POTD #213 Big Stack Bully Barrels on the Bubble

Although technically, my stack is merely average.

Having an average stack on the bubble is always a tricky position. It feels like you can safely fold into the money, but no one is registering tournaments with the goal of min-cashing them, even if any ITM finish is an above-average result. With an average stack, you can’t put a lot of pressure on many of your opponents, and losing one or two pots could put you in real danger of bubbling and coming home with nothing. That being said, if you never bubble a tournament as an average stack, then you’re certainly playing too tight.

The other side of the coin is, in most tournaments if you have a slightly above-average stack and double up, it’s usually enough to make you one of the chip leaders, so being an average stack often puts you at a crossroads of sorts. One pot away from being a chip leader who can accumulate even more chips on the bubble, but one pot away from being out of the tournament. It’s a tough balance to strike, especially when another alternative is just folding into the money. It’s always a tough situation, but more so if you are in an unusual circumstance. Say, you have slightly above-average chips in the tournament, but you are the chip leader of your table. Several players in the tournament have more chips than you, but none of them can play pots with you right now. Every hand you can make your opponents risk their tournament life, but in the process of doing so, you’re risking a huge percentage of your own chips. Getting all-in vs. someone you cover and being left with 3bbs is better than being out of the tournament four off the money, but it’s not all that much better.

In today’s hand, I was the chip leader of the table, but not even close to being the chip leader of the tournament. We were four eliminations away from reaching the money, and I was prepared to get myself out of the murky middle and into a strong chip position on the bubble. I was prepared to two- and three-barrel off with nothing if needed to be. Then I saw the ugliest turn in the deck and had to ask myself, should I keep firing?

Triton Cyprus 2022 - Event #2 $30K NLH 6-Handed
(10k/25k/25k) (SB/BB/BBA) 21 left 17 cash. Average 1.2M

I (1.26M) am UTG6 with Q♥️7♥️ and make it 55k, it folds to Kannapong Thanarattrakul (795k) in the BB who calls.

Flop (145k) A♣️J♦️3♦️: K.T. checks, I bet 90k, K.T. calls.
Turn (315k) J♥️: K.T. checks, I bet 160k, K.T. folds.