POTD #224 Trying to Bluff Cristoph Vogelsang with my "only bluff"
He got so lucky, it's my only only bluff.
My tone tends to be ironic, self-deprecating and sarcastic, but like in poker, there are levels to things and I like being ahead of the curve. I almost opened this blog by mocking a hacky joke and writing “I am fluent in sarcasm”. Which is a line that a certain type of cutting edge ironist may have said in the 1990s, but now is a hacky meme that is printed on t-shirts and was, as of nine years ago, frequently used in online dating profiles. In 2026, bragging about your fluency in sarcasm is level-one [or level-zero -ed] humour. Whether I am writing about poker or parroting common jokes, at POTD I always strive to be on the nth level, where n is greater than one.
This is all to say that sometimes when writing for an audience of international poker players, I need to explain some jokes. The subtitle of today’s blog, “He got so lucky, it’s my only bluff,” is something I have said before, but in today’s title it’s meant as a joke. And there’s nothing funnier than clarifying that you are indeed joking. So while my opponent in this hand, Cristoph Vogelsang, has thick skin and can take it, I do need to clarify he did not “get so lucky” in today’s hand.
I have said “it’s my only bluff” countless times after getting snapped off, and I’ve usually meant it, but if you regularly find yourself saying that, it’s more likely you’re discounting how often you’re bluffing than that you keep getting these rare one of one combos that must bluff. The insistence that I only have one bluff in this rare node, when I might be wildly over-bluffing, is one of the few traits I have in common with Phil Hellmuth.
With that exhaustive preamble out of the way… today’s hand is one where I truly felt I only had one bluffing combo, and I was proud of myself for putting my opponent Cristoph Vogelsang in the blender— you need to be an expert poker player to make Cristoph Vogelsang tank for a long time on the river. However, upon further reflection, my flop play was bad, I had at least two bluffing combos, and it’s also a hand where all Cristoph’s Vogelsang’s calling range blocks my value range. I shoved the river for 41% pot, which means if I had two bluffing combos and 13 value combos, he could call with a hand like his that blocks six full houses. So even if I am only bluffing 2/15 times, it might be far too often. It’s a tricky hand where I could and should have done several different things, but one thing I can say for sure is, this was not my “only bluff.”
2023 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure 50K NLHE
(SB/BB/BBA) (2K/4K/4K) 150k Starting Stack. Registration is Open
It folds to Cristoph Vogelsang (183k) who makes it 9k on the button, I (360k) call in the SB with Q♥️T♦️, Fedor Holz (270k) calls in the BB.
Flop (31k) A♦️K♦️K♥️: I check, Fedor checks, Cristoph bets 8k, I make it 28k, Fedor folds, Cristoph calls.
Turn (87k) T♥️: I bet 60k, Cristoph calls.
River (207k) 9♥️: I shove for his final 86k, he calls with K♠️6♥️.
