’m calling, but can I can get a count” before calling with AQo.