I've seen a lot of FT ICM spots where you've made assumptions about what opponents will stack off are off, but as far as I can recall 100% of these mistaken assumptions end up being too tight, for instance the QQ fold for 10BB.
I think this is by far the most dangerous spot to be making those assumptions, because our opponent can be winning massive amounts of CEV BB/100 by making some of these solver disapproved plays, so if the opponent is even slightly skeptical of this output or miscalibrated compared to your expectations, he could be making plays that cost himself very small EV loss and you massive EV loss.
Especially when the output for 3b/c is AA there is literally no way he can get tighter, but huge room for him to be much looser and hurting you.
Well to be fair A5o does three bet shove in HUNL in spots like this where opponents comfortably stack of AJo. So it's not just about how tight my opponent's stack off range is, but about how often they three-bet-fold. A5o is often a fine hand to four-bet-bluff-shove. Also there are several POTDs where I stack off too wide at FTs. POTD #20 is one that immediately comes to mind
I've seen a lot of FT ICM spots where you've made assumptions about what opponents will stack off are off, but as far as I can recall 100% of these mistaken assumptions end up being too tight, for instance the QQ fold for 10BB.
I think this is by far the most dangerous spot to be making those assumptions, because our opponent can be winning massive amounts of CEV BB/100 by making some of these solver disapproved plays, so if the opponent is even slightly skeptical of this output or miscalibrated compared to your expectations, he could be making plays that cost himself very small EV loss and you massive EV loss.
Especially when the output for 3b/c is AA there is literally no way he can get tighter, but huge room for him to be much looser and hurting you.
Well to be fair A5o does three bet shove in HUNL in spots like this where opponents comfortably stack of AJo. So it's not just about how tight my opponent's stack off range is, but about how often they three-bet-fold. A5o is often a fine hand to four-bet-bluff-shove. Also there are several POTDs where I stack off too wide at FTs. POTD #20 is one that immediately comes to mind
https://www.puntoftheday.com/p/potd-20-final-table-friday-super?utm_source=publication-search
Ah yes, I forgot this example, this one is certainly counter to what I was saying.