POTD #130 Final Table Friday: AA on the Bubble Again

My sizing is too short and it cost me $

In my Reddit AMA, someone quoted a GTO Wizard coach (I am not sure who), who said "Every edge in poker is Information Asymmetry."¹ I think, like most poker axioms that get trotted around, there is some truth to that, but it’s either overstated or vague to the point where it’s almost meaningless. If I tilt very easily and someone else does not, is their knowledge of how to control their emotions “information asymmetry”? I could see the case for it, but then you are conflating information asymmetry in a game with incomplete information with the information asymmetry of one participant having more wisdom. So like most maxims that begin with an absolute word like “every,” I might generally agree with the idea, but I can’t give a full-throated endorsement of it.

The most obvious form of information asymmetry is I know my hole cards and you don’t know mine. All forms of poker have information asymmetry, but some have payoff asymmetry. In cash game poker if you lose $10 your opponent wins $10. In tournaments, if you lose $10, I might only win $8. This creates a sizing asymmetry within an actual hand; I might be betting $10 to win $6 in a spot where if you made the same bet in the same pot you’d be risking $8 to win $7. One of the hardest things about playing tournament poker is mastering different stack sizes for cEV play and as you progress in an a tournament, you also need to master how to play different stack size configurations once you are nearing or in the money. A 20bb stack vs a 15bb will play differently as midstacks at a final table than as short stacks. In today’s hand, I was a short stack on a bubble with a lot of short stacks, and I sized as if I were a big stack and greatly increased the chance I bubbled the tournament for a miniscule gain in cEV.

Pokernews Update (I was actually in the SB)

2024 PokerStars EPT Barcelona €25,000 No-Limit Hold'em II
(10k/25k/25k) (SB/BB/ANTE) 100k Starting Stack 9 left 8 cash
Payouts: €57.6k €72k €93.6k €122.5k €158.5k €208.9k, € 288.1k, €439.4k

Ottomar Ladva (930k) makes it 50k UTG9, Matt Frankland (1.6M) folds, Biao Ding (170k) folds, Stoyan Madanzhiev (145k) folds, Michel Molenaar (200k) folds, Patrick Antonius (875k) folds, Jim Collopy (925k) folds, I (340k) make it 105k in the SB with A♥️A♦️, Artisom Lasouki (825k) folds.

Flop (260k) Q♠️8♣️2♦️: I bet 25k, Ottomar calls.

Turn (310k) 4♣️: I bet 200k, Ottomar folds.