POTD #190 Jason Koon and David Coleman Clash in the Poker Masters Finale

David reps AA. Does Jason believe him?

Last Thursday, I wrote about a great piece of advice Ben “Sauce123” Sulsky gave in his AMA on Run It Once. This week, as I was struggling to write this introduction, I returned to the well and read some more of his responses, and found another thoughtful answer that got my mind running. His language was a little more colloquial than the essay he wrote when he answered my question about PLO, but it was just as packed with wisdom. The question was from user rhalala:

1) Why you give so much importance at ‘playing well preflop’ when EV loss is generally very minimal... many hands have similar EVs between call/3bet etc...

Ben responded

this is nlhe specific. if u play bad u get exploited for heaps. to strawman you (sorry), it’s a bit like saying “why bother balancing in RPS, if rock is same EV as scissors?”

When you first start studying with solvers, one might see that the EV loss of opening, say, Q2s UTG only loses 0.2bbs, and think “surely I can get away with opening this at a deep-stacked table full of fish.” But the question you should be asking is not “Can I get away with opening Q2s UTG at this table?” The question is, “Can I get away with opening Q2s and Q3s and T9o and etc.?” You aren’t seeing if you can get away with one loose open; you’re seeing if you can get away with dozens of loose opens. Maybe if you pick one “fun hand” you can turn it into a winning combo at a soft table, but you can’t do it with dozens of fun combos. Even weak players will start countering your aggression if they start seeing you show down suited nine-gappers and offsuit two-gappers. Opening wide is not a hard strategy to counter, and while Q2s might only lose “0.2bbs” when you’re opening 17% of hands, it loses a lot more if you’re opening 35% of hands and your opponents start to notice.

Which brings us to today’s FT Friday, a hand where no one involved had a hand nearly as weak as Q2s, but many of the same principles I outlined above apply. When you’re looking at the EV of a specific preflop play, sometimes the number the solver spits out is insufficient, because what you want to know is how your hand does versus your opponent’s actual range. Today’s hand showcases a classic poker play that I can remember as long as I’ve been playing tournaments— sometimes you four-bet non-all-in with AA and KK to induce, and sometimes you also four bet non all-in with bluffs, but what if you did something else and four-bet small with AKo or JJ? If you four-bet shove AKo or JJ, your opponent is calling with QQ and AK themselves, but what if you four-bet small, represented AA or KK, and tried to get your opponent to hero-fold QQ or AKo? It’s a freeroll of sorts— you’re stacking off no matter what and you might induce a really big fold. Of course, like opening Q2s UTG, this play is all about balance. If you always four-bet AKo and you’ll have it 50% of the time compared to AA and KK, that means folding will always be out of the question for AK or QQ, especially if you also four-bet bluff and fold to a shove sometimes. What you want to do, and what the solver is very good at doing, is finding the exact AK four-bet-small frequency such that QQ/AK become indifferent for your opponent. In today’s hand, we look at a high-stakes spot between Jason Koon and David Coleman where they tried to walk this tightrope. Who succeeded? Read more to find out.

PGT Masters 2025 Event #10 25k NLH
(15k/30k/30k) We are at the Final Table and 6 Handed.
6th: 86k, 5th: 118k, 4th: 157k, 3rd: 220k, 2nd: 315k, 1st: 504k

Video
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David Coleman (1.25M) makes it 65k UTG with A♥️K♠️, Doug Lee (1.84M) folds, Brandon Wilson (2.78M) folds, Nick Schulman (1M) makes it 185k on the button with J♦️T♦️, Dylan Linde (1.27M) folds in the SB, Jason Koon (1.28M) makes it 400k from the BB with Q♦️Q♣️, David Coleman makes it 620k, Nick folds, Jason calls.

Flop (1.47M) Q♠️T♠️3♦️: Jason checks, David goes all-in for 630k, Jason calls and loses when David rivers a jack.