POTD #105 FT Friday: I Face a Half-Stack Raise vs Robert Heindorn

Versus an almost all-in, I try to expand my range. Was I right?

When looking at any sort of computer outputs in poker, I find it helpful to psychologize the computer. They are EV-maximizing machines, but if someone asked me “Why does the solver bet K5 here?”, an answer of “It’s the highest-EV play” is true, but not satisfying. In order to learn from outputs, humans need to hear (or read on this very blog) reasoning that makes sense to them. An example of a play that humans have internalized quite quickly and solvers have not, because it requires running FGS and most outputs one looks at are single-hand solutions, are “save your tournament life” plays. That means plays like leaving one chip behind when betting the river, half-stacking preflop, and a variety of similar plays.

However, whenever I research these sorts of plays with FGS, I notice a difference between how computers play these spots and how humans do. Humans get all-in postflop way less often than computers. Let’s say you raise to 2bbs, I have 11bbs and make it 10bbs, and you just call. So we have less than 5% pot to play postflop; the solver might recognize that on 1% of runouts you don’t get all-in postflop, and that tiny sliver of EV you gained is worth more than the EV of shoving preflop. Humans will often play that spot in a way where they try their hardest to *never* get all-in preflop, when it’s unclear if that is even the best strategy. When explaining the play to a human, it’s easy to say something like “your primary objective is to not get all-in postflop,” but without a baseline of “but you’ll still get all-in 99% of the time,” that primary objective is a little meaningless. The primary objective is really to not make some sort of disastrous fold that costs you dearly.

In today’s hand at the FT of the GG Super Million$, I get cute and try to not get AIPF when I have one of the best hands possible to shove. It didn’t end up costing me because I won an all-in, but it could have.

Triton Cyprus 2023 - Event #1 $25,000 GG SUPER MILLIONS
(125k/250k/250k) (SB/BB/BBA)
We are 6H at the FT Payouts are 918k, 623k, 415k, 339.5k, 272.5k, 211.3k

UTG (13.45M) folds, HJ (3.95M) folds, Robert Heindorn (3.1M) makes it 1.3M in the CO, I (3.9M) call K♦️Q♦️ on the button, SB (7.5M) and BB (7.6M) fold

Flop (3.225M) K♥️8♥️4♥️: Robert shoves his final 1.8M, I call and beat his A♥️J♦️