POTD #149 $200k Invitational: I Miss A Chance to be a Hero

I fold queen high on the river and regret it later.

One of the first lessons I learned about playing poker was, you should only bet if you’re getting better hands to fold or worse hands to call. It’s good advice, but like all simple advice, it’s not perfect and has plenty of exceptions. Sometimes you bet because you have a range advantage and your entire range bets; sometimes you bet to deny equity; sometimes you bet because your opponent is over-folding. However, when you’re playing a hand, it can often be helpful to think of your hand as a bluff or a value bet— the problem is, sometimes your hand changes categories within a hand or even within a street. You might value bet KK on QJT32 and then use your straight blockers as a bluff once you get check-raised. You might bluff the turn with a draw, then hit it and have a value bet on the river.

Today’s hand was an unusual hand, but one I felt was appropriate to pair with POTD #147, a hand where Punnat led the turn in a spot I didn’t think he should have. In today’s hand, Punnat is the one facing a BB lead as I check-called the flop and led the turn— was it a value bet? No. Was it a bluff? Sort of. Then I missed the river and had a decision to make: Should I bluff or not? I decided to give up, faced a river bet, and snap-folded. I was so focused on determining if I should bluff the river, that I ignored a key criteria of my hand. I actually had a pretty good bluff catcher, but my cards had hit the muck before I even considered calling a bet. I don’t think my river fold cost me $200k, but the poker gods punished me for quickly folding, Punnat coolered me for the rest of my chips within an orbit..

Triton Cyprus $200K NLH Coin Rivet Invitational
(2.5k/5k/5k) (SB/BB/BBA) 300k Starting stack. Registration is still open.
The Pro and VIP fields have combined.

It folds to Punnat Punsri (291k) in the CO and he makes it 10k, Mustapha Kanit and Ramin Hajiyev cover Punnat and fold, I (148.5k) call in the BB with Q♥️J♦️.

Flop (27.5k) K♥️8♠️7♦️: I check, Punnat bets 8k, I call.

Turn (43.5k) 7♣️: I lead 11k, Punnat calls.

River (65.5k) A♦️: I check Punnat bets 33k, I fold.