POTD #175 Final Table Friday: Leading at the GGMillion$ Final Table

Can I bluff Brazillian superstar Bruno Volkmann?

This week for leading week I have written a lot about unusual spots to lead: three-bet pots and blind vs. blind pots. One of the underlying questions of the week is “Does adding these obscure plays to my game make me any money?” and the results were mixed. They are tricky plays and I always like knowing about unusual plays because it increases my knowledge of how to play, but one only has so much time, and diving into a play they might use two or three times a year hardly seems worth it.

When I make big final tables, I often try to simplify my game. I don’t feel the need to try out obscure plays I learned toying around with the solver, because when the stakes are that high, I like making plays I know are winning. Let’s say I have a spot where I believe my hand either mixes leading and checking or is pure check: If I always check, I cannot lose much EV, but it’s possible leading in the wrong spot might cost me thousands of dollars, which is a reverse freeroll of sorts. Reverting to the safe play when stakes are high is often the sharpest move, especially if you are not confident how to navigate the turn and river after leading the flop.

However, final tables often create scenarios where a big stack gets to put a lot of pressure on short stacks, including leading a lot. Those leads can help a big stack convert a chip lead into a trophy. In extreme cases, like the hand I wrote about in POTD #54, the big stack leads 100% and the short stack never raises. So my general heuristic of “don’t try fancy plays at a high-stakes final table, because most fancy plays will be mixes and shouldn’t add much EV,” can fall apart if you are a big stack, who can often find fancy leads that is are not just mixes, but the best play. Today, I found one of those spots on the flop, but as we got deeper into the hand, it became clear that finding a tricky flop lead doesn’t mean much if you can’t play the river.

GGMillions Stream

GG Super Million$ Final Table May 25th 2021
(35k/75k/8.5k) (SB/BB/ANTE) 4 Handed
1st: $319,830 2nd: $253,440 3rd: $200,831 4th $159,142

Bruno Volkman (2.545M) raises t140k, Elio Fox (5.367M) folds OTB, David Coleman (2.948M) folds the SB, I (5.199M) call in the BB with 8♣️4♣️.

Flop (349,000) 9♦️7♠️5♣️: I bet 230,340, Bruno calls.
Turn (809,680) 6♥️: I bet 420,000, Bruno calls.
River (1,649,680) 7♥️ I check Bruno bets 544,395, I call and chop vs. Q♥️8♥️.