POTD #161 Monte Carlo Monday: I Overplay a Straight Draw

A hand from the $125k Main Event vs Maher Nouira

The type of analytical brain that gets very good at poker tends to learn things in a framework that is rules-based. However, when one looks at equilibrium solver strategies, what you often see is controlled chaos. You might learn a simple rule like “never raise 72o preflop”, but the more accurate rule is “never raise 72o preflop, unless you are in the BB facing a SB limp and then you sometimes raise— also you sometimes raise first in from the SB if you can exert ICM pressure on the BB, but only if you are also playing a lot of open jams such that you aren’t raise/folding too many hands.” That’s a lot of caveats for even the simplest of rules. As one plays, they develop tricks, heuristics, and rules that guide their play, but as they become experienced, they’ll learn that for every concept of solver poker they learn, there will be an exception to it.

As you analyze your play more, you’ll start to anticipate exceptions— “you don’t always check here”— and doubt will start creeping into your mind. Do I really never bet middle pair here? Do I really never three-bet a suited hand as a bluff? Today’s hand is about this internal war going on in your head: You think you’ve learned a simple concept and internalized it in the same way an economics major has internalized that interest rates go up and inflation goes down. You will never waver from this simple rule … but what if this time is the exception? Well, in today’s hand, I incorrectly thought it was an exception. Did it cost me?

#10 $125K NLH MAIN EVENT | Triton Poker Monte-Carlo 2024
(2.5k/5k/5k) (SB/BB/BBA). Registration is open. 250k Starting Stack

It folds to me (278k) in the HJ, I make it 11k with 8♣️7♣️, it folds to Maher Nouira (169k) who calls in the BB.

Flop (29.5k) T♦️9♠️3♣️: Maher checks, I bet 8k, he calls.
Turn (45.5k) 5♠️: Maher checks, I bet 36k, Maher calls.
River (117.5k) J♠️: Maher checks, I shove for his final 125k, he calls with 5♥️3♥️.