POTD #166 Monte Carlo Monday: $200k Invitational I Try to Trick Kayhan Mokri

But Kayhan is bullet proof

When I first started playing tournaments, I was often very obsessed with checkpoints: spots in a tournament that signify how close you are to making the money or winning it all. In my mind, checkpoints differed from bubbles because they were landmarks that made me feel like I was closer to the ultimate goal, but should not actually affect my strategy in any way. Making it to the end of day 2, that’s a checkpoint, it feels like an accomplishment— it’s something everyone who final tables the tournament will end up doing, but strategically it doesn’t mean much. Bubbles are different; they are markers in a tournament that in a tournament full of experts should lead to different strategic play.

Sometimes the difference between the two can be tough to tell. Here is an example: if you reach the stage of a tournament where registration closes, is that a checkpoint or a bubble? It’s nice to save some money and not have to re-enter a tournament, but if anything, there are spots where you should be willing to gamble to give yourself a chance to re-enter. If you have 10% of a starting stack in a $100k and can call all-in in a spot that is -5% of your $10k stack, normally, I’d say you should not burn $500 by calling all-in, but if you bust, you can re-enter the tournament with a 2% ROI. So you either double up or get a $2k rebate, not too bad. The only problem is, the $2k rebate is associated with risking another $100k, which, depending on your bankroll requirements, how much action you’re selling, or other details, might make it more likely you’re eating canned beans for breakfast, lunch and dinner in a couple years.

Some bubbles like, say, making the money of the tournament or a ladder at a final table, are big bubbles that require extreme adjustments in strategy, such as doing things like folding KK preflop. Some require smaller adjustments, like opening one pip tighter preflop or c-betting 25% pot instead of 50% pot. In Mystery Bounty tournaments, making the bounty portion of the tournament is a bubble. Sometimes even making day 2 of a tournament with multiple starting days can be a bubble if getting through means you can play a profitable side event the next day.

In today’s hand, we go back to the Triton Monte Carlo $200k Invitational, where there is a bubble in play from hand one. As a player on a pro side, even in a single re-entry tournament, you want to maximize the chance you advance to the point where the field combines and you go from playing pro-only tables to mixed tables with pros and amateurs. This effect exists in tournaments that aren’t exclusive invite-only nosebleed buy-ins. If you are playing at a tough table in any tournament, and there is about to be a redraw or your table is about to break or the day is about to end, you should try making plays that don’t sacrifice much EV, but make it more likely you advance to an easier stage of the tournament. If you can fold a hand worth 0.2bbs knowing that in an orbit your winrate will double, it could be worth it even if you rarely bust the tournament in the hand where you’re giving up 0.2bbs. In today’s hand, I battled with someone who is becoming a bit of a POTD regular, Kayhan Mohkri, when I should have waited to battle a less fearsome opponent the next day.

Triton Monte Carlo Event #8 $200K NLH INVITATIONAL
(2k/4k/4k) (SB/BB/BBA) 300k Starting Stack. Registration is Open. 8-Handed

Wiktor Malinowski folds UTG and Kayhan Mokri (387.5k) raises to 9k UTG7, it folds to me in the BB with (230.5k) and A♦️2♣️, I call.

Flop (24k) A♠️8♥️7♣️: I check, Kayhan bets 8k, I call.

Turn (40k) 4♣️: I check, Kayhan checks.

River (40k) 2♥️: I bet 13k, Kayhan calls and mucks.