POTD #200 A Mystery in a Mystery Bounty

I solve the puzzle, but am unwilling to act on it

The first poker resolution I suggested this week was “play simple poker.” I am going to follow with something similarly vague and with something with just as many exceptions and caveats— trust your instincts. If you are reading this, you are not stupid; you’re subscribing to this newsletter, so you are capable of making at least one smart decision. You may study a lot of poker and consume a lot of poker content, but when the chips are down, you know how people play and how to adjust to their game. There are times when you know you should throw the solver in the garbage and focus on playing poker against the person in front of you. So you should trust your instincts: When something feels off, listen to yourself and adjust accordingly.

However, much like the lesson of playing simple poker, you can take things too far. You should play within some framework; if your entire poker game is instinctual you will be regularly making lopsided gambles. If your opponent bets half pot on the river and you “know he’s never bluffing,” remind yourself that he’s only supposed to be bluffing 25% of the time; you’re usually correct that your opponent has you beat, but trusting your instincts is causing you to make a bad fold given your pot odds. Even when playing experts, I advise experienced players to use your instincts, but again, you want strong fundamentals to double-check your intuition. Is an expert player bullying you by always overbetting, or is overbetting their normal bet size in a given spot? The answer can be both, but if you know it’s the preferred solver bet size, it might colour your perception of whether you’re being “bullied” or playing a normal poker hand.

In today’s hand. I had alarm bells ringing in my head preflop, on the flop, and on the turn, but I decided that my opponent Seth Davies was too strong a player to deviate from what I felt was the solver baseline. In hindsight, I not only failed to trust my instincts, but I talked myself out of the correct solver play.

Triton Cyprus 2023 - Event #3 $30,000 NLH 6-Handed - MYSTERY BOUNTY (15k+15k)
(5k/10k/10k) (SB/BB/BBA) Bounties begin with 39 left. ITM at 23. 62 players left.

I (198k) raise K♦️J♣️ to 20k, LJ Seth Davies (510k) flats next to act, everyone else folds.

Flop (65k) J♥️T♣️4♦️: I check, Seth bets 30k, I call.
Turn (125k) 8♣️: I check, Seth bets 60k, I shove 148k, he calls K♠️K♣️ and I am knocked out.