POTD #191 Monte Carlo Monday: I Give Up

There's an exception to every rule and today I failed to find it.

One of the classic dichotomies in poker is “math player vs. feel player,” a debate that recently has been upgraded to “solver player vs. exploitative player.” Like many dichotomies, this one is false. You need to be a hybrid player who uses principles from quantitative and qualitative camps. There is a third, similar spectrum that helps me think of how people play and learn poker: “Rules-based vs. intuitive players.” Rules-based players learn rules about how hands usually operate and craft their strategies around those rules. Intuitive players rely less on guidelines about how a standard hand should play, but focus on the specifics of the situation and how they feel about the hand as they’re playing it.

Some simple rules that are usually true, but have many exceptions, are “when you raise preflop you c-bet the flop,” “you never bet larger than 33% pot on a paired flop,” or “you rarely four-bet non all-in in position.” If you learn all the right rules, you will usually set yourself to play strong poker, but intuitive players will find exploits you might not. You should probably four-bet small in position with AA if your opponent will call KTo out of position; you should c-bet 100% vs. a guy who will fold and show you AJ on 752 rainbow before saying “I missed.”

But today’s POTD will not be about missing an exploitative reason to deviate from a rule. Today’s POTD will be about misapplying a rule. Every rule one learns studying solvers has an exception: Don’t bet big on paired boards? What about when you defend the BB and have a big polar lead size? What about in a three-bet pot where you frequently bet half pot or larger? Simple rules are, well… simple. They are guidelines that apply in most situations. Today I took a simple rule— you rarely bluff on the river with a missed flush draw— and did not recognize there are some specific situations where not only can you bluff with missed flush draws, but it’s mandatory that you do.

Triton Monte-Carlo 2024 $25K NLH WPT Global Ultimate Slam Event #1
(2k/4k/4k) (SB/BB/BBA) 250k Starting Stack. Registration is Open. 7-Handed

It folds to me (531k) HJ with K♣️T♣️ and I make it 9k, it folds to Hossein Ensan (240k) on the button who makes it 25k, it folds back to me and I call.

Flop (60k) J♣️8♠️4♥️: I check, Hossein checks.
Turn (60k) 5♣️: I bet 50k, Hossein calls.
River (160k) 9♦️: We have 175k to play, I check, Hossein checks and wins with 6♠️5♠️.